*** FLORIDA DERBY SELECTIONS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

FLORIDA DERBY

Toby The Coal Man - He demonstrated noticeable improvement when the blinkers where removed on January 25 by trainer Nick Zito. More recently, he was the victor of stirring stretch battle at Gulfstream Park on March 5, eking out the win to score by a desperate nose. Obviously, he is ambitiously spotted stepping up into a Grade 1 stakes contest off that showing.

Quality Road - He is undoubtedly one of the “now” horses campaigning along the Triple Crown Trail. Quality Road was ultra-impressive when annexing the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 28 while adding Lasix and switching pilots to John Velazquez. The Jimmy Jerkens trained runner was always well within himself as he stalked lively fractions down the backstretch, subsequently taking the lead upon entering the stretch. He then drew away when asked, finishing powerfully to score by 4 1/4 widening lengths. In the Florida Derby, he will be asked to carry his speed around two turns and stretch-out to nine furlongs. Bred by his owner, Edward P. Evans, a longtime patron of Thoroughbred racing, he appears well-equipped to successfully handle both assignments as he possesses a major tactical edge over his main rivals in a race that lacks quality early pace.

Casey's On Call - Faces a tall order today returning to the main track for a low percentage trainer. Claimed by his current connections for $75,000 on February 19 off a wire-to-wire victory, Casey’s On Call has never won beyond seven furlongs or around two turns. Needless to say, he will have to wait for another day to accomplish either of those aforementioned tasks.

Dunkirk - A $3.7 million-dollar purchase as a yearling in 2007, Dunkirk literally hit the ground running when making his debut on January 24 at Gulfstream. Despite a bit of a slow start and some traffic woes that day, he ran away when clear in the stretch to win by daylight in an auspicious debut effort. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Dunkirk punched his ticket for the Florida Derby with a professional victory in an early level Allowance contest on February 19. After tracking the early pace from the outset, he eventually drew clear when set down for the drive by jockey Garrett Gomez, and was 4 3/4 lengths to the good in a comfortable victory. Today, Dunkirk takes the acid test for class in his sternest test to date. Dunkirk is clearly a runner with potential, and certainly has blossomed within a relatively short period of time. His performance in the Florida Derby will serve as a good barometer to determine whether this million-dollar baby is ready for prime time.

Sincero - With his lone career victory coming at Calder in November, things do not bode well today for Sincero. Despite being equipped with Lasix in his last two starts over this track, Sincero was a well-beaten third to Dunkirk on February 19. Suffice it to say, I prefer others.

Theregoesjojo - A runner of intrigue, Theregoesjojo easily handled probable favorite Quality Road off a prolonged layoff on January 10. Exhibiting not even the slightest sign of rustiness that day, Theregoesjojo rallied strongly in the stretch that day to win going away by nearly three-lengths. Trained by Ken McPeek, Theregoesjojo negotiated his final furlong in roughly 11 4/5 seconds that day as his optimistic connections geared him up for the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth S. in February. Simply put, nobody was beating Quality Road in that race as the winner exacted his revenge over Theregoesjojo. Theregoesjojo was clearly second best in his initial try beyond seven furlongs, closing willing for the place to best the recently-injured Beethoven by four-lengths. Exactly where Theregoesjojo fits in this year’s three-year-old picture in all likelihood will be determined today as he tackles Quality Road in the rubber match.


Stately Character - After breaking his maiden in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes last September at Calder, Stately Character has been on the fringes since. He closed well to finish a close-up second on March 6, but “eye-opening” improvement is necessary to give him even cursory consideration today.

SELECTIONS:

1ST: QUALITY ROAD
2ND: THEREGOESJOJO
3RD: DUNKIRK