FINAL REPORT by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

THERE WAS NO BIAS TODAY. THE RAIL WAS A BIT DEEP AND TIRING, BUT MOST OF THE TIME, THE RIDERS AVOIDED IT.

HORSES TO WATCH:

(Race 3) GIANT SHAMROCK
(Race 8) CAPTAIN CHEROKEE and MONTECORE
(Race 9) ROLLING SEA

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RACE TEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

7-2 ANGEL OF MINE rated outside in mid pack. Sustained nice closing rally to blow away the field from mid stretch to the wire. LUCKY MARIA showed improved speed on the stretch out. Forced the pace early. Put away the speed and stalkers turing for home but had no answer for the winner. MY HOME GAL came in sharply impeding 2 horses. Was disqualified from 3rd. Both AFTER NOON GIRL and MS MERCIER, both well bet showed nothing.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOLLOWING RACE TEN by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

FOLLOWING MY OBSERVATIONS OF RACE TEN, I WILL PROVIDE YOU A FINAL TRACK BIAS, HORSES TO WATCH AND OTHER INFO.

*** RACE TEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

(# 2 ) AFTER NOON GIRL Afternoon Deelites filly faced some fast fillies in her two sprints. She was well bet each time. Both of those races were several lengths faster than par. Sire is a middle distance influence and her half-brother Broadway Style was a confirmed router. Those two sprints have her set to stretch out for Asmussen. She also takes a substantial class drop into a soft spot. This filly combines several winning maneuvers for the Asmussen outfit. Has shown enough speed to rate just off the projected strong pace. Has stable rider Shaun Bridgmohan up. (# 1) MS MERCIER Made a small middle move into a fast pace and held on well to finish 4th at 74-1. Her grandsires Danzig and Bailjumper should give her the stamina to handle the route. She split decisions with After Noon Girl in her two starts. With her speed she figures to be on or near the lead. (# 4) ANGEL OF MINE Improving with racing and well placed once again by Hahn. She finished well for 3rd last time, a decent effort even though she was taking advantage of the fast early pace. Her even-paced style gives her a chance in a very shallow field. Will retain James Graham.

RACE NINE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

2-1 winner SMART SURPRISE stalked cheap speed on the rail into the turn. Eased outside entering the stretch, then steadily drew clear to win easily over the favorite ROLLING SEA who raced in perfect position throughout. Dead aim on the winner to the 1/8th pole, then could make up no ground. Did not handle the wet track like she does on a dry surface. Rest of field had no impact.

*** RACE NINE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

(# 3) ROLLING SEA 5yo mare narrowly edged Unforgotten in a Delta Downs stakes two starts back then blasted a good field that included Bear Now in the Truly Bound. Rolling Sea loves this course and is as sharp as she has ever been. She has won 4 of her 5 starts here. With 12 wins in 32 starts and $700K+ in the bank the 6yo mare knows where the winner's circle is located. NOTE: SHE IS THE CLASS OF THIS FIELD, BUT AS A 6 YEAR OLD, SHE HAS NEVER RUN ON A WET TRACK. (# 5) UNFORGOTTEN Gave Rolling Sea all she wanted in the Treasure Chest on the Delta Downs bull ring. She shipped west for the Sunshine Millions last time. She was rated far off the pace and, even with a final 5/16 in :29 4/5, she could do no better than 3rd. Three starts back she missed by a half length to the talented Leah's Secret in a Churchill G2 stakes.(# 6) SHE’S INDY MONEY Has two sprints under her belt since returning from more than a year on the sidelines. She closed from far back to finish mid-pack when hammered at the windows last time. Lightly raced mare has won 6 of her 15 starts including a G3 stakes at Woodbine. Malcolm Pierce has her sitting on a big race. (# 1) SMART SURPRISE Is a consistent mare but all 3 of her wins have been on synthetic surface. Likes a wet track, has tactical speed and the rail and gets a rider change to Albarado.

RACE EIGHT OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

7-5 winner CAPTAIN CHEROKEE won like a 7-5 should. Raced in mid pack racing wide. Asked for run at the top of the stretch and easily drew clear inside the 1/8th pole. Could have a bright future. NORTHERN PRINCE closed late along the rail to narrowly edge clear from the pacesetter MONTECORE who ran well stretching out to 2 turns. Pressured from the start. Lugged in a bit in the stretch, but still managed to fight on hard to the wire, just failing to hold the place. DOC’S FRIEND and BREAKING NEWS finished well too late on the far outside.

RACE EIGHT BETTING ACTION by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

With 14 minutes to go, (# 7) CAPTAIN CHEROKEE is 3-5 odds. Even though I feel he is clearly the one to beat, he is too short a price at this point.

