HORSES TO WATCH, FINAL BIAS AND OTHER by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

THERE WAS NO BIAS ON GRASS OR DIRT TODAY

HORSE TO WATCH:

(Race 3) BELEND.
(Race 7) DIAMOND TYCOON
(Race 9) GIANT OAK and FLYING PEGASUS
(Race 11) HULL and TRIP IN TIME


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RACE ELEVEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

5-2 well bet 1st timer HULL showed excellent speed from the start. Fought off pace pressure turning for home and drew of with complete authority. Good debut for TRIP IN TIME who showed speed from the start to chase in third. Tried hard to go after the winner turning for home while widest. No match but held well for a clear 2nd. 6-5 favorite HILLSWICK was off slow. Moved up on the turn along rail. Swung out top of the stretch, but could only finish up evenly. Disappointing effort.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

MY HORSES TO WATCH LIST AND FINAL TRACK BIAS REPORT AFTER RACE OBSERVATIONS

*** RACE ELEVEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

NOTE: RIDER EDGAR PRADO REPLACES BRIAN HERNANDEZ ABOARD (# 7) OUTA SPEIGHT.

NOTE: 1ST TIMER HULL OPENED UP AT 6-5 AS A FURST TIME STARTER. WAS A SOLID SECOND CHOICE IN ALL EXOTICS WAGERS SUCH AS THE PICK 3'S AND DOUBLES.

(# 2) HILLSWICK Third place finish on Jan 15 was "better than it looks". Broke slow then rushed up into fast pace. Lost only 1 length in a blazing quick 2nd quarter then continued on well to the wire, actually making up 1 1/2 lengths in the final eighth of a mile. Top 2 finishers both appear to have bright futures. Melnyk homebred comes from a strong dam line. His mother Up An Eighth was a winner of $460,000 and multiple stakes. Ended her career 7 for 12, all in sprints. Unless any of the 1sters in here have plenty of ability, he breaks his maiden today. (# 7) OUTTA SPEIGHT Appears the 1st timer who looks to have quality and a chance to upend the favorite if that one regresses off his impressive debut. Purchased for $350,000 as a yearling by Steve Asmussen. From the excellent speed sire Speightstown out of a mare who won nearly a million dollars. She also won her debut in 2002. 12 of her 17 wins came sprinting. Tremendous 5f breeze Jan 25 at Evangeline which was the fastest of 41 at the distance. (# 5) HULL Another interesting 1st timer who appears to be well meant today. Purchased for $82,000 as a 2 year old. Sired by Holy Bull out of a mare who was a 6 time winner. Solid works, especially his 5f breezing gate work Jan 7 and 4f drill Jan 21, both the fastest at the distance over this course. (# 9) RONDEVOUS Returns off a 7 month layoff making 1st start for Asmussen off a trainer change from Todd Pletcher. Good 3rd in debut in tough maiden field as the 7-5 second choice. The winner Atomic Rain came back to run a solid 2nd in the Grade 1 Remson. 2nd finisher returned to break his maiden in his next start by 8 lengths. Difficult to say how he will return off the bench showing only 3 slow works. (# 3) ETHICS REFORM Returns off a 7 month layoff making 1st start for Asmussen off a trainer change from Todd Pletcher. Good 3rd in debut in tough maiden field as the 7-5 second choice. The winner Atomic Rain came back to run a solid 2nd in the Grade 1 Remson. 2nd finisher returned to break his maiden in his next start by 8 lengths. Difficult to say how he will return off the bench showing only 3 slow works.

RACE TEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

40-1 upset by MIRACLEINTHEMAKING who was much best. Taken just off a very fast pace to stalk in 2nd. Moved midway on turn to challenge for the lead. Took over top of the stretch and held off closers in a very gritty effort. TIFFANY MARIE closed up the inside under weak handling. Perfect trip and set up. 1-1 favroite GAIL GOLDEN chased the fast pace along the rail in 3rd. Swung out top of the stretch to go after the leader. Lugged in late then straightened. No punch in the Last 70 yards. Entry mate RACHEL was fractious loading. Stumbled leaving gate and last. Passed tired horses widest late.

