BIAS, HORSES TO WATCH AND OTHER INFO by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

THERE WAS NO BIAS TODAY ON DIRT OR GRASS.

HORSES TO WATCH:

(Race 8) CHACAHULA CHOICE
(Race 10) MR. PORTER

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RACE ELEVEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

19-1 upset by STATICE who showed improved speed sitting in mid pack. Moved after the 3-5 favorite to that ones outside and got up right at the wire. No excuse for heavy favorite LORD OF THUNDER who took back to sit off the duel of 2 longshots. Moved before winner to take lead mid stretch, but unable to hold on. Rest of the field showed little.

*** RACE ELEVEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 1) LORD OF THUNDER Added blinkers while dropping to this level last time. The result was a fine 2nd place finish behind a fast colt. Lord Of Thunder pressed the pace to the lane before losing touch with the winner. The rest of the field was strung out far behind him. This gelding's effort was good enough to win 95% of the races of these bottom level maiden claimers. It is a bit surprising that Mike Stidham does not jump him in class off that one. 3yo is very likely to be going home to a new barn following the race. Graham figures to have him on cruise control. (# 7) STARS OF FREEDOM Had trained well up to his debut but was never close in a $50,000 maiden claimer. This is a big class drop by Pat Mouton, whose 2nd time starters improve notoriously. Worked a sharp half mile in :48 flat a week ago. Stable rider Perrodin up. (# 3) LUCIOUS VORENUS Raced evenly and checked in a distant 3rd behind Lord Of Thunder. That was an improved performance and now he makes his 3rd start since shipping down from Canada. Figures to be gaining ground down the lane. From the solid Mark Casse barn. (# 4) BACK OFF SATAN Has never been close in his three starts against maiden special company although he has shown some speed in his drills. Stall pulls the plug on him this afternoon and he could easily be competitive with this kind. Curt Bourque stays with him. (# 8) SIGNET RING Returns making 2nd start and first start at the Fair Grounds. Drops sharply in class and could improve here. Gets big rider change.

*** IMPORTANT INFORMATION *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

NOTE: FOLLOWING MY ELEVENTH RACE OBSERVATIONS, I WILL PROVIDE YOU WITH THE FINAL TRACK BIAS INFO, HORSES TO WATCH FROM TODAY AND OTHER INFO.

RACE TEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

7-1 winner MYOLDMANSAM stalked duel wide into the turn. Surged to the lead at the top of the stretch. Faced stiff pressure from MR. PORTER late but proved best. MR PORTER raced very wide and outside winner all the way. Never stopped trying. BANDIDO was slammed from both sides leaving the gate. Recovered to race in good striking position throughout. Had dead aim late, but could not close any ground. TOP 2 WERE CLEARLY BEST OF THE REST.

*** RACE TEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 7) MR. PORTER Comes off a fine try in the Dixie Poker Ace in which he stalked a hot pace while racing in hand. He had nothing to offer in the lane but will appreciate the class drop and he is at his best around one turn. He earned a good figure with his narrow defeat at this level on Nov. 22. (# 3) BANDIDO Has been winless in his last 9 starts after winning 5 of his first 7. Ran 2nd in his last two against this kind and is reliable for another good effort. Last out he raced in mid pack into the stretch then tried hard but was unable to run down the winner. Close 4th behind the brilliant Star Guitar on Champions Day. (# 4) METEOR IMPACT Switches back to dirt which he clearly prefers. Steady improvement in prior 3 dirt starts off a long layoff. Loves this course and distance, but has not won since 2006. (# 1) BROTHER BEAN could be the speed breaking from the rail. Faces tougher here and has not won since April 2007. (# 6) MYOLDMANSAM lots of gaps in his races, but has been working well for return.

RACE NINE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

TOP 2 FINISHERS WERE MUCH THE BEST OF THE REST. 3-1 winner TURFISTE rated outside in 3rd. Moved top of the stretch to go after front runner BIG PUSH. Had to work hard to get by that one, prevailing nearing the wire. Big Push was game in defeat. Never stopped trying right to the finish.

