Experience in life usually counts for something. And I suppose it should. All of us, at one time or another, have strived to attain that so-called ‘dream job’, only to be passed over because we did not have the required ‘experience’. Not so much with the “Run for the Roses”, when twenty applicants will apply for their ‘dream job’ of sorts, as they hope to be crowned the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner. Experience? None required. All you need to be is three-years-of-age, and boast enough graded stakes earning to get to a stall in the starting gate for the final interview. Sure, they all have varying degrees of accomplishments on their resumes. But, none of their previous successes insure that they are capable of carrying out the task at hand. This is a difficult job you see, even though it only lasts for about two minutes, and many of these applicants will be found wanting. Even the job of paring down the list of candidates to a workable number is a job. In previous years it was at least more easily attainable but has now become a monumental task. There was a time when guidelines could be used by looking to the major prep races such as the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial, and the Blue Grass Stakes, for probable winners because those races were fertile ground for producing past Derby winners. That is no longer the case, as two of the last three winners of the “Run for the Roses” made their last start in the Florida Derby.
Many handicappers prefer to simply look at the ‘black and white’, the past performance lines of each runner, painfully forgetting, sometimes to their detriment, the ‘human factor’ involved. This area of searching out winners has changed as well. Household trainer names such as Wayne Lukas, Nick Zito, and Bob Baffert are no longer the dominant force that they once were. In fact, last year, Richard Dutrow Jr. gained immediate notoriety by saddling Big Brown to emerge victorious in the 2008 Kentucky Derby, despite bad feet and post twenty. Who’s to say another newcomer will not be successful in 2009 in their initial try at Churchill? In addition, how an applicant will adjust and more importantly perform in his new surroundings is of paramount importance. With the advent of synthetic surfaces, the job has become even more cumbersome to discern who will handle a conventional dirt track, never mind the quirky Churchill Downs surface.
This year’s cast of Kentucky Derby hopefuls is a very talented bunch, and it runs extremely deep when compared to previous years. Not one participant holds a perceived edge over someone else. In fact, the word ‘parity’ could be used to accurately describe this year’s three-year-olds, and I do not mean that in a disparaging way. This is simply an evenly-matched group of sophomores that will assemble for the 2009 Run for the Roses. Friesan Fire, Pioneerof the Nile, have each won two races at their winter home base, in preparation for the Derby. I Want Revenge headed east to make his mark, with such runners as Musket Man, Papa Clem and General Quarters carving out their own niche in the Midwest. That does not even take into account Dunkirk, who ran bang-up efforts in their final prep events. Regardless, all runners will meet at Churchill Downs as they continue their quest for fame and glory. As a result, you can see selecting the right horse for the Derby is not an easy task by any means. There are many factors which must be weighed, and taken into consideration, in order to determine the right applicant for the job. Diligence, concerning this selection process, will not always guarantee success, as there are many factors which cannot be quantified, not the least of which is a ‘gut feel’. Once the gates open, everyone is afforded an equal chance at victory. That said, a little bit of luck can go a long way, and ultimately may be the deciding factor as to who makes history this year. Good luck to all.
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