HORSES TO WATCH, BIAS REPORT AND OTHER INFO. by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

THERE WAS NO BIAS ON DIRT OR GRASS TODAY. IT DEPENDED ON HOW YOU HANDLED BOTH SURFACES.

HORSES TO WATCH

(Race 3) SWING N JONES
(Race 5) LE CORDON BLEU
(Race 10) KODIAK COWBOY

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RACE TWELVE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

Even money favorite VALIANCY chased outside through the turn. Stiff drive to run down the quitting pacesetter PACIFIC TSUNAMI holding off the closing GALLATIN FOREST who loomed late but was outfinished. This win gave Asmussen his third score on the day.

HORSES TO WATCH LIST, FINAL TRACK BIAS REPORT AND OTHER INFO FOLLOWING RACE 12 OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

HUGE UPSET AT OAKLWAN!!! by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

55-1 upset winner WIN WILLY mowed down the 1-5 favorite OLD FASHIONED in the Grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn. You could tell that Old Fashioned was a tired horse in mid stretch. Clearly proved today that he has distance limitations. Friesen Fire is clearly the better horse after today's results. Both are trained by Larry Jones.

*** RACE TWELVE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

(# 1) OYSTER CAT makes his first dirt start. Shows good form, draws the rail and has tactical speed. Cuts back to sprint today. Bred for a wet track. Needs an expected quick pace to close into. (# 8) PACIFIC TSUNAMI Steps up after a game win in last over the slop at today’s distance. Can be on or near the lead. From red hot barn. (# 13)VALIANCY draws in from the AE’s. Asmussen scratched Unbridle’s Dream in favor of this returnee. Has good tactical speed. Reunited with Bridgemohan. (# 4) GALLATIN FOREST returns for the always dangerous Autrey barn. Good races both starts. Faced stakes company in last running a very good third. A “live” price play.

RACE ELEVEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

Perfectly timed rally from 8-1 winner BUDGET who blew by the field in the last 100 yards. Solid debut from BURIEDBEYONDBELIEF who made a strong wide middle move to challenge lead top of the stretch. Continued his rally to deep stretch only to be run down nearing the wire. Came in on CHARLIE TRUMPER late and was disqualified. 6-5 favorite TOTAL GENTLEMAN raced in perfect striking position on the outside. Asked for run approaching the stretch but came up empty. Could not handle the wet track at all.

DISQUALIFICATION RACE ELEVEN by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

First timer BURIEDBEYONDBELIEVE was disqualified from second and placed third. CHARLIE TRUMPER who ran third was placed second.

INQUIRY RACE 11 by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

STEWARDS INQUIRY BETWEEN SECOND FINISHER BURIEDBEYONDBELIEVE AND CHARLIE TRUMPER NEARING THE MILE LINE.

*** RACE ELEVEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

(# 13) TOTAL GENTLEMAN is a deserving favorite after a solid debut running 2nd behind stable mate OMNICIENT who came back to win impressively today. Bred well for a wet track. From the hot Asmussen barn. (# 10) BUDGET Has run well all 3 starts. Rallied wide for 4th in last, but galloped out well past the wire suggesting that he is clearly at his best going long. (# 14) CHARLIE TRUMPER ran a good 2nd in last start in an off the turf race. Showed much improved early speed catching a wet track for the first time. (# 9) MIZZEN’S WAKE has shown steady improvement for the red hot Dollase barn. Has good tactical speed. Back on dirt and races over a wet track for the first time.

RACE TEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

3-1 winner SOK SOK sat a perfect trip in mid pack racing wide. Had a clear run through the stretch to take lead at the 1/16th pole and held off KODIAK COWBOY who was tons the best. Forced in a bit leaving the gate and bumped slightly into the rail. Dropped back to mid pack racing between horses. Lacked room top of the stretch until bulling his way between horses inside the 1/16th pole. Found his best stride too late. IKIGAI was off a step slow. Moved up to stalk the pace down on the fence. Forced to steady on the turn when in tight. Had no punch in the stretch then faded.