*** RACE EIGHT ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

(# 7) CAPTAIN CHEROKEE This son of Sir Cherokee brought $650K as a 2yo and is a half to sprint champion Midnight Lute. With a sprint prep under his belt be won very impressively at a flat mile. He stalked the pacesetter then slipped through a big hole to take the lead in mid-stretch and drew off. Earned a big figure and could be any kind. NOTE: THE HORSE HE BEAT, FIERCE THUNDER IN RACE FIVE, CAME BACK TO WIN EASILY WHICH FLATTERS THIS COLT. (# 2) MONTECORE With a race under his belt the $400,000 son of Hold That Tiger beat maidens by 8 widening lengths. The final time was fast but he was allowed to set a relatively soft pace. He will be severely tested on the front end this time. With Gulch as his grandsire he is bred to be at his best around two turns. (# 9) NORTHERN PRINCE Comes off a solid sprint in which he fought it out all the way with the promising Nuclear Wayne. He yielded to 'Wayne by less than two lengths and was well clear of the others. Has also shown the ability to rate. Bred for the route and his versatile style is a plus. Must avoid a wide trip from the outside post. (# 8) BECKY’S EXPRESS Did not seem to care for the polytrack in his first starts but he scored booming wins in both tries on dirt. He was claimed by Amoss out of a strong score over $25,000 claimers. That race was blazing fast at every call. This class jump is not as great as it appeared. Has a shot if Hernandez can avoid getting caught up in a speed duel. (# 3) DOC’S FRIEND Must improve to compete here but is bred very well for a wet track, draws an inside post with tactical speed and has top trainer Larry Jones as his mentor.

RACE SEVEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

3-2 favorite PACIFIC TSUNAMI was off slow and was forced to chase along the deeper rail which was unexpected as I thought he would be in the lead. Swung out top of the stretch and wore down a very stubborn CHAPEL BY THE SEA who ran big stalking a lively pace from the start. Both horses trained by the hot Bret Calhoun. CUVEE STAR was far back entering the stretch. Passed tired horses late for 3rd but was no match for the top 2.

BETTING ACTION RACE SEVEN by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

(# 1) PACIFIC TSUNAMI opened up at a very short 3-5 odds. Another selection I like but he must drift up in price for me to consider any wager on him. He should as he is only a slight favorite over CUVEE STAR in the pick 3's.

*** RACE SEVEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

OFF THE GRASS. WILL NOW BE RUN AT THE SAME 5 ½ FURLONG DISTANCE.

(# 1) PACIFIC TSUNAMI Appears the inside speed cutting back in distance with good speed rider Jacinto back aboard. The key is if he can outrun (# 3) FIFTYCENTSONDOLLAR who also has excellent gate speed and cuts back to 5 ½ furlongs. If those 2 hook up and the pace is quick as expected, it could set it up nicely for (# 2) CUVEE STAR who has shown he can take back and make 1 strong closing rally. Takes a smart drop in class after facing far tougher in last 2 starts. Bug off. Bridgmohan on. (# 5) CHAPEL BY THE SEA comes out of the same race as Cuvee. Tired badly but he was coming off a layoff and was wide from the start. Excellent work Feb 8. NOTE: ALL 6 HORSES HAVE NEVER RUN OVER A WET TRACK.

RACE SIX OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

3-1 winner MY GOLD won his 2nd race after 19 starts clearing early. Was pressured to his outside by MR. EXPLOITER. Put that one away in mkid stretch and won easily. Exploiter was able to be a clear 2nd over BRANDON’S TROPHY who sat a perfect inside-out trip. Could make up no ground from mid stretch. Favored JUNE AFTERNOON making his 1st start at this level, showed nothing.

*** RACE SIX ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

(# 6) JUNE AFTERNOON Gets the class drop that he needs after being overmatched in all four starts against winners. Two starts back he was still in close contention in deep stretch against $25,000 claimers on the grass. 4yo has shown enough against those tough fields to have a good shot at the win at this level. (# 2) BRANDON’S TROPHY Has been stuck at this level for ages but has not missed the board in his last 9 starts. Claimed last out from Calhoun by Elliott Necaise who stretches him out to his best distance. Closed fast in his last two sprints despite trouble in each. Contender despite the negative trainer switch. (# 9) GLOBAL PICTURES Showed much improved speed when he rated in 2nd behind a runaway leader who was setting a hot pace. He reeled that one in and drew off to an easy win. 4yo had previously been a plodder that picked up the pieces in the lane. Although he beat a woefully soft field he is on the upswing and could be dangerous. (# 7) MR. EXPLOITER could carry his speed a long way if able to clear early. Same with (# 3) IRISH ELIXER who breaks inside of that one and could be sent early which would do Exploiter in.

