HORSES TO WATCH, FINAL TRACK BIAS AND OTHER INFO by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

THERE WAS NO BIAS ON THE MAIN TRACK OR THE GRASS COURSE.

HORSES TO WATCH:

(Race 8) MR. R.B.I.
(Race 9) GET RICH QUICK

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RACE TEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

3-5 favorite REPENT PARDNER skooted out to a big lead from the start. Continued to hold a nice advantage to the top of the stretch. Under pressure to keep his margin in deep stretch when 7-2 BEAUTIFUL came storming down the center of the track to run down the heavy chalk late. The rest of the field showed little.

FINAL BIAS REPORT, HORSES TO WATCH LIST AND OTHER INFORMATION TO FOLLOW RACE TEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

*** RACE TEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 1) REPENT PARDNER 4yo takes a surprising class drop following a sharp 3rd place finish in a highly rated $30,000 claimer. He was a stakes contender at Lone Star last spring. The "for sale" sign is prominently displayed, but the feeling is that he has enough left to win here. Carlos Gonzalez will ride. Caution is advised. (# 4) KRISS ME ONCE Got the elusive maiden win in his 23rd start then came back to finish a clear 2nd under these exact conditions. The late running 6yo is reliable for another good try and could get the win if Repent Pardner fails to repeat. (# 8) BONWELL Comes off a very nice maiden win in which he set a fast pace while being pressured all the way. Theriot, a fine speed rider, will have him on or near the lead from the outside post. Improving and well placed by Bowman. (# 6) BEAUTIFUL YOU Has improved last 2 starts dropping down to this level. Likes to take back and make one run. Gets pace to close into which can only help.

RACE NINE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

22-1 upset winner GOLD WONDER was able to lope on the lead setting a “snail” pace. Spurted away from pressure at the top of the stretch and was under a stiff drive to hold sway late. Solid race by GET RICH QUICK who closed boldly from off the pace into a very slow pace. At the top of his game right now. Even money favorite STORM TREASURE was strangled back to last against a very slow pace. Looked for room at the top of the stretch then could not muster any rally whatsoever in a poor ride and performance. GRASSHOPPER was Grasshopper, a horse who has not been able to regain his 4 year old form. This grass experiment failed miserably.

*** RACE NINE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 7) STORM TREASURE Won this race last year and was not badly beaten in a G3 stakes. Since then he has been reinvented as a turf sprinter. He finished a close 3rd in the BC Turf Sprint and was close in two graded stakes at Woodbine. He won the Bonapaw here last December and comes off a flying 3rd place finish in the Colonel Power. He is versatile to be sure, but he still seems best as a miler. The 6yo loves this course and Asmussen has him in peaking form. He may be a cut above his opposition. (# 9) MASTER MIZZEN Gray 5yo closed from the back of the pack to finish a close 3rd behind Get Rich Quick. He seemed to be hurt the most by the extremely slow pace. He is the strongest finisher in the field and should get a more honest pace to rally into. Has a shot at the upset despite the tough outside post (# 3) GET RICH QUICK Gray is out of conditions following strong wins over 2nd and 3rd tier allowance fields. Last out he waited behind a walking pace, drove to the lead then had enough to hold off the closers. He had four of today's rivals behind him. His mid-pack style is ideally suited to this turf course. (# 8) GRASSHOPPER The Hopper is a quality runner but he hasn't won since his score in the Mineshaft a year ago. His return from a 6-month layoff in this year's edition of the Mineshaft was disappointing, both to his backers and to Neil Howard. This turf experiment will let them know what options they have with the Hopper. Sire Dixie Union is an average grass influence. (# 6) ANTRIM COUNTY is racing in very sharp and consistent form. Loves to win and has fine tactical speed. The hot Calhoun switches to his main go to rider Theriot for this stakes race. Gets his stiffest test to date today.

RACE EIGHT OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

5-2 winner WING A DING showed no speed with blinkers added. Raced in last into the far turn. Launched his rally from the top of the stretch racing widest. All out to run down the 8-5 favorite MR. R.B.I. who was best in my opinion. RBI was in a drive widest through the turn. Had to continue to work hard through the stretch to put away the speed. Edged clear at the 1/16th pole then was unable to hold off the late charge of the winner in a solid effort.