*** RACE TEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

(# 2) IKIGAI 4yo colt was brilliant winning Gulfstream's Mr. Prospector in 1:09 1/5 two starts back. He was best in the 7 furlong Richter Scale last time when he was caught at the wire after dueling through a blazing :44 3/5 half mile. Marty Wolfson, who has developed him into an elite sprinter, has him well placed this afternoon. Son of Whywhywhy does not figure to be heavily pressured on the lead and will appreciate the cut back to 6 furlongs. His main rival and likely favorite, Kodiak Kowboy, may be left with too much to do. Jermaine Bridgmohan comes in for the mount. (# 1) KODIAK COWBOY Late runner closed the year with a decent effort in the Cigar Mile, a distance further than he prefers. Larry Jones has given him 5 drills since Kowboy returned from his winter vacation. 4yo enters off his best work, a near-bullet 5F breeze. Last July he won a G2 stakes at Saratoga off a similar layoff. He has on occasion shown some tactical speed. Saez may use some of it today. (# 7) SOK SOK Returned from nearly a year on the sidelines to win the Thanksgiving Hcp with ease. He was not badly beated at Santa Anita in the Sunshine Millions sprint. He also won the Sugar Bowl here last season. His Sugar Bowl win was brilliant and a return to that form gives him a shot at the win. (# 6) SUCCESS SUCCESS 6yo has been given an 8-week break by Paul McGee following the best race of his career. He prevailed after a stiff drive to win the Forego on the Turfway polytrack. He is 2 for 5 over this course and runs well fresh. Will be tested for class.

RACE NINE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

2-1 favorite FRIESAN FIRE simply demolished the field relishing the wet track. Rated kindly by Seaz. Asked for run approaching the stretch and left the others in his wake. This is an improving and serious 3 year old for the classics. The fact that he can handle a wet or dry surface, rated beautifully and has one of the best trainers in the country makes him an obvious major contender for the Derby. PAPA CLEM making his first start on dirt, set the pace from the start. Offered no resistance to the winner but held gamely for second over TERRAIN who made multiple moves during the running. Dead aim for second through the stretch but could not get by. GIANT OAK had no early speed as expected, passing tired horses late. Those behind the winner are clearly not Derby horses.

*** ANALYSIS OF THE LOUISIANA DERBY *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

ANALYSIS ON EVERY HORSE IN THE RACE BY POST POSITION ORDER. MY SELECTIONS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE PAGE.

(# 1) FREE COUNTRY-Disappointing fourth place finish Feb 14 in the Sam Davis at Tampa where he had no punch in the stretch. He was bet down to the 9-5 favorite following two sharp victories, one at two turns at Gulfstream. An improved performance is possible with the addition of blinkers and drawing post one. Free Country does not have a race or a workout at the Fair Grounds which does not help his cause.

(# 2) SOUL WARRIOR-He has only a maiden win to his credit and that was at two turns over this track. Soul Warrior was tested for class in the Risen Star but only passed tired horses late racing wide throughout from post ten. He was beaten in his debut by Free Country who breaks right to his inside. Could improve breaking from post two and reunited with Bridgmohan.

(# 3) PATENA-Makes his first start for trainer Richard Dutrow following a private purchase by IEAH stables who attempts to win their second straight Kentucky Derby. Strong second to Friesan Fire in the La Comte making his first start on dirt after showing steady improvement over polytrack at Woodbine in Canada. Has good tactical speed and an inside post, both factors which can only help.

(# 4) TERRAIN-I am willing to excuse his poor performance last time out in the Delta Jackpot as the 5-2 favorite. He showed improved speed with blinkers added, but back up badly through the stretch. Solid efforts in his prior three starts over synthetic surfaces despite showing no early speed and tough trips each time. Blinkers are removed on Saturday. Terrain must overcome more than a three month layoff as well as facing three-year-olds for the first time.

