PREAKNESS PRELUDE BY THE WIZARD by The Wizard on Friday, May 08, 2009

As this year’s result of the Kentucky Derby bears out, there is simply no "magic formula" for picking the winner of the "Run for the Roses". And, for that matter, any thoroughbred race you handicap. Yet, year after year, handicappers spend hours trying to isolate the main contenders for the Derby, by speed figures, pace analysis, pedigree, connections, recency, last-out- performance, jockeys, and whatever other ‘pet handicapping aspect’ they hold dear in order to select the winner. As you well know, none of that worked in 2009. I don’t use speed figures in my handicapping, but to help explain Mind The Bird’s mind boggling improvement in the Derby, I will illustrate by using the BRIS numbers (generated by Brisnet.com). For example, looking at the first two finishers of this year’s Kentucky, Derby, The winner Mine That Bird and second place finisher Pioneerof the Nile, had never recorded a triple digit BRIS speed figure. In fact, Mine That Bird’s highest speed figure to date was 90, in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita He ran last of twelve that day. With that in mind, Mine That Bird’s electrifying performance at Churchill Downs two weeks ago obviously came out of left field. His speed figure increased by twenty points. (Did I mention that he was winless in 2009, and could do no better than second in a stake at Sunland Park, in New Mexico?) While I take my hat off to Mine That Bird, and his connections, his performance under the Twin Spires is a ‘head-scratcher’ to say the least. His victory will be remembered on two fronts, first, for its implausibility, and second, for the manner in which he accomplished his victory in an ‘Arazi-like’ manner. (Arazi won the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a similar explosive run from far off the pace). Only time will tell whether Mind That Bird’s Derby win was a complete fluke, or if the stars were in perfect alignment, as he delivered the race of a lifetime.

When handicapping the Preakness, one automatically looks at the Derby winner, and whether or not he can replicate that effort in Baltimore. Also, any horse that hit-the-board at Churchill Downs, is a good starting point as well, because it is indicative of recent good form. In addition, horses that were hindered by troubled trips in the Derby, might have been compromised by the track condition, or simply ran poorly with a substantive excuse, can be looked upon as contenders as well. There will obviously be some defections heading to Baltimore, and some new faces will emerge also. The Preakness is yet another handicapping puzzle to solve, one which should be scrutinized to the fullest.