*** RACE EIGHT ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 4) MR. R. B.I. With two sprints under his belt this gelding beat maidens impressively when stretched out to a mile. He stalked a blazing pace, moved out for the drive and won with authority. Al Stall gives him a month to reload following that big win. A fast half mile breeze last Sunday indicates that he retains his edge. Think this improving 3yo can continue his development for a solid underrated trainer. The abundance of speed in the field should allow him to rate behind a hot pace as he did last time. Regular rider Jesse Campbell up. (# 5) WING A DING Did not run as well as expected last time whon going from a low percentage trainer to Tom Amoss. In his win two starts back he was taking advantage of a destructive pace. Amoss adds the hood this time, a move with which he wins 27% of the time. Should get a good pace setup. (# 6) TAKE A DAY Was most impressive beating maidens by 5 widening lengths in late December. Appeared well placed in his first start with winners but something went wrong and he was eased. Frank Leggio dropped him into claiming company last time where he won gamely with two of these chasing him home. He is bred to get the distance but he distributes his energy like a sprinter. (# 8) DESSY Beat Wing A Ding 2 lengths in last start, but he had the good rail post going a mile. Draws a much tougher post today (8) and has shown an affinity to run 2nd.

RACE SEVEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

2-1 favorite PLEASANT SONG rated towards the back of the pack. Steadied top of the stretch awaiting room. Cut inside in mid stretch then sustained a strong closing rally to edge clear late. Held off the closing rally from CAPE COD BAY who sat a perfect inside out trip. Closed willingly outside the winner late. LEXI’S BAY forced the pace from the start. No match to the top 2 late, but held well for third.

FRONTS ON RACE SEVEN by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 2) HARPETH adds front bandages for the first time.

SHOE REPAIR RACE SEVEN by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 1) CAPE COD BAY is getting a shoe repair in the paddock. Everything is fine and she is nowwalking well in the ring.

*** RACE SEVEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 5) ALLSEAS Forestry filly showed some talent last year before going down with an injury in May. In her first start back she finished evenly with out being abused in a sprint prep. Neil Howard has given her 4 stiff drills since that last race. Howard is excellent with developing youngsters and knows how to use prep races. (# 3) LEXI’S BAY 4yo filly has improved steadily in her 3 starts since returning from more than a year on the sidelines. After two close-up finishes on the grass she switched to the main track and finished a clear 2nd in a key race field. Can take another step forward as Springer moves her back to the grass. (# 6) PLEASANT SONG Gray filly by Unbridled's Song brought $700K as a yearling. She comes off her best race yet, a near miss following a flying finish. Dallas Stewart has her on the right track now and she could run to her potential. Switches from Hernandez back to Theriot. (# 1) CAPE COD BAY has had 17 chances to break her maiden which is a BIG negative, but she has been a consistent check collector. The positive is that she gets a positive trainer change to Thornbury who is having a strong meet.

RACE SIX OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

3-5 winner LAVANDULA blew by the field in mid stretch to draw off easily. 42-1 rank outside clunked up for 2nd passing very tired horses in the stretch. Not much else to say about this dash.

*** RACE SIX ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 6) LAVANDULA Finally got over the "three lifetime" hurdle after being stuck at that level for many months. She responded to the 8 weeks off with a booming 7-length win. She raced on turf and poly for much of last year but seems at her best on natural dirt. Opened up at 1-2 odds and figures to be odds on at the post. (# 1) SEXY WALK Won 3 of her last 4 starts and was hurt by a wide trip in the one that she lost. She moves to her final claiming condition, non-winners of four. This is a tougher spot but this filly may not have shown us her best race yet. Goes via claim from Morris Nicks to Sider, a negative change. (# 7) SOUTHERN RANSOM 7yo mare is a turf course specialist who has been pitched too high for much of her career. Calhoun pulls the plug on her today, dropping her to the bottom. Blinkers will go on for the first time in start #38. This is a very unusual pattern, but Calhoun has positive stats with multiple-level class droppers as well as those going from turf to dirt.

MID DAY BIAS UPDATE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

THERE IS NO BIAS ON DIRT OR GRASS.

RACE FIVE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

Top 2 finishers were making the grass debut. 5-1 winner ALLIGATOR BAYOU raced in mid pack early. Sustained a good closing rally on the far outside to run down WAR VETERAN and then had something left to fend off the fast closing DR. NELSON who was sent off at 67-1. War sat a perfect trip stalking in 2nd. Slipped thru along the rail to take command top of the stretch. Could not keep lead when swept on by as the winner drew clear in the late stages. 8-5 favorite HIGH TONED stalked outside in perfect position from the start. Dead aim in the stretch but came up completely empty.

***RACE FIVE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 10) HIGH TONED 5yo comes off three strong efforts against allowance company on the main track. This $25,000 claimer comes up soft for the level, so the class drop is quite significant. This will be the first time that High Toned has been offered for a claiming tag. In his only start on the turf he lost a head-bobbing decision in an allowance race over this course a year ago. Trainer Larry Robideaux puts the blinkers back on today. It is interesting to note that the last time this gelding raced with the hood was in his near miss on the grass last February. With his tactical speed and stalking style James Graham should get a good trip from the open outside post. (# 6) ALLIGATOR BAYOU After losing twice as the favorite he got his maiden win in his 3rd try. In his only start against winners he contested the pace for a half-mile against allowance colts. The grandson of Broad Brush could show an affinity for the grass. He is lightly raced and makes his first start for a claiming tag. (# 1) WAR VETERAN Set a fast and pressured pace before weakening in the late stages against this kind in the mud. One of just a few of these that is proven on the grass, he missed by a head against tougher company on the Louisiana Downs turf course. (# 4) BRANDON’S TROPHY 5yo hasn't won in ages but he has not missed the board in his last 10 starts. He is a half-brother to a turf winner, so he could take to the grass in his first opportunity. Very few Bayou-breds have turf in their bloodlines. (# 9) GOLDEN SOL Makes grass debut with a decent turf debut. Must overcome a tough outside post but is versatile enough to overcome it if given a heady ride.