*** MID DAY BIAS UPDATE *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

THE INSIDE APPEARS A LITTLE DEEP AND TIRING, BUT STALKERS AND SPEED ARE DOING WELL. RIDERS ARE STAYING AWAY FROM THE RAIL.

RACE FIVE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

Even money favorite FIERCE THUNDER was allowed to go to the lead and set a slow pace then had plenty left to easily beat these. Drifted up late from his 3-5 odds. CHARLIE TRUMPER stalked slow pace outside winner. Went after him to the top of the stretch, then could not keep pace but was very game to hold off MASKED MAN who had every chance to snatch the place. Rest of the field was no factor.

BETTING ACTION RACE FIVE by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

With 4 minutes to go, FIERCE THUNDER is way overbet at 3-5 odds. Obviously he can win this race, and he is my top selection, but at that price I am passing. He can with without my money.

*** RACE FIVE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

OFF THE GRASS AT 1 1/16 MILES

(# 7) FIERCE THUNDER was a solid 2nd in debut going a mile. The winner was his uncoupled entry mate. The final time was very quick for that level of maidens. Top trainer Asmussen very strong winning with 2nd time starters. (# 2) FOREST LORD Has improved last 2 starts with blinkers added. Raced wide both times. Gets a rider change to Theriot who is the best here with getting horses to show speed from the gate. Inside post can only help. (NOTE) THERIOT has won 2 races so far on the card). (# 8) CHARLIE TRUMPER is back on dirt after finishing evenly. Good fourth 2 starts back despite racing from a tough outside post. Adds blinkers which should help. Both (# 4) MASKED MAN and (# 5) SHAPE have no early speed but have very strong wet track breeding on both sides.

RACE FOUR OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

4-1 BONWELL took lead from the start inside of 2nd place finisher LITE FROM HEAVEN Looked beaten in mid stretch inside of that one then came again to earn a narrow victory. Favorite UNCLE JOSH had dead aim on the leaders turning for home but came up empty in a very poor effort. UNIQUE INCIDENT sat a perfect stalking trip along the inside. Dead aim on the leaders turning for home, but came up empty.

*** RACE FOUR ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

(# 3) UNIQUE INCIDENT Mark Casse adds blinkers this time, an equipment change that could be just what this gelding needs. Last out he was rallying on the outside before swerving toward the rail inside the final furlong. Has the advantage of being lightly raced and now makes the often key 3rd start back from a long layoff. Will retain Bridgmohan. (# 2) UNCLE JOSH Was no match for the runaway winner but finished well clear of the rest of the pack. In each of his last two tries he earned figures that would win a lot of races at this level. In his previous start he drove confidently to the lead a furlong out but came up empty with the money on the line. (# 5) BONWELL Was going well at the wire after losing contact with the field after 6 furlongs. That was his first start off the Carl Bowman claim and first since November. Gelding who normally races with the early leaders switches to top speed rider Jamie Theriot. Has a shot at the upset.

RACE THREE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

5-2 POLY SAUCE sat a perfect Inside out trip. Took narrow lead deep stretch then was all out to hold off hanger BUSTER GROOVE who rallied late on the stand side. GIANT SHAMROCK who was tons. This speedster checked hard leaving gate finding himself last. Quick move between horses entering turn then forced to check again. Nice wide move to have dead aim on the leaders at the top of the stretch but was unable to sustain rally in the final 50 yards.

EQUIPMENT CHANGE by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

1st time starter LUCKY ALEC is wearing front bandages for his debut.

*** RACE THREE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

(# 5)) LUCKY ALEC Afternoon Deelites colt is a half-brother to Fass Feat, a stakes winner of $267K who won his first four starts for these same connections. His other sibling, full sister Missy's Deelite, was also an early winner. Lucky Alec has not missed a beat in his training since early December. He was asked for speed in his Jan. 18 drill and responded by working in :47 4/5 from the gate. That was the best of 63 works that morning. Colt will debut on Lasix for Emile Schwandt who is one of the best in the region with 1st time starters. He has won with 4 of his last 9 1st timers in maiden special company. Lucky Alec's two main contenders both come off debuts in which they got very weary in the stretch. This nicely bred colt is the one to beat. Miguel Mena will take the call. (# 4) Obscurely bred 4yo colt brought just $700 as a yearling but showed that he can run. He was bet down to 2-1 from a line of 5-1 in his debut. He quickly opened a commanding lead while setting strong fractions. Although he entered the final furlong 2 1/2 lengths on top he could not hold on through a slow final eighth. Pat Mouton's runners typically improve the 2nd time out. Three works since raced, the most recent a best-of-63 half mile breeze from the gate last Sunday. (# 1) POLY SAUCE Sent off the favorite in his debut and looked home free when he opened a clear lead over a soft field. The only one chasing him had 28 losses on his record. Although trying his best to hang through a 14 second final furlong, #29 proved to be the charm for his rival. Poly Sauce should show more stamina this time. Has top speed rider Theriot and the rail.

