*** ANALYSIS OF THE LOUISIANA DERBY *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

ANALYSIS ON EVERY HORSE IN THE RACE BY POST POSITION ORDER. MY SELECTIONS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.

(# 1) FREE COUNTRY-Disappointing fourth place finish Feb 14 in the Sam Davis at Tampa where he had no punch in the stretch. He was bet down to the 9-5 favorite following two sharp victories, one at two turns at Gulfstream. An improved performance is possible with the addition of blinkers and drawing post one. Free Country does not have a race or a workout at the Fair Grounds which does not help his cause.

(# 2) SOUL WARRIOR-He has only a maiden win to his credit and that was at two turns over this track. Soul Warrior was tested for class in the Risen Star but only passed tired horses late racing wide throughout from post ten. He was beaten in his debut by Free Country who breaks right to his inside. Could improve breaking from post two and reunited with Bridgmohan.

(# 3) PATENA-Makes his first start for trainer Richard Dutrow following a private purchase by IEAH stables who attempts to win their second straight Kentucky Derby. Strong second to Friesan Fire in the La Comte making his first start on dirt after showing steady improvement over polytrack at Woodbine in Canada. Has good tactical speed and an inside post, both factors which can only help.

(# 4) TERRAIN-I am willing to excuse his poor performance last time out in the Delta Jackpot as the 5-2 favorite. He showed improved speed with blinkers added, but back up badly through the stretch. Solid efforts in his prior three starts over synthetic surfaces despite showing no early speed and tough trips each time. Blinkers are removed on Saturday. Terrain must overcome more than a three month layoff as well as facing three-year-olds for the first time.

(# 5) FLYING PEGASUS-Despite running second, beaten two lengths by Friesen Fire in the Risen Star, I felt he was probably best. He was forced to overcome post 12 and a very wide trip throughout. Flying Pegasus dug in gamely through the stretch in his first start around two turns. Jockey Robby Albarado who was aboard that day, elects to stay aboard with Patena. John Velazquez flies in for the mount.

(# 6) GIANT OAK-Was a non threatening fifth in the Risen Star, but would have been much closer with a cleaner trip. Giant Oak was shuffled back while racing in traffic on the turn then was blocked behind horses at the top of the stretch. Angled out widest in the stretch then finished “sneaky” well too late. He galloped out strong past the wire.

(# 7) UNO MAS-Has picked up checks in the LeComte and Risen Star, but in both he had no punch in the stretch when it counted. Uno Mas is one paced and figures to get another wide trip from post seven. Several in here look more interesting than him.

(# 8) PAPA CLEM-Is the wild card in the Louisiana Derby. He makes his first start on dirt after running four times over synthetic surfaces at Hollywood Park and Santa Anita. Papa Clem ran an excellent second last time in a Grade 2 stake at Santa Anita Defeating I Want Revenge who shipped to Aqueduct and crushed the field in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct last Saturday making his first start over dirt. Papa Clem has won both his starts around two turns. He has excellent tactical speed but could be hard used early from an outside post to be on the lead or stalking. The big question is whether or not he will have enough left for the stretch drive.

(# 9) FRIESAN FIRE-There is no doubt that he will be the post time favorite after winning both his starts at the Fair Grounds in the Grade 3 LeComte and Risen Star. In both races he showed excellent tactical speed and a strong finish. Friesan Fire has two strong workouts in preparation of the Louisiana Derby. He has shown he can adapt to racing to a quick or moderate pace. He has learned to relax early which will allow rider Saez to move into perfect striking position early on. If he can avoid a wide trip chasing an expected lively pace, he can win sweep all three Graded Stakes at the Fair Grounds.

(# 10) NOWHERE TO HIDE-Despite running a good fourth in the Risen Star off just a maiden win, it is unlikely he can improve over that performance breaking from the far outside post. Likes several others in the field, Nowhere To Hide possesses good tactical speed, but there is no doubt he will be hard used early and hung out wide throughout which will be a very tough task for him to overcome.

RACE ANALYSIS:

The Louisiana Derby is very interesting and competitive race in which several horses are eligible to win. PATENA, FLYING PEGASUS, GIANT OAK, PAPA CLEM and FRIESEN FIRE all have the credentials to take home the top prize. It is likely that Patena can improve on his second place finish in the LeComte making his first start for Dutrow which is a strong angle. FLYING PEGASUS ran big off the layoff and any further improvement can land him in the winners circle. GIANT OAK had the toughest journey in the Risen Star. He should get a lively pace to close into. With a cleaner trip he is a major danger. Papa Clem must prove he can handle dirt and avoid being caught up in a contested lively pace. These are big “ifs”. With I Want Revenge winning so easily in the Gotham, a win by Papa Clem would go a long way in pointing out that the three year olds in southern California are a better group than those elsewhere at this point in time. Friesan Fire is a deserving favorite. He loves the track, has a great trainer in Larry Jones and is two for two with rider Saez aboard. His outside post and the fact that he could be over bet is enough to take a shot against him.

SELECTIONS:

1st-PATENA
2nd-GIANT OAK
3th-FRIESAN FIRE
4th-FLYING PEGASUS
5th-PAPA CLEM