(# 5) FLYING PEGASUS-Despite running second, beaten two lengths by Friesen Fire in the Risen Star, I felt he was probably best. He was forced to overcome post 12 and a very wide trip throughout. Flying Pegasus dug in gamely through the stretch in his first start around two turns. Jockey Robby Albarado who was aboard that day, elects to stay aboard with Patena. John Velazquez flies in for the mount.

(# 6) GIANT OAK-Was a non threatening fifth in the Risen Star, but would have been much closer with a cleaner trip. Giant Oak was shuffled back while racing in traffic on the turn then was blocked behind horses at the top of the stretch. Angled out widest in the stretch then finished “sneaky” well too late. He galloped out strong past the wire.

(# 7) UNO MAS-Has picked up checks in the LeComte and Risen Star, but in both he had no punch in the stretch when it counted. Uno Mas is one paced and figures to get another wide trip from post seven. Several in here look more interesting than him.

(# 8) PAPA CLEM-Is the wild card in the Louisiana Derby. He makes his first start on dirt after running four times over synthetic surfaces at Hollywood Park and Santa Anita. Papa Clem ran an excellent second last time in a Grade 2 stake at Santa Anita Defeating I Want Revenge who shipped to Aqueduct and crushed the field in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct last Saturday making his first start over dirt. Papa Clem has won both his starts around two turns. He has excellent tactical speed but could be hard used early from an outside post to be on the lead or stalking. The big question is whether or not he will have enough left for the stretch drive.

(# 9) FRIESAN FIRE-There is no doubt that he will be the post time favorite after winning both his starts at the Fair Grounds in the Grade 3 LeComte and Risen Star. In both races he showed excellent tactical speed and a strong finish. Friesan Fire has two strong workouts in preparation of the Louisiana Derby. He has shown he can adapt to racing to a quick or moderate pace. He has learned to relax early which will allow rider Saez to move into perfect striking position early on. If he can avoid a wide trip chasing an expected lively pace, he can win sweep all three Graded Stakes at the Fair Grounds.

(# 10) NOWHERE TO HIDE-Despite running a good fourth in the Risen Star off just a maiden win, it is unlikely he can improve over that performance breaking from the far outside post. Likes several others in the field, Nowhere To Hide possesses good tactical speed, but there is no doubt he will be hard used early and hung out wide throughout which will be a very tough task for him to overcome.

RACE ANALYSIS:

The Louisiana Derby is very interesting and competitive race in which several horses are eligible to win. PATENA, FLYING PEGASUS, GIANT OAK, PAPA CLEM and FRIESEN FIRE all have the credentials to take home the top prize. It is likely that Patena can improve on his second place finish in the LeComte making his first start for Dutrow which is a strong angle. FLYING PEGASUS ran big off the layoff and any further improvement can land him in the winners circle. GIANT OAK had the toughest journey in the Risen Star. He should get a lively pace to close into. With a cleaner trip he is a major danger. Papa Clem must prove he can handle dirt and avoid being caught up in a contested lively pace. These are big “ifs”. With I Want Revenge winning so easily in the Gotham, a win by Papa Clem would go a long way in pointing out that the three year olds in southern California are a better group than those elsewhere at this point in time. Friesan Fire is a deserving favorite. He loves the track, has a great trainer in Larry Jones and is two for two with rider Saez aboard. His outside post and the fact that he could be over bet is enough to take a shot against him.