*** RACE TEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

(1-1A) GAIL GOLDEN Both she and her uncoupled entry mate Rachelsfinesthour, who she defeated 9 days ago, are back today. Both step up from a restricted claimer into allowance company. At 1st glance it appears they are stepping up sharp in class. On closer inspection they are not. This is a weak field at this level. Like her mate, Gail Golden makes her 2nd start off the Klesaris claim. Barn has been going very well of late. Can stalk in perfect striking position from the start. Finished in a very fast :12 4/5, which would be enough to repeat today. RACHEL Ran 2nd to Gail Golden 9 days ago off the Klesaris claim. Would have to improve off that effort to turn the tables on her mate today, but can do it with new rider Castanon aboard. Likes to lay in mid-pack or even further back and make 1 closing run. Would benefit from lively fractions. (# 9) LITTLE SPRINGER Except for a 9th place finish Dec 26, both starts off the Scherer claim have been good enough to win this race. Her poor effort was due to a very wide trip chasing a quick pace from the start. Both wins at today's 6f distance. P Val back aboard. (# 3) IDE BETTER RUN Has reeled off several good efforts in a row, twice recently at this level. Has good tactical speed. 1 of only 2 horses in this race who gets weight from the rest of the field. Main obstacle she must overcome is her inside post and the fact that she is winless in 7 starts at this 6f distance. (# 6) MISS DIXIE DOODLE Nearly upset a similar field on Jan 15 dropping a nose decision at 76-1. Received a perfect ride by 5 Lb Bonnet. If she can duplicate that vastly improved form and trip, she can win this.

RACE NINE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

5-2 favorite FRIESAN FIRE was rank early between horses. Settled down into the far turn. Asked for his run at the top of the stretch and responded to take lead inside at the 1/8th pole and drew clear. Very good trip for a talented 3 year old. Solid return for FLYING PEGASUS who was taken back to rate outside in fifth. Nice middle move to reach striking position at the top of the stretch. Stayed on very well to take up chase of the winner, but had to settle for a clear 2nd. INDYGO MOUNTAIN came off the rail early. Mild move very wide approaching stretch. Completely empty through the lane. Impossible trip for GIANT MOUNTAIN who was taken back early well off the pace. Moved up between horses on the backstretch while in tight between horses. Steadied back in traffic entering the turn. Blocked behind horses top of the stretch while full of run. Moved outside, then finished sneaky well widest then galloped out well past the wire.