*** RACE NINE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 2) BIG PUSH In his first start of the meet this colt lost a narrow decision after a fine effort in the Sugar Bowl. He found himself on a clear early lead then faced severe pressure at the top of the stretch. Came again late in a fine effort. In the one mile G3 LeComte last out he tired after chasing the pace for 6F. He is from the first crop of Black Mambo, but his grandsire Kingmambo is the sire of many high quality turf runners. His only try on the turf was a decent 3rd place finish in his debut. (# 6) UNBRIDLE’S DREAM Has been tried under various conditions but his best race by far was his maiden win in a turf sprint. Freshened by Asmussen after chasing the classy Patina in a 1-1/16 mile stakes on the Woodbine poly. Has two modest drills since shipping south. Late run could make him a factor at a price. (# 5) PROTEUS Big improvement Dec 27 in turf debut. Goes from maidens to a stake, which is a major jump in class. (# 7) TURFISTE best form has been longer. Must prove he can cut back to 5 ½ and get the job done. At 5-2 with 8 minutes to go, I feel he is overbet.

RACE EIGHT OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

3-1 MALIBU MONKEY took lead early when CHACAHULA CHOICE broke awkwardly. Rated well on front end and held well to the wire. CHACAHULA who was forced to chase the pacesetter from the start. Steadied several times along the rail while full of run. Swung wide into the stretch to go after the Monkey, but could only hold 2nd in a game effort. SANTONIO raced last, far off the pace early on. Made up ground into the stretch, then came home quickest of them all.

EQUIPMENT CHANGES by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 13) SANTONIO adds fronts back on but wore them on when victorious Aug 23 2008.

*** RACE EIGHT ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 3) MALIBU MONKEY With two recent 2nd place finishes under these conditions this 4yo is given a slim edge. A major horse for course, he has won or placed in 5 of his 6 starts here. He also has good tactical speed and a versatile style. (# 11) MASTER EWING MALOY Turf specialist only raced on dirt once in the past 18 months but it was one of his best races. Larry Robideaux pulls the plug on him today following a decent effort against $30,000 claimers. If the 7yo has anything left he could easily be the winner. (# 4) CHACAHOULA CHOICE Raced in close contention into deep stretch in each of his last two, both against tougher company. This class drop, below the level where Chatters claimed him three starts back, makes him a strong factor. 5yo hit the board in 8 of his last 10. (# 13) SANTONIO Despite being hurt by his deep closing style this 4yo has been quite consistent. He came from far back to finish 3rd last time, just behind Malibu Monkey. Donnie Meche knows him well. May not get the fast pace that he would prefer. (# 9) HE’S A SLEWVESCENT makes 1st start at this $5,000level. Has tactical speed to be in good position from the start. (# 8) PLEASANT PACKY won easily in last, but had a perfect rail trip and faces tougher here.

RACE SEVEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

Despite adding fronts for the 1st time in her career, 8 year old DURRYMANE won anyway. Sit a perfect stalking trip tracking 2 longshots along the rail. Slipped through on the fence to take command and open up in mid stretch and had enough left to hold off the favorite PATRICIA who was closing best of all. QUEEN OF THE RIDGE rallied widest, outside Patricia in the stretch, and stayed on well for 3rd.

EQUIPMENT CHANGES RACE 7 by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 1) DURRYMANE adds front bandages. She has never worn fronts in 53 career starts.

*** RACE SEVEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 2) PATRICIA No threat in a 2nd tier optional claimer although she was going well at the wire. The 7yo would have been competitive at that level but has apparently slowed some. This class drop gives her the easiest chance of her career. While she is not as fast as she once was, she still looks pretty salty with these fillies. Corey Lanerie rides this turf course as well as any of them. (# 6) JAMBALAYA JOY Stalked the pace all the way before weakening in the late stages. She held on for 4th in a race she apparently needed. Asmussen used Erik McNeil, his 2nd string rider, that day but switches to a journeyman pilot today. Has needed this drop into claiming company for a long time. (# 9) DOC’S DELIGHT Closed well for 3rd at this level, her first time in a claimer. Goes via claim from Asmussen to Barger, not exactly an upgrade. If she can hold her form for the new barn she will be a strong contender. She was competitive with much tougher fillies in Texas and Oklahoma. (# 10) SOUTHERN RANSOM Has 19 in-the-money finishes from her 35 starts but only 3 of them were wins. She has not seen the winner's circle since 2007. Still, she closed steadily for 2nd last time with Doc's Delight behind her. Will need a heads up ride from Campbell to avoid a wide trip from post 10. (# 1) DURYMANE need last off a layoff. Takes a confident boost in class for top trainer Autrey and is entered for the full $15,000. Dangerous speed from post 1 in a field which lacks much early lick.