SELECTIONS:

1st-PATENA
2nd-GIANT OAK
3th-FRIESAN FIRE
4th-FLYING PEGASUS
5th-PAPA CLEM

RACE EIGHT OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

3-1 winner PROUDJINSKY won this race last year over a wet grass course and did it again here with a superb ride by Espinoza who was able not to lose much ground into the first turn despite breaking from post 12. Chased between horses until easing outside at the top of the stretch. Battled tooth and nail through the stretch and just got the bob over EL CABALLO who ran huge. Set a pressured pace from the start. Dug in gamely the entire stretch and was out nodded at the wire. Ran too good to lose. NOWNOWNOW raced in back and wide to the top of the stretch. Continued wide in the stretch and just ran out of ground in a 3 horse photo finish. 2-1 favorite SOLDIER’S DANCER raced far back as usual. Swung very wide into the lane and finished best of all too late.

*** RACE EIGHT ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

(# 6) SOLDIER'S DANCER Gray 5yo is being very nicely managed by David Vivian. He returned from a 4-month break to score two big wins at Calder in the fall. Appeared best two starts back in the Tropical Park Hcp when he missed by a nose after covering the final 3/8 in a brilliant :34 1/5. After being dead last in a 13-horse field he rallied to get the win at Santa Anita in the Sunshine Millions Turf last time. That win was strengthened when the 2nd place finisher, Presious Passion, came back to win a G2 stakes at Gulfstream in his next start. Rafael Bejarano rode him for the first time last out and will return. (# 12) TRANSDUCTION GOLD Got his first win since 2007 when he beat a tough allowance field over this course. He has been on the board several times against graded stakes company. He finished 2nd in the Del Mar Hcp and 4th in Hollywood's Sunset. Had been running in marathons but may be at his best at a middle distance. The price seems sure to be right here. (# 10) NOWNOWNOW Comes off two good tries on the artificial surface at Santa Anita, a win in the San Fernando and a close-up finish in the Strub. In the Strub he covered the final furlong in :11 4/5. He has been a different colt since moving to the Biancone barn 3 starts back. Could show us his best race yet with this switch back to the grass. Prado takes over the mount. (# 13) PROUDJINSKY Well traveled 6yo has been freshened since his win in Santa Anita's San Gabriel in late December. In his only start here at Fair Grounds he won the 2008 edition of this race. He was coming off the San Gabriel then as well. Has been competitive with the best turf horses all over the country.

RACE SEVEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

10-1 winner MACHO AGAIN rebounded from 2 dismal efforts with a come from behind victory back on a wet track. He got a great ride by Albarado who was notching his 4th win on the card. Big race by SECRET GETAWAY who set a pressured pace from the start. Dug in gallantly in deep stretch, but was outfinished. He clearly ran the best race of the two. IT’S A BIRD ran very well forcing the pace from the start. Tired at the 1/16th pole but was clearly best of the rest. Disappointing race from the 2-1 favorite HONEST MAN who raced in mid pack. Made a mild wide rally to be in good striking position approaching the stretch, but had nothing in the lane.

*** MID DAY BIAS UPDATE *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

THE MAIN TRACK CONTINUES TO BE SLOPPY AND THE GRASS COURSE WAS UPGRADED TO GOOD. THERE IS NO BIAS ON THE MAIN TRACK. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW HORSES HANDLE THIS TOUGH SURFACE. ONLY 1 GRASS RACE SO FAR WHICH MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A BIAS, BUT CLOSERS DO VERY WELL HERE WHEN THE TURF IS "OFF".