*** RACE NINE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

( #7) GIANT OAK Has been clearly pointed for the Risen Star in his return from a 9 week layoff. Solid conditioner Chris Block has done a marvelous job developing this talented colt. Giant Oak is clearly the best bred horse in the field to relish a distance of ground. The further he goes, the tougher he will be. His long winded pedigree, running style and strong finish all point this out. Sire by top stallion Giant's Causeway, whose offspring can run all day, both on dirt and grass. Giant Oak's mother Crafty Oak ran 5 times in routes and won 4 of them and nearly a half a million in earnings. Giant Oak began his career winning easily at a mile on grass. He repeated that victory with a decisive score in an off the grass race. In the Grade 3 Bourbon back on grass at Keeneland, he lacked room in the stretch losing all chance. Giant Oak made his last start in a Gr 2 stake at Churchill on dirt. He lost by a diminishing neck. Third place finisher Capt. Candyman Can came back to win the Gr 2 Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park Jan 30. Giant Oak shows 5 excellent workouts for the Risen Star. Block calls on Edgar Prado to fly in for the mount. Prado elects to do so because he knows this could be a serious Kentucky Derby candidate. No doubt that the Oak is a very dangerous rival to the expected favorite Friesan Fire. (# 2) INDYGO MOUNTAIN His 6th place finish, 12 lengths behind Friesan Fire, in the Gr 3 LeComte may appear an impossible obstacle to turn the tables on that talented rival in the Risen Star, but I am expecting a vastly improved effort. Indygo was not expected to run that well in the Lecomte because he had been fighting foot problems as trainer Calhoun openly said several times in the press. All he wanted to do is give him a race over the track in preparation for the Risen Star. If Indygo was not 100 %, you can be sure Calhoun would not be running Saturday. In addition he hit the gate at the start and then raced wide throughout from a tough outside post going a mile. He could not have been any more impressive breaking his maiden at Churchill. Indygo Mountain breaks from an inside post in the Risen Star. With a lack of early speed in this stake, expect rider Theriot to put him into the game early. Whether he is good enough to win this will quickly be answered, but my feeling is that he will run very well. (# 6) FRIESAN FIRE There is no doubt that this very talented colt can win the Risen Star, but I feel he will be overbet and a vulnerable favorite. Superb trainer Larry Jones has always believed this was his Derby horse. Friesan Fire had been a bit of a "head case" and a difficult horse to ride as he could not relax during his races which expended too much energy for a strong stretch run. For the 1st time this was not the case in the LeComte. New rider Saez was able to take him off the pace, tracking in 3rd place. Under a relaxed hold, Friesan Fire moved smoothly to the lead turning for home and was able to edge clear to a convincing score. In the Risen Star he must once again show he can rate and finish because this is a tougher race. I am certain that 1 1/16 miles is well within his scope, but I always felt that he could be vulnerable as the distances increase. There is no question trainer Larry Jones is one of the best around developing young horses. He can get into a horses head and straighten out any problems that may be preventing him or her to underachieve. He has proven this with Friesan Fire. (# 12) FLYING PEGASUS With a lack of early speed in the Risen Star, this colt could be on the lead early on despite breaking from an outside post. The Pegasus returns off nearly a 5 month layoff. In 3 starts, he has 2 wins and a 2nd in the Gr 2 Futurity at Belmont. He has shown the ability to run well on the front end as well as stalking the pace. Trainer Nicks is very good getting horses to perform well off the bench. Reunited with top rider Albarado who was aboard in his maiden win. Flying Pegasus has only 4 works for this, but his 5f breeze on Jan 26 was very good. The Risen Star could just be a stepping stone for his next start in the Louisiana Derby, but if he shakes loose on the lead and can slow down the pace, he could prove a stubborn leader to overhaul. (# 5) IT HAPPENED AGAIN strong win in Delta Stake beating much weaker. Still must respect an improving 3 year old from top trainer Larry Jones. (# 8) DUMAR Is an improving colt for the always dangerous Asmussen barn. Interesting to note that regular rider Bridgmohan elects to ride him instead of the barns other 2 runners. AU MOON showed improved speed in last. Strong win 2 back. Certainly appears to have a bright future, but his outside post today is a detriment even though it would not shock me if he runs well at a big price.

RACE EIGHT OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

Steve Asmussen runs 1-2. 9-2 winner WAR ECHO rated beautifully in mid pack along the rail. Swung out at the top of the stretch while under a strong hold and full of run. Moved after uncoupled mate FOUR GIFTS, then ran that one down in the final 1/16th. Four Gifts looked a winner in mid stretch, but had no answer for War Echo late. BOTH WERE TONS BEST OF THE REST. Even money favorite JUST JENDA sat in mid pack widest. Asked for run turning for home, but you could see quickly she had nothing. 9 lengths back of the winner in a very disappointing effort.