*** MID DAY BIAS UPDATE *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

Through six races, the track is playing honest. There has been only one grass race and front runners ran 1-2, but both were aided by a slow pace.

RACE SIX OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

6-1 REBECCA’S VALENTINE finally found a field she could beat, so after 30 starts, she has won her 2nd race. Closed into a quick pace to easily draw clear from PRECIOUS POLLY who did amazingly well to stay on for 2nd after running off with 5 minutes to go. Chased inside then taken outside for her stretch run. Nothing fired behind these two.

WILL RUN by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

PRECIOUS POLLY will run. Big negative when horse runs off with only a few minutes left.

LOOSE HORSE RACE SIX by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 1) PRECIOUS POLLY threw her rider and ran off with 5 minutes to go. Outrider has her and she is being led back. I will let you know if she will be a late scratch or not.

*** RACE SIX ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 7) MIMI’S BOSS SAUCE In a field loaded with weak speed this late runner figures to get a hot pace to rally into. She gained 5 lengths in the final furlong when she finished 3rd at this level last time. Gets in light with apprentice Dustin Dugas back aboard. Looks marginally best in a tough race. (# 1) PRECIOUS POLLY Drops back to the bottom following a decent 4th place finish against $10,000 claimers. 5yo mare showed better late energy and seems on the upswing. Has some tactical speed, but has not been showing it. Switches to Cody Meche. (# 6) STARBUILDER 5yo mare has not missed the board on a fast track in more than a year. She comes off a close-up 4th place finish under these conditions in which she set all of the pace. Contender despite facing quite a bit of other speed. Graham got to know her last out. (# 8) RED KEENAN 6yo mare got an easy lead and, not surprisingly, recorded the best race of her career. There is no chance of that happening in this field, but has shown that she can be rated. Jock Jamie Theriot is an excellent speed rider.

RACE FIVE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(SPEED RAN 1-2 AS A RESULT OF A VERY SLOW PACE). 17-1 upset by LEAD ON who shadowed LUDWIG from the start. Both battled tooth and nail to the wire, with Lead On just getting his nose in front. TEMPLAR’S CUP was best. Sat on the rail in 4th until angling out at the top of the stretch. Blocked behind horses until jock found a seam very late. Once clear, he was cutting into the top two’s margin quickly and would have won in a few more jumps. FAITHOPE closed well from last against the slow pace racing widest in the stretch. On the improve.

RACE FIVE EQUIPMENT CHANGES by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 5) LEAD ON, gets fronts back on returning from an 8 month layoff.

*** RACE FIVE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 3) TEMPLAR’S CUP The gray 6yo appeared well placed in his first start off the Tom Amoss claim on Nov. 30. He was narrowly beaten by another tough nut named Antrim County in a race that was rained off the grass. Theriot made a quick but premature move on the turn to take a late lead but was unable to hold off the winner. Last time out he was the victim of an extremely slow pace. He was 4 lengths off the lead after 6 furlongs in 1:16 3/5. Despite a final quarter in :23 2/5 on a yielding course he came up a neck short. The winner sat a dream trip, just off the walking fractions. There is not a lot of pace in this field either, but the gray has tactical speed and all Theriot needs is to use some of it. Amoss gives him 7 weeks to reload and Templar's Cup continues to train sharply. (# 4) SALIC LAW In his first start for trainer Howard Alonzo the 8yo closed fast to miss narrowly in a strong open claimer. He again closed with a rush last time, this time coming up a neck short in the slop. Sharper than he has been in at least two years. He is the only serious rival to Templar's Cup. Curt Bourque handles him great. (# 7) LUDWIG Neatly white 7yo beat slightly easier at Hawthorne in October and edged Templar's Cup two starts back. He was the beneficiary of the trip of a lifetime when Lanerie rated him just off an impossibly slow pace. He took the lead from the tired pacesetter and held off 'Cup. Lanerie rides this course as well as any jock on the grounds. (# 2) FAITHOPE was a game winner Jan 3 cutting back to today's distance. Overcame a very slow pace. Steps up in class facing tough older hard knocking horses. Inside post can only help. Foley barn has been red hot.