RACE TWO OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

4-1 winner ORIENTED LADY stalked the paceup close to SPIN MOVE. Took narrow lead in mid stretch. Was forced to check when 6-5 favorite INSURE blew on by then held 2nd. Up the stewards review Insure was rightfully disqualified and placed 2nd.

*** RACE TWO ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

(# 5) INSURE Hit the board against tougher company in each of her last four starts. Kentucky-based trainer Greg Foley is having his usual solid meet. Foley wins 32% of the time with this kind of class drop. After several near misses it is clear that he wants this filly to get her 2nd win. Has the high % stalking style and retains Miguel Mena. Bred well for a wet track. (# 9) ORIENTATED LADY Although she was beaten at 3-5 she ran well enough to win 90% of the races at that level. She earned a big figure with that 2nd place finish going a flat mile. She is also effective as a late running sprinter. She has won at this distance and trainer Gary Scherer is deadly with the route to sprint move. Switches from Castanon to P Val. (# 8) SATIN SLIPPERS Canadian shipper failed to fire in her first start here, her 1st on dirt and also her 1st for Tom Amoss. Better is likely with a race over the track and Amoss drops her two levels in class. Amoss had been doing well here but has been in a slump recently. What a surprise to see him on the cold trainer's list with 19 straight losers. (# 1) SPIN MOVE 4yo filly plunges in class and tries natural dirt for just the 2nd time. She finished 4th against $30,000 claimers on a "good" track two starts back, but that was a suspect field for the level. She is definitely a contender for Mark Casse who wins at a 28% clip with multiple-level class droppers. Casse also has positive stats with the turf to dirt move.

RACE ONE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

Sharp win by 7-2 winner SOUTHERN STYLE who stalked 6-5 favorite HARGILL. Worked hard to edge clear from that rival at the 1/8th pole and drew clear as much the best. Hargill showed good speed but had no answer to the winner late. Was a clear 2nd over the closing JACOB’S RUN who rallied in the middle of the track. The rest were no factor.

*** RACE ONE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

NOTE: VERY COMPETITIVE RACE WITH SEVERAL HORSES SHOWING SOME FORM OVER WET TRACKS AT DIFFERENT LEVELS.

(# 6) HARGILL Beat non-winners twice on opening weekend then, although he was a beaten favorite in his last two, ran well enough to win each time. In his Nov. 21 2nd place finish he had a next-out winner 6 lengths behind him in 3rd. Last time he rated in last place behind a slow pace then moved into contention with a 5th furlong in :11.1. Although he has been off for 45 days with no works, note that he did not work in the 40 days before that last race. Lone race on a wet track was a good 2nd over the mud back in 2007. (# 1) JACOB’S RUN Formerly competitive in allowance company, he took a big class drop into a low-level conditioned claimer last out. He rallied in deep stretch to miss by a half-length to the heavy favorite. This class jump is a sign that Proctor is not ready to lose him. He has not won in ages though and Proctor is winless from 23 starters here. (# 5) MATTER OF RECORD Dropped in class in both starts following the claim by Tom Amoss on Nov. 30. The "for sale" sign was out and the 4yo was taken by Donald Hacker. He loomed a threat last time but was outfinished by Jacob's Run for the place. Don't see how he cam improve off the claim but he is still too sharp to ignore. Switches to a 2% rider. (# 2) HELIOPSIS Overmatched Jan 18 shipping in from Woodbine off a layoff. Faced tougher in prior starts. Maiden win over a “good” track at Oaklawn’s dirt surface in 2nd career outing. (# 4) SOUTHERN STYLE Moves up over a wet track. Did break maiden at this 6f distance. Cuts back after 4 straight races going 2 turns.

INTRODUCTION by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

WELCOME TO “LIVEWITHTHEWIZARD” AT THE FAIR GROUNDS

My format for Saturday’s card at the Fair Grounds will be the following: I will provide you with detailed analysis on horses I feel are contenders for all ten races. This analysis will be posted no later than ten minutes to post. Once the horses are in the paddock, and enter the track for the post parade, I will post any observations that I feel are important. I will always keep you informed if I notice any betting patterns. Following the race, after I watch the pan shot as well as the head on, I will point out important trips and horses to watch when they run back, only if I have a strong opinion. I will keep you abreast of any prevailing track bias throughout the day. Following the day’s program, I will list those horses, which might be good betting opportunities the next time they run back.

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*** UPDATED TRACK CONDITIONS (FEB 14) *** by The Wizard on Saturday, February 14, 2009

NOTE: Main Track is SLOPPY. There is no grass racing today. Races five and seven which were scheduled to be run on the turf, will be run on the main track at the same distances.