*** RACE EIGHT ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

( #7) JUST JENDA There is no better trainer in the land than Larry Jones at developing young horses. Case in point is Just Jenda who attempts to repeat her decisive win Jan 10 in the $75,000 Tiffany Lass in her 1st start over the Fair Grounds dirt course. Adding Lasix for the 1st time, Just Jenda was able to cover a wide trip to win in quick time. She was rated kindly by regular rider Terry Thompson. When called upon to launch her rally, Just Jenda moved to the lead effortlessly. This was her 3rd win in 4 starts. In her lone defeat, Just Jenda simply did not handle the tricky Delta Downs surface and its tight turns in a Grade 3 stake. Four Gifts easily defeated Just Jenda that day, but the tables were easily turned in the Tiffany Lass. What is important to note is that the 2nd place finisher Selva was the heavy favorite that day as a result of a perfect 3 for 3 win record with a maiden win 1st asking at Saratoga and then victories in the the $100,000 Sorority at Monmouth and a $150,000 stake at Woodbine. Just Jenda must overcome post 7 Saturday, but with her good tactical speed and an excellent rider aboard, I feel she can get the job done. Nice 5f breezing work 5 days ago says she's ready to go. (3) WAR ECHO Steadily improving filly returns off 9 week layoff for Asmussen. Needs to move foward once again Saturday, but based on several of her recent works, it appears she is up to the task. Will be on or near the lead from the start. Interesting to note that Bridgmohan who rode both in their last outings, has elected to stay aboard her instead of opting to ride Four Gifts who has accomplished more at this point in their careers. I feel War Echo has more upside than her uncoupled mate. (# 1) FOUR GIFTS Easily defeated by Just Jenda in the Tiffany Lass as the 6-5 favorite. Nothing of note to think she can turn the tables on that rival today, but prior to that defeat, she had run races good enough to give her another chance. Gets a rider change to Albarado as regular rider Bridgmohan elects to stay aboard War Echo. Draws the rail which can only help her chances. (# 4) FLYING SPUR Impressive maiden win in very fast time Jan 5 off a 2 month layoff. That win was over slop. Today she will have to prove she can duplicate that effort over a dry surface against more established runners.

RACE SEVEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

7-2 winner DIAMOND TYCOON was tons best closing boldly from well off the pace against a very slow pace. Relishes this grass course!. WINDWARD ISLANDS finishing willing for 2nd but no match for winner. CORRUPT stalked loose speed JIMMY SIMMS. Took over deep stretch, but unable to hold off the top 2 finishers late. Needed race off the layoff.

*** MID DAY BIAS UPDATE *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

Through 6 races, there is no bias on dirt or grass.

*** RACE SEVEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

(# 7) DEMARCATION If he runs back to his Nov 22 win in the Gr 3 River City at Churchill in which he dead heated a quality horse, he will be very hard to hold off in deep stretch. Overcame an outside post to score at today's 1 1/8 mile distance. Overcame a very wide trip from a tough outside post. Loves to win as evidenced by 6 career victories in 19 career starts. Trainer Paul McGee has won with a lofty 31 % of starters this meet. His off the pace running style is very conducive to the customery closers bias over the Fair Grounds grass course. Pointed for this off a freshening showing a series of solid workouts. (# 2) JIMMY SIMMS Speed is always dangerous especially when that horse is in against a field of off the pace runners which this field is made up of. No doubt he will have to run a career best here, but if Jimmy Simms can set a slow pace, he could steal this Gr 3 stake on the front end. All 3 wins on the grass. Has won on the lead, stalking or closing from off the pace. He has also shown he can handle a heated battle. Shows a series of strong works for his return from a 6 week layoff. 1 for 1 over this grass course. Gets the rail which can only help. Hall Of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen and his main go to rider Bridgmohan are a big plus in Jimmy Simms corner. (# 5) DIAMOND TYCOON Would have to run a career best race to win this but what I like about him is that he has steadily improved since shipping into the US and given Lasix. The Tycoon is 2 for 2 over this course and the added distance can only help. Likes to rally from off the pace, so he needs a well timed ride from new rider Leparoux, whose strength is with this style of running. (# 4) CORRUPT Returns off nearly a 7 month layoff. Has shown in the past that he can run well off the bench. Versatile 5 year old can stalk the pace or close from behind. Has a win and a 2nd in 3 grass starts at Fair Grounds. Main concern today is that he faces some sharp horses with current form and even though he has run well fresh, that was for other trainers. He runs now for Neil Howard who likes to "give them one" before go day. Reunited with Albarado today. (# 1) FRENCH BERET is a danger in here based on his current form. Main obstacle is that he must overcome an expected slow pace.

