FINAL BIAS REPORT AND HORSES TO WATCH by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

THERE WAS NO BIAS TODAY.

HORSES TO WATCH:

(Race 4) SWEET LEMONADE
(Race 6) MR. BARRACUDA
(Race 10) JUST PLAIN WAYNE
(Race 10) ROCK N' ROLL GAL

RACE TEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

Very game win by 12-1 upset winner SHE'SA TOUGH TIGER who held gamely setting a pressured pace along the rail from the start. JUST PLAIN WAYNE closed well too late, just running out of ground. Good effort by ROCK 'N ROLL GAL who chased throughout and continued on willingly.

*** RACE TEN ANALYSIS *** (OFF THE GRASS) by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 9) SCHEFFLERA Looked like a solid choice against several of these last time but could do no better than a distant 3rd. Another like any of her first three starts would very likely beat these fillies. Willing to give the Asmussen filly another chance. (# 6) SMARTY MARTY Showed nothing in her 3 starts for Pletcher last year but looked sharp for new trainer David Carroll. She stalked the pace and finished well to hold onto the place. Eligible to improve in her 2nd start back from a 6-month layoff. (# 4) JUST PLAIN WAYNE Set a modest pace then settled for 2nd when she could not contain the late closing winner. She had Schefflera behind her in 3rd. That was just her 2nd start and her 1st in three months. Bred to be even better on the main track. Gonzalez to Saez. (# 8) SHE’SA TOUGH TIGER Set a strong pace in her debut then held on tenaciously after being headed early in the drive. Trainer Walter Bindner has positive stats with his 2nd time starters. Tiger Ridge filly should handle the main track if that becomes necessary. (# 11) ROCK 'N' ROLL GAL ran a solid 2nd in debut at 34-1. Certainly must be considered a threat off that effort. (# 3) TRUE BREW ran well in debut on grass. If he she can handle the dirt, she will be dangerous.

RACE NINE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

3-5 favorite CLASSY DEELITES cleared to an easy lead early on. Rated well on the loose reign. Put away the chaser WILLIST at the top of the stretch, then was all out to hold off the fast closing DESERT WHEAT. It was a long way back to the third horse.

*** RACE NINE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 2) CLASSY DEELITES With the exception of longshot Southern Invasion he had all of these behind him in his gate to wire win on Jan. 29. There is no reason to think that he won't control the pace again. Will be hard to catch on turf or dirt. He missed by a neck in a 7F stakes last time but prefers the more leisurely pace of a route. (# 4) HALLWAY Unleashed a devastating rally to beat a strong allowance field on the grass. His time for the final quarter was a rather amazing :22 2/5. That was the most impressive effort of his 25-race career. Could get it done at a square price if Classy Deelites fails to fire his best shot. (# 5) DESERT WHEAT Won the Mr. Sulu on opening weekend when it was moved to the main track. Settled for minor awards against many of these same foes in his three subsequent starts. On his best day he is good enough to win it. This group knows each other well by now. (# 7) SOUTHERN INVASION Is a very consistent 6 year old with good tactical speed. 1 for 1 at today’s distance.

RACE EIGHT OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

5-1 winner MILWAUKEE MIRACLE rolled down the middle of the track to run down pacesetter SILENT PIPE who rated well on a clear lesad. No resistance late to the winner and then was outfinished by longshot BREAK UP for second.

*** FLORIDA DERBY SELECTIONS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

FLORIDA DERBY

Toby The Coal Man - He demonstrated noticeable improvement when the blinkers where removed on January 25 by trainer Nick Zito. More recently, he was the victor of stirring stretch battle at Gulfstream Park on March 5, eking out the win to score by a desperate nose. Obviously, he is ambitiously spotted stepping up into a Grade 1 stakes contest off that showing.

Quality Road - He is undoubtedly one of the “now” horses campaigning along the Triple Crown Trail. Quality Road was ultra-impressive when annexing the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 28 while adding Lasix and switching pilots to John Velazquez. The Jimmy Jerkens trained runner was always well within himself as he stalked lively fractions down the backstretch, subsequently taking the lead upon entering the stretch. He then drew away when asked, finishing powerfully to score by 4 1/4 widening lengths. In the Florida Derby, he will be asked to carry his speed around two turns and stretch-out to nine furlongs. Bred by his owner, Edward P. Evans, a longtime patron of Thoroughbred racing, he appears well-equipped to successfully handle both assignments as he possesses a major tactical edge over his main rivals in a race that lacks quality early pace.