*** RACE SEVEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

(# 10) HONEST MAN 5yo had a big year for Larry Jones in 2008 that included a win in Monmouth's Iselin but never looked better than he did winning the Mineshaft last out. He got the stalking trip that he prefers after being used on the lead in his first start of the winter. In the Mineshaft Saez sat chilly stalking widest behind the slow pace set by My Pal Charlie. Cruised up to challenge that rival at the top of the stretch, then disposed of him easily and drew clear with complete authority in a fine effort. Would not be surprised if he ran even better this time in his 3rd start of the season. (# 1) IT’S A BIRD Had been in rather ordinary form before his booming win in the Sunshine Millions Classic. He kicked away powerfully with a big final fraction after pressing moderate fractions. That was by far the best race of his career. Fine trainer Marty Wolfson has given him 7 weeks to reload with this spot in mind. Very dangerous if he can run another like it. (# 6) WISHFUL TOMCAT Won 3 straight in NY including the G3 Discovery before moving from Contessa to Frankel. In Santa Anita's San Fernando he looked like he might win it in deep stretch but settled for 3rd. In the Strub last time he led into the final furlong before tiring. This course is kinder to his front running style than is the Pro Ride surface at Santa Anita. (# 8 ) GOOD AND LUCKY Relishes a wet track but must improve a few lengths today to turn the tables on Honest Man. Certainly has the credentials to do so. (# 3) SECRET GETAWAY can be a factor if he runs back to his sharp win over slop 3 starts back. Gets Desormeaux. (# 4) DRY MARTINI has run some decent races in the past over wet tracks, but would have to improve on his recent form to be dangerous here.

RACE SIX OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

1-5 winner RACHEL ALEXANDRA ran to her short odds with a decisive victory over FLYING SPUR who ran well and was clearly best of the rest. The margin of victory could have been more, but rider Borel just eased up on her in the final 100 yards. She is clearly the best 3 year old filly in America AT THIS TIME. Second choice FOUR GIFT was just spinning her ways on the wet going. Will improve back on a dry surface.

TURF COURSE UPGRADE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

THE GRASS COURSE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO "GOOD".

WAGERING ACTION by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

With 5 minutes to go. the 3-2 exacta is still at $4.00. The 2-3 exacta is $16.00 which shows you how strong the favorite is being bet.

*** RACE SIX ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

NOTE:BECAUSE OF RACHELS 1-9 ODDS, THE EXACTA WITH THE SECOND CHOICE IN THE WAGERING FOUR GIFTS is a measly $4.00 with 17 minutes to go. Don't expect to get much more than this if you decide to wager.

(# 3) RACHEL ALEXANDRA In Churchill's G2 Goldenrod the brilliant filly easily beat a stellar field that included subsequent Silverbulletday winner War Echo. She came back to dust the field in the G3 Martha Washington at Oaklawn. One of the nation's best 3yo fillies, she will be very hard to deny here. Calvin Borel was aboard for those two big wins and will return. (# 2) FOUR GIFTS Was not at her best when she finished a distant 3rd in the Tiffany Lass, her first start of the meet. Came back in top form last out when she finished a close 2nd to War Echo in the G3 Silverbulletday. She earned a good figure when winning the G3 Delta Princess 3 starts back. Has never finished off the board. Albarado returns to ride.

RACE FIVE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

9-2 COY CAT made a huge wide rally approaching the stretch. Continued to sustain that late run through the stretch, running down a sharp LADY CHASE nearing the wire. LE CORDON found her best stride too late down the middle of the track and was a fast closing third. Galloped out strong past the wire suggesting she should continue to improve stretching out in distance. Favorite CLASSIFY raced in good striking position on the turn. Dropped back into the stretch, then could only finish evenly in a disappointing effort.

*** RACE FIVE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

NOTE: ALL FOUR OF THE HORSES HAVE SHOWN GOOD WET TURF FORM

(# 4) CLASSIFY Gray mare has won 8 of her 20 starts and is 2 for 2 over the local turf course. In her first start of the meet she scored a dominating win over a field like this in the Leggio Memorial. She then settled for 2nd behind Precious Kiss in the Pan Zareta that was taken off the turf. Has contending speed and a strong finishing kick. Another well placed runner from Asmussen who could have another big day. (# 7) LADY CHASE Held a late lead in the Leggio but could not hold off Classify in deep stretch. She came back to beat a good allowance field in an "off the turfer". The late blooming 4yo has been a different filly since returning from a 4-month layoff in December. The choice to win it if the race comes off the grass. (# 9) COY CAT Used her late run to beat 1st and 2nd tier allowance fillies over this course. Last time out she chased Lady Chace home on the main track. She is another late bloomer who has found a home on this turf course. The switch to Albarado is a plus. (# 2) TALETOBETOLD Ran nothing but good races against this kind last fall but failed to fire last out at Gulfstream. She had been idle for 7 weeks and figures to benefit from that outing. Enters off a fast half mile breeze at Palm Meadows, her 3rd drill since her last start. Reunited with Leparoux who won on him 3 starts back.