RACE SIX OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

2-1 favorite HONEST MAN sat chilly stalking widest and the slow pace set by MY PAL CHARLIE. Cruised up to challenge that rival at the top of the stretch. Disposed of him easily and drew clear with complete authority in a fine effort. GOOD AND LUCKY closed late to be a clear 2nd though no threat to the winner. BROTHERS NICHOLAS passed a tired MY PAL CHARLIE who set a slow pace under a good hold. Offered little resistance to the winner and then had no fight late in a weak effort. GRASSHOPPER up close stalking the leader into the turn. Offered no fight approaching the stretch and then faded in an awful return. Not the same horse as in the past.

ADDED HORSE TO RACE 5 ANALYSIS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

(# 5) MY PAL CHARLIE was bet very heavy in the pick 3's. I looked long and hard at him, but even though he ran very well to be beaten by Albertus Maximus who went on to win the Donn at Gulfstream, he has only beaten 3 year olds. My Pal Charlie meets older for only the 2nd time off a layoff. 2 of his 3 wins over this course. Shows a series of good steady works. Has fine tactical speed. Certainly must not be overlooked but his price (2-1 with 11 minutes to go) is a bit too short for me

*** RACE SIX OBSERVATIONS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

(# 8 ) HONEST MAN Quality speed is always dangerous, especially if able to shake loose early in a field where the opposition do their best running from off the pace. Honest Man fits this profile like a glove. He had the same set up on Jan 10 and was swallowed up inside the 1/8th pole by Good And Lucky and Secret Getaway, both rivals he will again meet today. It would seem easy to question why Honest Man should reverse that decision. First and foremost, trainer Larry Jones did not have him 100 % fit for that race in his return from a 3 1/2 month layoff. He set a fast pace that day and even when he was passed, Honest Man did not fold. Instead he fought hard right to the wire, losing less than 1 length in the final 1/8th of a mile. With that race under his belt, almost a month off and an excellent 5f breeze Feb 2, expect him to be sitting on a wire to wire performance. He is reunited with Larry Jones' main go to rider Saez who has been aboard in 5 of his 6 career wins. (# 2) GOOD AND LUCKY Had a perfect stalking trip when he defeated both Secret Getaway and Honest Man when that one began to tire then held off Getaway by a length. He loves this course and distance as evidenced by 4 of 6 wins at Fair Grounds and 7 out of 12 at the 1 1/16 mile distance. Good And Lucky's tactical speed makes him another win threat again today. Draws a much better post than what he encountered in his last 4 outings. (# 1) SECRET GETAWAY Defeated Honest Man by 1 1/4 lengths Jan 10, but had the advantage of 3 prior solid efforts, each one a month apart. Defeated by Good And Lucky that day, but that one got the jump on him and clearly had the better journey. With a lack of pace in here, Secret Getaway could face another tough task, but the rail can only help. He has shown that he clearly prefers dirt and likes this track. (# 4) GRASSHOPPER No doubt he will be overbet off his past reputation. If he is at his best, he is certainly a danger to win. The main problem is that he is coming off more than a 5 month layoff. Even though he shows a series of decent works, horses from the Neil Howard barn were in quarentine because of a virus that spread through his barn. I'm not sure if this had much of an affect on the Grasshopper, but it certainly did not help his cause. Howard usually does not have his horses cranked up off the bench. He has been a beaten favorite in 5 of his last 6 starts when going off the chalk. I feel he has never been the same horse since being defeated by Street Sense by a half length in the 2007 Travers following a gut wrenching stretch battle. (# 7) BROTHER NICHOLAS Returns off a layoff making 1st start for trainer Roussel. Can land a piece in here, but main negative is that this barn is winless in 14 starts this meet.