RACE FOUR OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

2-1 favorite SKEPTIC chased loose on the lead leader MISS CARMELITE who set a very quick pace. Wore that one down, and drew clear. Perfect trip. TAPIDSDONTLIE picked up a tired Carmelite very late. Another with a perfect journey. SAMBA’S RUN sat outside in 4th. Good position to rally top of the stretch, but came up empty in a poor performance. TIMELESS MISS showed no speed and was far back throughout in a dismal effort. Did not pull up well apparently sore.

1st time FRONTS in race 4 by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 5) SKIRTING DISASTER adds front bandages for the 1st time in her 5 race career.

*** RACE FOUR ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 3) SAMBA’S RUN Like most of Larry Jones' Delaware shippers this filly needed her first start here. That was just her 2nd race since July. She was highly regarded following her debut win in June but went to the sidelines after her 2nd start. She enters this contest off a fast half mile breeze. Stable rider Gabriel Saez up. (# 1) SKEPTIC Chased all the way and held on for 3rd going a mile in a strong key race field. Although she is in for a higher claiming tag this looks like an easier spot. That effort projects her as a top contender with this cut back to 6 furlongs. Will be stalking from the rail. (# 7) TIMELESS MISS Gets a long overdue drop into claiming company after being continually overmatched against allowance and stakes fillies. Quick filly looks like the speed of the field and could easily shake loose. Veteran trainer Spanky Broussard has always been deadly with runners dropping into a claimer for the first time.

RACE THREE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

5-1 winner TENSAS PALMYRA stalked the loose leader and 7-5 favorite BOOZZY from the start. Cruised past that one at the top of the stretch, and drew clear with complete authority. Boozy was all out to hold 2nd over SILK STREAM who sat a perfect inside trip. MY STORM ANGEL and MARSH ANGEL, were well back all the way. Both showed in their debut that they want grass only.

*** RACE THREE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 1) MY STORMY ANGEL Storm Day filly finished an even 3rd in her turf course debut against a strong field of maidens. She is not bred for the grass and should improve sharply with this switch to dirt. Morris Nicks' runners typically improve the 2nd time around and he also does well with the turf to dirt move. The rider switch from Albarado to P Val is interesting as Albarado is not riding in the race. (# 5) MARSH ANGEL Like My Stormy Angel, this filly ran well in her turf debut even though she is not bred for the surface. With two useful drills since her race she seems sure to improve this afternoon. Mark Casse, who is having a strong meet, has positive stats with the turf to dirt move. Goes from Campbell to Mena. (# 8) LEEVILLE After a lackluster debut she was ambitiously spotted in stakes company where she finished a very decent mid-pack. She has the even-paced running style that is often effective at a middle distance. Very likely has more talent than she has shown so far. Could be the upsetter. (# 6) TENSAS PALMYRA After a lackluster debut she was ambitiously spotted in stakes company where she finished a very decent mid-pack. She has the even-paced running style that is often effective at a middle distance. Very likely has more talent than she has shown so far. Could be the upsetter. (# 4) BOOZY raced evenly when 3rd in her debut. Took some money for a trainer who does not win with 1sters. Bred well to handle this stretch out in distance.

RACE TWO OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

13-1 upset winner LACY TOO raced in mid pack outside. Closed strongly in the stretch to win going away. Was set up well by a quick pace and a speed meltdown between 4-5 favorite STYLINFROMTHEGITGO and NEVADA ERLTON. LA COWBOY stalked the duel outside. Urged hard to take the lead at the top of the stretch. Unable to open up any real lead, then was swallowed up by the winner, failing to hold 2nd.