RACE FOUR OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

9-5 second choice OMNISCIENT chased between horses until easing out widest into the stretch. Strong steady rally to get the lead at the 1/16th pole and edge clear as much the best. NORTHERN PRINCE rated nicely in 4th along the rail. Angled out in mid stretch and wore down the favorite AU MOON late for 2nd. Au Moon middled moved into a lively pace to challenge for lead on the turn. Battled gamely along the rail through the stretch, but no match for the winner and then outfinished for 2nd. No excuse for FIERCE THUNDER who loomed widest into the turn. Flattened out badly from there.

*** RACE FOUR ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

(# 4) OMNISCIENT $280,000 son of Pulpit looked good in his sprint debut, a strong 2nd place finish against a key race field. As expected, he took a big step forward when Asmussen stretched him out in his 2nd start. Albarado rated him in mid-pack then drove to the lead at the top of the lane and drew off. Asmussen is excellent with developing youngers as he showed with Curlin. This colt could be any kind. (# 3) AU MOON Beat a good field of Churchill maidens in his 2nd start, his first try around two turns. David Carroll then jumped him into the G3 Lecomte where he finished a solid 3rd behind Derby contenders Patena and Friesan Fire. He tried the big boys again last time in the G3 Risen Star but was never involved. Drops into allowance company with 3 strong drills since the Risen Star. Regular rider Julien Leparoux up. (# 7) FIERCE THUNDER Thunder Gulch colt showed plenty of promise when he finished 2nd to his brilliant barn mate Captain Cherokee. He rated off the pace that time then found himself on the lead when beating maidens in his 2nd start. Look for him to revert to stalking tactics today. This is another developing youngster that is eligible to continue improving. Strong win last out on a wet surface at the Fair Grounds. Brian Hernandez back in the irons. (# 5) NORTHERN PRINCE Ran a decent race when second on the slop last out in his two turn debut. Any improvement makes him a factor in here.

RACE THREE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

5-2 first timer KISSIMMEE KYLE, who I mentioned was taking a lot of money, just edged out the 2-1 favorite SWING N JONES in a game effort. Had to overcome a slow start and the rail to outgame that rival. He was also forced to alter course to the outside to continue his rally. The rest of the fields were no threat.

FIRST TIMER by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

The 1st timer (# 1) KISSIMMEE KYLE continues to take money in all pools. With 6 minutes to go, he has dropped to 2-1.

"LIVE" 1st timer in race 3. by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

(# 1) First timer KISSIMMEE KYLE opened up at 3-1 and is 5-2 with 10 minutes to go. He is also taking money in the exactas. Certainly a danger, but it is very difficult to win from the rail as a firster.