RACE FIVE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

3-2 favorite CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE cleared early. Challenged by ROUSE THE CAT on the turn. Spurted clear from that rival in mid stretch then drew off as much the best. GRAND TRAVERSE split horses late to run down The Cat nearing the wire. Cat forced the pace along the inside into the turn. Took short lived lead top of the stretch, then easily displaced racing on his wrong lead thru the lane. I did not like his stride. STORM TREAURE showed no speed. Far back into the stretch, then rallied mildly to dead heat for 3rd.

*** RACE FIVE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

(# 3) ROUSE THE CAT Back on grass following a series of solid efforts out of town. Has shown on several occasions that he can defeat a field of this caliber. Case in point is his nose defeat to True Tradition in the Gr 2 Nearctic Oct 4 at Woodbine. Tradition would be odds on here. Likes to race up close and attack turning for home. Trainer Figgins is a "sneaky" good trainer who is switching to his main go to rider Almodovar shipping in from his home base at Charles Town race course in West Virginia. It certainly does not appear that he is shipping into the bayou for a cup of Louisiana gumbo. (# 1) STORM TREASURE No reason to believe that he can repeat his victory over Chamberlain Bridge again despite a big switch in weights in favor of the Bridge today. Overcame a slow pace to easily blow by him in the Bonapaw Stakes Dec 20. Pace should be quicker in today's stake which can only help this 6 year old. Both have not raced since then and show a series of similar breezing works. 2 of 3 grass wins at Fair Grounds. Clearly loves the long stretch and a course that usually favors closers. (# 5) CHAMBERLIN BRIDGE Gets an 8 Lb switch in weights in his favor which can only help. Had no excuse whatsover Dec 20 when rider was able to clear early and set a slow pace for this level. With his consistent record and a fondness for this course and distance, there is no doubt he can turn the table on Storm Treasure, but he must improve on that 2nd place finish. (# 2) GRAND TRAVERSE Could be a factor in here if able to run back to his good 3rd two starts back. (# 6) ACTING ZIPPY Comes off a sharp win at today’s distance, but does face quite a bit tougher in here. (# 7) JOHN’S ROAD Must run his career best today to be a factor, but one plus in his favor is that he is trained by the red hot Cody Autrey.

RACE FOUR OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

2-1 PRECIOUS KISS rated comfortably in last. Swung widest in the stretch. Steady run thru the lane to easily blow by CLASSIFY At the 1/16th pole. CLASSIFY missed the break and was last. Steady move up along rail into good striking position. Eased outside the pacesetter PSU GRAD, put that one away, but no match for winner. PSU GRAD had no excuse rating nicely on a loose lead. Offered no resistance at the 1/16th pole.

*** RACE FOUR ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

(# 2) CLASSIFY Has more wins than any in this field. Unique record that she has won 8 races from 19 starts, but has never run 2nd. Goes grass to dirt which is a strong angle for this barn. Likes to rate in mid-pack then pounce. (# 6) PRECIOUS KISS Beaten 5 lengths by Gypsy last out when checking in 3rd. May have been closer if not for a very wide trip from a tough outside post going 5 1/2f. Today's added distance, and much smaller field, should help her. 5 works since her last start. Tremendous works on Feb 1 and Jan 25, 3rd best of 96 and again 3rd best of 37 respectively. (# 5) P.S.U. GRAD must be considered because she does have tactical speed. She 1 for 1 at the FG and like CLASSIFY, she is also trained by the always dangerous Steve Asmussen.

RACE THREE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

3-2 favorite CUSH to back to stalk the pace. Blew by the leaders in mid stretch as tons the best. BELEND chased pacesetter DOUBLE HELIX from the start. Put that one away top of the stretch, but had no answer for the winner. TIME IS CRUCIAL was a no threat 3rd passing a tiring Helix late. BARUFF rated towards the back of the pack. Made a mild wide move on turn, but flattened up very bad in the stretch in a very disappointing effort.