Casey's On Call - Faces a tall order today returning to the main track for a low percentage trainer. Claimed by his current connections for $75,000 on February 19 off a wire-to-wire victory, Casey’s On Call has never won beyond seven furlongs or around two turns. Needless to say, he will have to wait for another day to accomplish either of those aforementioned tasks.

Dunkirk - A $3.7 million-dollar purchase as a yearling in 2007, Dunkirk literally hit the ground running when making his debut on January 24 at Gulfstream. Despite a bit of a slow start and some traffic woes that day, he ran away when clear in the stretch to win by daylight in an auspicious debut effort. Trained by Todd Pletcher, Dunkirk punched his ticket for the Florida Derby with a professional victory in an early level Allowance contest on February 19. After tracking the early pace from the outset, he eventually drew clear when set down for the drive by jockey Garrett Gomez, and was 4 3/4 lengths to the good in a comfortable victory. Today, Dunkirk takes the acid test for class in his sternest test to date. Dunkirk is clearly a runner with potential, and certainly has blossomed within a relatively short period of time. His performance in the Florida Derby will serve as a good barometer to determine whether this million-dollar baby is ready for prime time.

Sincero - With his lone career victory coming at Calder in November, things do not bode well today for Sincero. Despite being equipped with Lasix in his last two starts over this track, Sincero was a well-beaten third to Dunkirk on February 19. Suffice it to say, I prefer others.

Theregoesjojo - A runner of intrigue, Theregoesjojo easily handled probable favorite Quality Road off a prolonged layoff on January 10. Exhibiting not even the slightest sign of rustiness that day, Theregoesjojo rallied strongly in the stretch that day to win going away by nearly three-lengths. Trained by Ken McPeek, Theregoesjojo negotiated his final furlong in roughly 11 4/5 seconds that day as his optimistic connections geared him up for the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth S. in February. Simply put, nobody was beating Quality Road in that race as the winner exacted his revenge over Theregoesjojo. Theregoesjojo was clearly second best in his initial try beyond seven furlongs, closing willing for the place to best the recently-injured Beethoven by four-lengths. Exactly where Theregoesjojo fits in this year’s three-year-old picture in all likelihood will be determined today as he tackles Quality Road in the rubber match.


Stately Character - After breaking his maiden in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes last September at Calder, Stately Character has been on the fringes since. He closed well to finish a close-up second on March 6, but “eye-opening” improvement is necessary to give him even cursory consideration today.

SELECTIONS:

1ST: QUALITY ROAD
2ND: THEREGOESJOJO
3RD: DUNKIRK

UPDATED BIAS THROUGH SEVEN RACES by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

THE PATH OF THE WINDS HAVE CHANGED AND THE TRACK HAS DRIED OUT. I FEEL THE TRACK IS NOW PLAYING FAIR. INSIDE AND OUTSIDE PATHS ARE EQUALLY GOOD.

FRANCISCO TORRES OFF REMAINING MOUNTS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

*** RACE EIGHT ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 2) MR R B I Comes off a solid effort in a 1st tier allowance and is not outgunned in this small stakes. He was in a drive widest through the turn and had to continue to work hard through the stretch to put away the speed. Edged clear at the 1/16th pole then was unable to hold off the late charge of the winner. Developing gelding can score the upset for Al Stall. Can stalk the likely early leader Silent Pipe. (# 9) MILWAUKEE MIRACLE Took to the grass in a big way when he closed from dead last to win the Gentilly. He was attacking a slow pace and was forced to cover the final 5/16 in a blazing :29 flat. That was also his first try around two turns. Can he transfer that abilty to the dirt? (# 12) SILENT PIPE In his first try around two turns this gelding set a fast pace and held a clear lead all the way. Failed to fire on the grass last time but was gaining at the wire. The speed of the field with a chance to take them gate to wire. Lanerie seems sure to gun him for the lead from the extreme outside post. (# 11) SMOOTHCIDECUP Looked home free with a clear late lead in the Gentilly until he was overrun by the flying Milwaukee Brew. Also effective on the main track. As noted earlier, Morris Nicks is among the best with the turf to dirt move. (# 3) LEESTOWN GIFT Will be on or near the lead from the start stretching out to 2 turns for the first time from post 2.

RACE SEVEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

1st time lasix on 5-2 winner SEVEN SEVENTYTHREE who sat in mid pack, swung outside at the top of the stretch and edged clear late over a stubborn MUFFIN who ran well for a clear second. PLEA pulled up lame on the backstretch. Well bet TENSAS PALMYA had nothing late.