*** RACE THREE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

(# 4) SWING N JONES Gray son of Seneca Jones ran sneaky well in his debut for Bret Calhoun. Following a rough start he made a 4-wide move on the turn then continued wide into the lane. He tired gradually in the final furlong. Should move forward this afternoon for a trainer whose 2nd time starters improve notoriously. Calhoun, who has won with 26% of his starters here, switches to Theriot. (# 3) GYROBALL Storm Day colt finished 3rd in his debut despite being dismissed at long odds. He raced in mid-pack then made a 3-wide move on the turn before finishing evenly. Can build on that effort as Robideaux brings him back in a similar spot. In light with apprentice Dugas retaining the mount. (# 9) INCONSEQUENTIAL Raced far back to the stretch then made belated moves to get up for 2nd in each of his last two. That deep closing style puts him at a disadvantage over this course, but he could be the beneficiary if a stiff speed duel should develop. Trainer Brinkman has won or placed with 5 of his 11 starters here. (# 6) CAJUN PERSUATION Orientate gelding has blazing speed but the way his races have been spaced out indicates that he has problems. Has been working steadily for Guillot, so he could be set for his best race yet. He held late leads in both starts. Graham replaces Theriot who opts to ride Swing N Jones. (# 2) SEAN LAFITTE Ran “sneaky” well last out over the slop. Had traiffc early then finished evenly while wide all way. Added distance should help. (# 5) AUGUSTUS MACRAY could be a factor in here if able to run back to his 2nd place finish two starts back.

RACE TWO OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

3-1 winner THE Q CLUB handled the wet track very well. Stalked the two horse contested pace from the outside. Under a stiff drive through the stretch to wear down a very game DOUBLE HELIX who forced the pace between horses from the start. Just outfinished. TIME IS CRUCIAL passed tired horses on the far outside to be third. Could not have had a better set up to close on. The favorite BLUEHARD dueled inside from the start. Held to the top of the stretch then faded in a weak return.

VET SCRATCH-HORSES TAKEN OUT OF GATE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

(# 1) THE 2-1 FAVORITE SMITH BE QUICK IS A VET SCRATCH. THERE WILL BE A CONSOLOTION DOUBLE AND PICK 3. CHECK YOUR TICKETS. HORSES HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE GATE AND WILL BE RELOADED.

*** RACE TWO ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

NOTE: UNLIKE THE LAST RACE IN WHICH THERE WAS VERY LITTLE WET TRACK FORM, MANY IN THIS FIELD HAVE SHOWN THEY CAN HANDLE IT VERY WELL WHICH MAKES THIS ANOTHER DIFFICULT RACE.

(# 7) THE Q CLUB Lightly raced 5yo has won 4 of his 9 starts over this course. He looked like damaged goods when Sider plunged him to $12,500 while adding front wraps last time. That was apparently a bit of equine poker as "The Q" won easily in fast time. Keith Bourgeois, who called Sider's bluff and claimed him, confidently triple-jumps the gelding in class. Has the high % pressing style and draws Torres. Main negative is that he has never raced on a wet track. (# 1) SMITH BE QUICK 4yo got the class drop that he needed two starts back and scored a gate to wire win over $25K claimers. He then ran surprisingly well when jumped back into allowance/optional company last time. Dueled on a moderate pace then held on well to miss by just two lengths. This drop back into a claimer gives him a good chance. (# 5) DOUBLE HELIX Got the tightener that he needed after being on the sidelines since September. 4yo set a pressured pace to the stretch and only weakened in the final sixteenth. Figures to improve with recency as Breaux brings him back at the same level. He does not need to be on the lead. (# 3) BLUEHARD has only raced once on a wet track and the result was a strong front running win. Faces pressure on the front end, but off that race he is clearly a major contender. (# 4) PANTARA PHANTOM is 2 for 2 on wet tracks and despite cutting back in distance, he must be considered. (# 8) TIME IS CRUCIAL has no speed and to win must rally from far back. He is 1 for 1 on a wet track, but still appears to need everything go his way to win this.

RACE ONE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

9-2 winner MAN NAMED SUE who had only grass form into the race, enjoyed the going today. Stalked the quitting pacesetter WATZ HIS NAME. Disposed of the rival at the top of the stretch and had plenty left to hold off the fast closing SALIC LAW. They could have run around again and the winner would still not be caught. The rest of the field had no impact.

ADDITIONAL CONTENDER IN RACE ONE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

(# 2) PURSUE A DREAM shows only one wet track race in which he ran out of the money. But that was last winter as a three year old in a stake at Delta. As far as wet track breeding goes, he is by far the best bred one in the field and for that reason he must be considered in his current good form.