*** RACE THREE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

( #8) BARUFF Makes his 3rd start off a layoff following 2 vastly improved efforts. Prior to his layoff, Baruff had won 3 races in 6 starts, all at Evangeline Down, which is a third tier track. Rightfully so, you have to downgrade these victories when shipped to a major league venue like Fair Grounds. But once in awhile, you must not overlook a race that was better than it looks. This came Aug 14. Right from the start, Baruff went to the front and was hook immediately, dueling through very fast fractions and was still able to prevail in quick time. He was placed on the shelf following that hard fought effort, resurfacing Dec 29 at Fair Grounds in a State bred claimer. Sent off at 5-2, Baruff stalked a lively pace in 3rd then moved up to 2nd entering the turn. He was never able to run down a very sharp rival, falling 3/4 of a length short. Top Cajun trainer Frank Leggio knew he was sitting on a sharp and much improved horse, so he elected to boost Baruff way up in class to a high priced allowance race. He ran 6th that day, but his race was "much better than it looks on paper". Breaking from the rail, Baruff moved up quickly to force the pace of 2 other speedsters. He steadied while in tight midway on the turn and was forced to drop back a bit. He was swung outside for the stretch run, then finished evenly, but galloped out strong past the wire suggesting there was plenty left in the tank for this race. What is important to note is that the field included winner Mr. Barracuda, winner of 12 starts, as well as several other hard knocking older gladiators. This is a "hidden" drop in class today. Baruff must overcome an outside post, but if able to drop in a bit so as to not be hung out very wide through the turn, I expect a solid performance by a horse who should be a bit of a price. (# 4) DOUBLE HELIX Difficult to determine how sharp he will be in his return off more than a 4 month layoff. In 6 career starts, he has won 3 times, and placed twice. The only time Double Helix was off the board, was in a stake going 7 furlongs taking a big boost in class off his maiden score. There is no doubt he has quality based on his 2 length win last out, defeating Star Guitar who exited that race to reel off 3 straight wins, his last 2 in stakes company. Helix can set the pace or stalk. Jockey Clark is 2 for 2 aboard him. Trainer Sam Breaux is very strong getting horses ready to fire a big shot off the bench. (# 7) CUSH Sharp win Jan 8 off a 7 month layoff. Versatile 4 year old can stalk or sit mid-pack and rally. A horse for the course, with all 3 wins here and each one at today's 6 furlong distance. Gets very underrated rider Jacinto back aboard. (# 5) BELEND Switches from grass back to dirt in his 2nd start off the Ducoing claim, which is a strong angle for this barn. Has been a gem of consistency throughout his 23 race career. One cause for concern is that he has been blanked in 6 starts here. Can stalk or take back. Gets a rider change to top pilot Albarado which indicates "all systems go" today. (# 1a) TIME IS CRUCIAL Drops in class which helps, but has several gaps in his record suggesting that he has had his share of physical problems. Has a win at the distance.

RACE TWO OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

5-1 DOWN THE ROAD broke right on top setting a lively pace from the start. Faced stiff pressure to his outside on turn. Fought of his pursuers at the top of the stretch and drew off as much the best. AUGUSTUS MACRAY chased from the start. No match for the winner but held on gamely for 2nd. SWING N JONES chased widest in 3rd. Loomed at the top of the stretch, but could make no impact on the winner thru the lane under a stiff drive. COACH CARROLL rated in mid pack. Had a mild rally thru the stretch to just get nipped out for 2nd. 3-2 favorite showed how gutless he is, showing no punch at all in the stretch even though he raced wide. Time for a drop into maiden claimers.

EQUIPMENT CHANGE (Race 2) by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

(# 7) AUGUSTUS MACRAY adds fronts on for the 1st time. (9-1 with 6 minutes to go).