*** RACE TWO ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 6) LA COWBOY 4yo was well bet in a similar spot but was unable to recover after being forced to check on the far turn. He was taken by Steve Klesaris, who has been quite active at the claim box. Klesaris is not having one of his better meetings but is one of the sharpest claiming trainers around. The 4yo will be receiving Lasix for the first time in his 15th start. Klesaris shows a big flat bet profit when adding Lasix to a new acquisition. (# 1) STYLINFROMTHEGITGO Held a clear lead all the way in his win over "two lifetime" claimers last time. Those conditions often produce a peak performance. This class drop makes sense as he is moving to the next condition. The 4yo has been competitive with tougher in the past and does not need the lead. May prefer breaking from an outside post. (# 5) NEVADA ERLTON 5yo has looked sharp in all 3 starts since returning from an 8-month layoff. He comes off a gate to wire win over a rather soft field of non-winners twice. 5yo is still lightly raced and he fires a big shot every time out. He is another who likes the lead but does not need it. (# 4) PRIVATE CHERRY Lightly raced 7yo has had a hard time putting more than a couple of races together. He finished an even 3rd against this kind at Delta Downs last out. A 5F breeze since that race bodes well for another good effort. Can contend at a square price in a weak field.

RACE ONE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

BIANCHI’S BOY broke thru gate and ran off about 70 yards prior to the start. Reloaded and off very slow when the gate in his stall malfunctioned. Far back all the way. THROW THE RACE OUT. You are entitled to a refund. FORTUNATE JET shook clear early. Wired the field, holding on well late under intense pressure. CREDIT ONLY sat a perfect inside-out trip. Dead aim from the 1/8th pole, but could not get up. No excuse. ROYALINSKY chased winner. Held well to hold 3rd late. Favorite RUN WITH ANGELS in perfect striking position turning for home widest. Had nothing stretch in an awful effort!

**** VERY IMPORTANT INFORMATIONS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

NOTE: IF YOU WAGERED ON # 6 BIANCHI'S BOY, YOU WILL GET A REFUND. DECLARED A NON STARTER WHEN THE STARTING GATE HE WAS BREAKING FROM MALFUNCTIONED, WHICH COST HIM A CLEAN START. GET YOUR REFUND!!!

BROKE THROUGH GATE by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 6) BIANCHI'S BOY broke through gate prior to the start

*** RACE ONE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

(# 6) BIANCHI’S BOY After blasting Churchill maiden claimers two starts back he was ambitiously placed against allowance company. He stalked the pace for a half mile in a race that featured a slow pace and fast final time. The 2nd place finisher, Cool Hero, came back to win and then finish a close 2nd against 2nd tier allowance foes. 5yo was highly regarded earlier in his career. This drop into a conditioned claimer makes him the one to beat. Only question is if 6 furlongs is too short for him. (# 3) FORTUNATE JETT Earned a big figure with his near miss on opening weekend but had little behind him. He came back to finish 3rd against a field like this one on the grass. The winner of that race won a Delta Downs allowance in his next start. Given the time between starts that he prefers while switching back to dirt. Well placed by high % trainer Morris Nicks. Must overcome a possible duel with (1A) ROYALINSKY. (# 5) RUNS WITH ANGELS 4yo has been stuck at this level for a long time but fires every time. He has been a beaten favorite in 7 of his last 10 starts. Although beaten at 3-5 last time he contested the pace in a fast race. Amoss experimented with blinkers off two starts back, but that wasn't the answer. Now he tries a rider switch from Theriot to Graham. Should sit a perfect tracking trip behind possible hotly contested battle up front. (# 4) CREDIT ONLY goes grass to dirt which is a strong angle for hot trainer Margolis. Tactical speed to sit a good trip. Makes 1st start in a claimer. Negative is that he has several gaps in his record and has not won a race since November of 2007.

TRACK CONDITIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

A beautiful day in New Orleans. Main track is FAST, the Grass is FIRM. The rails are out twenty feet on the turf course. This usually helps speed and hinders the closers, but that is not always the case at the Fair Grounds, because of the long stretch and wide sweeping turns.

INTRODUCTION (JAN 31) by The Wizard on Saturday, January 31, 2009

WELCOME TO “LIVEWITHTHEWIZARD” AT THE FAIRGROUNDS

My format for Saturday’s card at the Fair Grounds will be the following: I will provide you with detailed analysis on horses I feel are contenders for all ten races. This analysis will be posted no later than ten minutes to post. Once the horses are in the paddock, and enter the track for the post parade, I will post any observations that I feel are important. I will always keep you informed if I notice any betting patterns. Following the race, after I watch the pan shot as well as the head on, I will point out important trips and horses to watch when they run back, only if I have a strong opinion. I will keep you abreast of any prevailing track bias throughout the day. Following the day’s program, I will list those horses, which might be good betting opportunities the next time they run back.

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