*** RACE ONE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

Most of the horses entered in race one, which has been taken off the grass, show little or no wet track experience which makes this a very tricky affair. (# 8) SALIC LAW Appears to have the best wet track form of any in here. Beaten a neck when second three starts back on the slop in an off the turf race at today's level. (# 9) BAMBOO GAP ran well in his lone wet track race when third. Drops back to $17,500, the level in which he scored a decisive win two starts back. Has tactical speed and loves to win. (# 11) LOVE CONQUERS Shows a couple of third place finishers on wet tracks. Main plus for him is that he loves the mile distance. (# 7) WATZ HIS NAME has all seven career wins on dirt, but only two starts on a wet track. Did run second in the goo, but that was slow race. Nevertheless as a longshot he should be considered a contender against this bunch.

3 RACES TAKEN OFF THE GRASS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

Races one, eleven and twelve are all taken off the grass and switched to the sloppy main track. All three races will be run at the same distance as listed in the program or past performances.

WIZARD PRODUCTS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

VISIT MY WEB SITE AT: WWW.WIZARDSELECTIONS.COM YOU CAN READ SEVERAL ARTICLES WRITTEN ABOUT ME THROUGHOUT THE YEARS, SEE SAMPLES OF ALL MY PRODUCTS AND READ MY 10 RULES IN BECOMING A SUCCESSFUL HANDICAPPER.

NOTE: I OFFER SEVERAL PRODUCTS, AVAILABLE ON THE BRISNET WEBSITE. I COVER ALL THE MAJOR RACE TRACKS IN MY DAILY SELECTION SHEETS. MY SPECIALTY PRODUCTS INCLUDE THE WIZARD'S PICK OF THE DAY, THE SIMULCAST BEST BETS SHEET, MY PICK 3 / PICK 6 AND TRIFECTA SHEET AND THE SUPERFECTA PLAY OF THE DAY. EVERY PRODUCT INCLUDES DETAILED ANALYSIS ON ALL MY SELECTIONS, IN ADDITION TO MY DAILY SHEETS, WHICH OFFER THREE OF MY STRONGEST BETS ON THE DAY FOR THAT PARTICULAR TRACK, ALL OTHER WIZARD PRODUCTS GIVE YOU THE ALL IMPORTANT WAGERING STRATEGIES FOR EVERY PLAY. I UTILIZE MANY YEARS OF WAGERING ON HORSES, TO HELP YOU MAKE SOME NICE SCORES. IF YOU WANT TO VIEW PAST DAY RESULTS FOR ALL MY PRODUCTS, THESE RESULTS ARE ARCHIVED ON THE BRISNET WEB SITE.

NOTE: IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN PURCHASING ANY WIZARD PRODUCT, YOU CAN PHONE: 1 800 354-9206 AND ASK FOR CUSTOMER SERVICE.

INTRODUCTION by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

WELCOME TO “LIVEWITHTHEWIZARD” AT THE FAIR GROUNDS

My format for Saturday’s card at the Fair Grounds will be the following: I will provide you with detailed analysis on horses I feel are contenders for all ten races. This analysis will be posted no later than ten minutes to post. Once the horses are in the paddock, and enter the track for the post parade, I will post any observations that I feel are important. I will always keep you informed if I notice any betting patterns. Following the race, after I watch the pan shot as well as the head on, I will point out important trips and horses to watch when they run back, only if I have a strong opinion. I will keep you abreast of any prevailing track bias throughout the day. Following the day’s program, I will list those horses, which might be good betting opportunities the next time they run back.

UPDATED TRACK CONDITIONS AS OF 1 PM (EST) by The Wizard on Saturday, March 14, 2009

As a result of recent rain, the main track is sloppy and the grass course is yielding. I will update you throughout the day of any changes in both racing surfaces as any prevailing track bias.