RACE FOUR OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

9-2 winner CUBERA stalked the leaders outside. Challenged for the lead at the top of the stretch and held off SILVER INDY in game fashion. Indy rallied just outside and behind the winner. Every chance to go by but could not. ERIDSTON closed for 3rd from well off the pace. No threat to the top 2. 2-1 favorite SPICE HOUSE had no excuse after forcing the pace under a good hold. Totally empty from the 1/8th pole to the finish.

FRONT BANDAGES ON RACE FOUR by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 3) SILVER INDY gets fronts back on. Both starts with fronts he raced far back. (# 4) JUDGE EGAN adds fronts for the first time.

*** RACE FOUR ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 5) SPICE HOUSE Given a 10-week freshening by Greg Foley following a powerful win over "three lifetime" claimers on New Year's Eve. The 4yo needs frequent breaks and runs well fresh. In that last win he waited behind a slow pace then drove to the lead and drew off while covering the final quarter in :23 3/5. These multiple winners are only a small step up. (# 1) ERDISON 8yo has been consistently close against this kind and slightly better in his four recent starts. He ran into a buzzsaw in his only try at this level. He gets a pivotal rider change, going from a low % rider to a late rider change to James Graham. Trainer John Good quietly wins with 20% of his starters. (# 3) SILVER INDY With two fourth place finishes under his belt the nearly white 8yo can move forward in his 3rd start off a long layoff. He has won or placed in 5 of his 12 starts over this dirt course. Has back class. Theriot replaces Jacinto. (# 6) CUBERA Makes his 1st start off the Bourgeois claim who is deadly with new acquisitions. Versatile gelding can stalk the pace or make 1 late run. Only negative is that is a Louisiana bred against open company while stepping back up in class. Still dangerous in here.

RACE THREE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

5-2 second choice FORTYNINE LANDING stalked quitting speed until taking command approaching the stretch. All out to hold off CHOCTAW PRINCE who sat a perfect trip. Had dead aim on the winner from the top of the stretch, but unable to punch it in late. Favorite JUSTIN TIME BANDIT had no excuse rallying late for a no threat 3rd. BOUNDARY ZONE who was the “hot” betting horse opening up at odds on but drifting up to 8-1 at post, was well meant as he loomed turing for home. Dead aim thru the stretch, but drifted out and in the lane under weak handling.

BETTING ACTION RACE THREE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 9) BOUNDARY ZONE, who opened up at 4-5 odds, is at 2-1 affter being 74-1 in his last start. No idea why he is so short in price. Nevertheless it would surprise me if he were to win.

*** RACE THREE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 11) JUSTIN TIME BANDIT In his first start of the season he finished 4th after contesting the pace all the way. Surprisingly, he was taken to the back of the pack and not allowed to use his speed last time. He rallied belatedly for 3rd and was going fastest at the wire. Look for him to use his speed this time with the switch to Theriot. (# 6) FORTYNINE LANDING Showed speed for a half mile against maiden special colts in his first outing since June. That was just his 2nd lifetime start. He returns 3 1/2 months later in a maiden claimer. This will be his first try with Lasix. Lonnie Meche stays with him. (# 8) CHOCTAW PRINCE Earned a good figure two starts back when he missed by just over a length. He was not as sharp when finishing mid-pack last time. Has had quite a few chances but is usually in the hunt. (# 9) BOUNDARY ZONE opened up a very short odds on favorite. Not sure why as I feel that there is nothing in his form to suggest such a low price. He will no doubt drift up in price.

RACE TWO OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

Bombs away with the top 2 finishers running 1-2 around the track. 20-1 winner UNO DUCKSY set a pressured pace along the inside. Looked finished approaching the stretch when beginning to drop back. Came again top of the stretch to edge clear late of CHANGING STORM who pressed the pace outside the winner. Solid grass debut. Took command approaching the stretch, then could not contain that rival late. ACTUAL FACT closed late for 3rd passing the favorite HOPE FOR US ALL who had dead aim on the leaders turning for home. No punch late in a disappointing effort. The exacta paid $512 and the trifecta returned A WHOPPING $5,373.

