WIZARD SCORES WITH RACHEL IN THE PREAKNESS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009

HERE WAS MY WRITE UP:

RACHEL ALEXANDRA

Once in awhile, a horse runs a race in which you are mesmerized by the performance. You never forget where you were at the time. I was at Churchill Downs for this year’s Kentucky Oaks. Since I was stationed in the press box, just a stone’s throw from the paddock, I watched the Oaks on a large screen television. Rachel Alexandara was attempting to win her fifth straight race. As the overwhelming 1-5 favorite, it was just a matter of how many lengths she would win by, against six other fillies that were way overmatched. Trainer Bob Baffert, who saddled the second choice in the wagering, said a couple days before the race, “it would only be fair if Rachel Alexandra gave us a 1/16th of a mile head start, and maybe we would have chance to defeat her”. The head start would not have mattered, because she would have won anyway. Rachel’s margin of victory of 20 ¼ lengths was not what impressed me, as much as the way she did it.

Prior to the race, I was in the paddock to observe all the fillies entered in the Oaks. I looked closely at each filly in their stalls, and when they were saddled, took a few spins around the walking ring. I had never seen Rachel up close and personal. If looks could kill, her six rivals should have stayed in the barn. What impressed me most about Rachel, was her physical makeup. I had never seen a three year old filly that was as long as she was from her regal head to the end of her hind quarters. Her coat glistened under the gray skies. When Jockey Calvin Borel was hoisted into the saddle, Rachel immediately arched her head towards the ground and both hers ears pricked up to the skies. Her eyes moved left and right to acknowledge the many eyes glued upon her as she made her way through the tunnel. It was game time. She was ready to step onto the field and acknowledge to the crowd of 150,000 who had traveled far and wide, that it was Rachel Alexandra who they came out to see, and she was not going disappoint them. The prior nine races on the card were just a dress rehearsal for the main event.

Through the years, I have seen several fillies defeat their male counterparts in major stakes races. In the 1980 Kentucky Derby, Genuine Risk defeated the boys by one length. In 1988 Winning Colors scorched the boys in the Santa Anita Derby as a prelude to the Derby four weeks later. In a stirring finish, Winning Color defeated one of the toughest fields ever assembled for the Run for the Rose, by a neck. In her wake were Risen Star, Seeking The Gold, Forty Niner and Regal Classic, who all went on to win several prestigious Grade 1 events. In 2007, Rags To Riches upset Curlin in the Belmont Stakes. Curlin was coming off an impressive victory in the Preakness, and later went on to be horse of the year. Ruffian, who was the best filly I have ever seen in over forty years, was entered in what was called “The Great Match Race”. Ruffian would square off against Foolish Pleasure, who was considered the best male in the land. The two hooked up right out of the gate with Ruffian securing her position inside her rival. Both fought tooth and nail down the backstretch. The pace was fast and furious as the two gladiators moved down the backstretch. Ruffian put her nose in front, and it was just a matter of time, that she would kiss her rival goodbye and good riddance. In a gut wrenching blink of an eye, Ruffian broke down. The crowd was stunned and horrified, and then tears flowed throughout the cavernous Belmont Park.

Rachael Alexandra is poised to add her name to the list of great fillies that defeated their male counterparts. If she runs her race, the Preakness will be added to her lofty resume. The question Rachel must answer Saturday is: can she fend off several rivals, whose jockey’s will be eyeballing her as soon as the gate opens? Rachel will have to earn the victory, as it will not be handed to her. Since she has not faced a stern battle in all four starts this year, it will be interesting to see how she will react to the heat. There are three scenarios: When the onslaught starts on the far turn, Rachel could succumb to the pressure. I don’t envision this happening. The second is she could be caught up in a hard fought battle the length of the stretch, while feeling the whip from Borel for the first time since she was a two year old. The third scenario, which is possible, is Rachel Alexandra cruising to the lead on the far turn, and drawing off to an easy victory.

The three year olds that Rachel will be facing in the Preakness are ripe for a quality filly to defeat. Only Quality Road, who was victorious in the Florida Derby, showed me any brilliance. Unfortunately, he suffered from two quarter cracks, which prevented him from making the Derby. He would have been my top selection. When I look over the horses that raced in the Derby, several looked alike in ability. Mine That Bird who demolished field at 50-1, may have exposed them as just an ordinary bunch that have distance limitations. Obviously, you can say that Mine That Bird clearly relished the wet track, and his other eighteen rivals did not. All this will be answered in the Preakness, which is run at 1 3/16th mile. There is a slight chance as of this writing, that there may be some rain on Saturday. Most likely the track will be dry. If so, no horse will have any excuses unless they suffer a bad trip. With Rachel Alexandra’s superb tactical speed, and the fact that there is not much early lick in the field, especially when Hull was taken out of the race to await a stake on Belmont Stakes day. Rachel is more likely than not, to a have a good journey over a course that favors her running style. With seven wins, and two second place finishes in ten career starts, she clearly knows her way to the winners circle. Her lone defeat was in her debut going 4 ½ furlongs at Churchill.

Soon after the Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra was sold for a reported ten million dollars to Jess Jackson, who also owns Curlin. She was transferred into the barn of Steve Asmussen, whom I consider one of the very best horseman in the country. However, I must tip my hat to her former trainer Hal Wiggins, who did an unbelievable job developing Rachel Alexandra. This change is unfortunate, but Jackson put up his money, and his decision to switch trainers is his prerogative. At least he has decided to keep Calvin Borel aboard the filly, who has proven to have great rapport with her. Borel is five for five on Rachel. His confidence is definitely in another stratosphere at the present time. When jockeys are in this kind of zone, horses know it. Rachel is fully aware of this. When you add up all the ingredients, it will take a big performance by her foes on Preakness day to upend a potential superstar. Her rival trainers know it, and so do all the others, who have witnessed Rachel Alexandra’s recent triumphs.

What should we expect from Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness? I am aware she is the 8-5 favorite, and must win breaking from the far outside post (13). Nevertheless, I believe she could be something real special, while the others are not. Because of her draw, Rachel is expected to be loaded last. This is a plus, as the other horses inside of her, will be standing in the gate longer than her, especially the horses breaking from inside posts. Rachel Alexandra is no Big Brown at this point of her career, but when he won from post twenty in last year’s Kentucky Derby, many people said he could not overcome the draw. I felt it did not matter. Big Brown had proven he was far superior than then his opposition. Rachel Alexandra has superb tactical speed, with no horses breaking to her outside. She always breaks well from the gate, which is imperative on Saturday. If she does, Borel can watch the race develop inside of him, and take up a stalking position in third or fourth position. Rachel likes racing outside of horses. Hopefully Borel does not lose too much ground into the first turn. He does have the length of the stretch to avoid this. Rachel Alexandra, has never lost when she has the lead at the top of the stretch. Her race will be won or lost midway on the far turn, when Borel makes his move. If she can bust the race open at that point, I expect the rest of the field to be running for second money. If Rachel is unable to go by, and has to work hard to pass the front runner, this will be the moment of truth, as to whether or not she is as good as I think she is.