*** RACE TWO ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

(# 9) SWING N JONES Catches the right type of field to be a danger as a 1st timer. Debuts for top trainer Calhoun who is having a fine meet and has shown he can score right out of the box. His half brother Two Speed won 1st asking. His mother won 10 of 52 starts. earning well over $200,000. She is also a half sister to several quality runners, highlited by the classy Senor Swinger, winner of nearly 1 million, with most of those earnings in Graded stakes. (# 12) SEVEN MILE BRIDGE No secret he is the one to beat as the expected heavy favorite. Has run second in all 5 starts, losing at odds on 3 times, 8-5 once and 9-2 in his debut. I always pick against these types of money burners, even though he can win as the overbet chalk once again. Has very good tactical speed, but in 4 of those 5 outings, he has lost ground in the stretch. (# 6) COACH CARROLL Another 1st timer who has the breeding and trainer credentials to win this. Purchased for $145,000 as a Louisiana bred which is a nice sum of money for horses bred in Cajun country. His mother is a half to several quality runners who ran well early in their careers. Strong 4f workout Jan 15 indicates that he is ready for his unveiling. (# 7) AUGUSTUS MACRAY Ran 4th, beaten 5 1/4 lengths by Seven Mile Bridge in his debut. His race was better than it looks. Had to break from post 11 in a large field of 12. Raced wide throughout and still managed not to lose ground in the stretch. Also raced "greenly" in the stretch. Improvement expected. (# 2) DOWN THE ROAD is back on dirt. Decent 4th in debut on dirt but that was over a wet track. Inside post does not help. (# 4) SOUTH LINE strong finish to run 2nd in beaten only a head. That was against weaker. Does get a huge rider change today.

RACE ONE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

4-5 winner ACACIA sustained a good wide rally to win going away. Set up by a lively contested pace. SYRIANNA’S SONG just nipped out VICTORY ROMANCE for 2nd who set a pressured brisk pace throughout. The rest of the field showed nothing.

EQUIPMENT CHANGE (Race One) by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

(# 4) SHOPPIN SHIRLEY: 11-1 with 5 minutes to go, gets front bandages back on.

*** RACE ONE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

(# 3) ACACIA Freshened after a career best effort Dec 19 back at Fair Grounds. Made up ground at every call racing wide throughout from a tough outside post going a mile. Draws a much better slot today. Shows 6 workouts since that fine effort. Lone win over this course. Top trainer Asmussen saddles. (# 2) VIOLETINHA Stretches out to 2 turns and goes grass to dirt. Good efforts prior 2 sprint starts off a layoff shipping in from Argentina and a trainer change to Stidham for new owners. Showed good early speed in both. Should be on or near the lead from the advantageous rail post. Ran well in stakes as a 3 year old in her native country. Reunited with jockey Graham. (# 5) VICTORY ROMANCE Should carry her speed much further off the freshening with top speed rider Valenzuela back aboard. Last 2 quick works also point this out. Could clear early if Violetinha elects to stalk, which is very possible. (# 1A) SYRIANA’S SONG is questionable going 2 turns. Has shown she likes to run 2nd.

TRACK CONDITIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

Main Track is FAST, Grass course is FIRM. 11 races on Saturday's program.

INTRODUCTION by The Wizard on Saturday, February 07, 2009

WELCOME TO “LIVEWITHTHEWIZARD” AT THE FAIR GROUNDS

My format for Saturday’s card at the Fair Grounds will be the following: I will provide you with detailed analysis on horses I feel are contenders for all ten races. This analysis will be posted no later than ten minutes to post. Once the horses are in the paddock, and enter the track for the post parade, I will post any observations that I feel are important. I will always keep you informed if I notice any betting patterns. Following the race, after I watch the pan shot as well as the head on, I will point out important trips and horses to watch when they run back, only if I have a strong opinion. I will keep you abreast of any prevailing track bias throughout the day. Following the day’s program, I will list those horses, which might be good betting opportunities the next time they run back.

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