NEW GELDINGS IN RACE TWO by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 2) HOPE FOR ALL OF US, (# 6) SPANTASTIC and (# 10) QUACK IN THE WALL are all first time geldings.

*** RACE TWO ANALYSIS IS FOUND BELOW *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

RACE ONE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

2-5 favorite and winner TIZ THE MAN hustled to the lead from the start. Set a pressured pace under a good hold with the second finisher DOUSEEWHAT’IMSAYIN right off his flanks. Disposed of that rival and held on well despite ducking out sharply in deep stretch but quickly was straightened. STORMIN SKIP had dead aim the length of the stretch to snatch 2nd, but unable to do so with no excuse. The exacta paid a measly $4.40 and the trifecta $10.00.

WAGERING PATTERNS RACE ONE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

THE 1-2 EXACTA HAS DRIFTED UP TO $5.00 AS THE # 2 STARTS TO GET BET DOWN TO 2-1. THE 1-2 DOUBLE HAS ALSO DRIFTED UP A DOLLAR TO $7.00.

FRONT BANDAGES RACE ONE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 7) KY SUNNY CAT WHO IS 23-1 WITH 6 MINUTES TO GO, ADDS FRONT BANDAGES FOR THE FIRST TIME WHICH IS A BIG NEGATIVE.

WAGERING PATTERNS RACE ONE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

WITH 10 MINUTES TO RACE ONE, THE 1-2 EXACTA (THE 1-5 FAVORITE OVER THE 5-1 SECOND CHOICE IS PAYING A VERY SHORT $4.00. THE SAME NUMBERS, 1-2 IN THE DAILY DOUBLE IS $6.00 WHICH IS A VERY LOW $6.00. CERTAINLY THIS COULD BE THE FINISH OF BOTH RACES, BUT I FEEL THAT THEY ARE AWFULLY SHORT PRICES TO TAKE.

*** ANALYSIS OF RACE 2, THE SECOND HALF OF THE EARLY DOUBLE *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 2) HOPE FOR US Royal Anthem colt comes off three mid-pack finishes in maiden special company. He has been finishing steadily with final quarter times near 24 seconds. Training steadily following a 6-week break from trainer Mike Stidham. The class drop makes him the one to beat. Stidham wins 28% of the time when going from MSW to a maiden claimer. (# 10) QUACK IN THE WALL Beat a good field of Lone Star maidens in his debut but was DQ'd for racing greenly in deep stretch. He missed narrowly in his 2nd start despite being roughed at the start. Calhoun put him away for the year following a dull effort in his 3rd start. Training like he is ready. (# 9) GUNNISLAKE Son of Straight Man drops into maiden claiming company for the first time. He has been finishing fairly well against some tough maiden special fields. Two strong recent 5F drills are a positive sign. Trainer Mark Casse has positive stats with this class drop. (# 5) PRESIDENTE D’ORO Although he finished last in a 6-horse field he was not badly beaten in his first start of the season. That was also his first start for Trainer Morris Nicks. Figures to look improved with this drop into a maiden claimer, a winning maneuver for this high % trainer. (# 6) Must excuse lone grass start in debut. Very wide trip from tough outside post in a MSW. 2nd grass start today but 1st in a maiden claimer. Scherer barn having a good meet.

*** RACE ONE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

(# 1) TIZ THE MAN NOW Showed much improved early and mid-race energy in his game maiden win last out. Asmussen drops him into a soft "two lifetime" claimer that may not be any tougher. Another like that last one would be very hard for this soft group to handle. Asmussen apparently figures that this one is not going to have a long racing career. Very likely to be claimed. Expected to be an odds on favorite in here (# 2) DOUSEEWHATI’MSAYING Double-jumped in class and finished a decent 4th in his most recent start. Top contender this afternoon as his low profile trainer drops him back to the basement. He ran a big race 4 starts back but does not fire every time. Tries with blinkers on. (# 5) STORMIN SKIP Vastly improved last 2 starts cutting back to today’s 6f and reunited with Meche.

TRACK CONDITIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

MAIN TRACK IS FAST. THE GRASS COURSE IS FIRM.

INTRODUCTION by The Wizard on Saturday, March 07, 2009

WELCOME TO “LIVEWITHTHEWIZARD” AT THE FAIR GROUNDS

My format for Saturday’s card at the Fair Grounds will be the following: I will provide you with detailed analysis on horses I feel are contenders for all ten races. This analysis will be posted no later than ten minutes to post. Once the horses are in the paddock, and enter the track for the post parade, I will post any observations that I feel are important. I will always keep you informed if I notice any betting patterns. Following the race, after I watch the pan shot as well as the head on, I will point out important trips and horses to watch when they run back, only if I have a strong opinion. I will keep you abreast of any prevailing track bias throughout the day. Following the day’s program, I will list those horses, which might be good betting opportunities the next time they run back.