FIRST TIME LASIX RACE SEVEN by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 1A) SEVEN SEVENTYTHREE will be adding lasix for the firstn time in her career geeting a trainer change to Asmussen.

*** RACE SEVEN ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 1) PLEA $170,000 Spanish Steps filly has developed nice for Mark Casse and is ready for her first black type. After dropping a nose decision in her 2nd start she took a big step forward in her first try around two turns. She stalked a slow pace then kicked home with a :24 1/5 final quarter. In a field with more early speed the stalker could get a great trip just behind the leaders. Responded well for Bridgmohan who replaced Albarado for her last start. Must beat a fast filly but offers some value at her 9-2 line odds. (# 2) TENSAS PALMYRA After scoring a booming win over maidens she settled for 2nd as the favorite in a turf experiment. That race can be excused as can her debut. Afternoon Deelites filly will he stalking the pace along with Plea. Morris Nicks has always excelled with the turf to dirt move. (# 8) WARRIOR MAID Holy Bull filly tries a route for the first time, a distance that she is bred to handle. She has three wins and a 2nd place finish from her four starts. She rates kindly and has the style for a middle distance. Continues to train well for Larry Jones.

RACE SIX OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 2) MR. BARRACUDA jumped up at the start throwing his rider. 2-1 favorite MR. PORTER sat a perfect trip in mid pack closing late on tiring speed. All out to hold off MYOLDMANSAM who was closing best late. BLUEHARD who I expected on the lead never got it. Forced to chased inside all way. Finished evenly late.

FRONT BANDAGES ON AND POST PARADE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

IDE LIKE A DOUBLE, 4-1 with 5 minutes to go, returns off a layoff with front bandages on which is a negative. (# 2) MR. BARRACUDA looks great in the post parade. On his toes. He is a not impossible to run well at a big price returning to the Fair Grounds.

*** RACE SIX ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 5) MR. PORTER Seemed best when he overcame a wide trip to finish 2nd behind Myoldmansam two starts back. Last time he rated far off the pace then flew home and almost caught the heavily favored Cush. Unlucky 5yo is the choice once again to get it done. Tom Amoss wins at a 34% clip with runners making the 2nd start following a claim. (# 8) IDE LIKE A DOUBLE Won 5 of his 8 starts last year and now makes his first start since August. Has won off layoffs before and trainer Bryon Gilbert knows him well. He enters this contest off a best-of-42 5 furlong breeze a week ago. If he is ready he will be hard to turn back. (# 9) POWER SURGE Rebounded from an uncharacteristically dull effort to finish a close 3rd behind Cush. Several of these finished on virtually even terms in that race. Effective as a presser of as an off the pace closer. Likely to be overlooked at the windows. (# 3) MYOLDMANSAM Beat a strong allowance field that contained rival Mr. Porter two starts back. Last out he settled for 4th against many of these same foes. Top contender once again in a field where they keep beating each other. (# 1) BLUEHARD should move forward in 2nd start off a long layoff. Reunites with Albarado and is the speed on the rail.

BIAS UPDATE THROUGH RACE FIVE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

Upset winner Alphadoodle in race five was the third front running victor on the day whioch also included a 99-1 shot who wired the second race. Right now I would say the track is speed favoring.

RACE FIVE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

9-1 winner ALPHADOODLE found herself with a clear lead leaving the gate after the other mian speed DANCING REBECCA ducked inwards at the break impeding SAX APPEAL. The winner wired the field rascing down along the rail and held gamely despite never changing leads. 4-5 favorite COACH MIKE was off a step slow. Sustained a strong wide rally through the turn and continued very wide in the stretch. Unable to run down the upset winner, but was well clear of SAX APPEAL in fine effort. Sax Appeal took up at the break then quickly moved into perfect striking position. Dead aim along the iside through the stretch, but came up empty late.

POST PARADE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

4-5 favorite COACH MIKE and 5-2 co second choice SAX APPEAL clearly look the best physically warming up in the post parade.

PADDOCK NOTES RACE FIVE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

4-5 favorite COACH MIKE looks the picture of health. Dappled out in hher hind quarters and very calm, all big positives. SAX APPEAL at 5-2 odds with 8 minutes to go appears a bit overbet in a small field. Odds figure to go up a l;ittle post as post time nears.

*** RACE FIVE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 3) SAX APPEAL Won this race last year and has shown improvement in each of her three starts following a long layoff. She settled for 2nd behind Coach Mike in her 2nd start of the season then turned the tables on that rival on the Delta Downs bull ring. Asmussen gives her 8 weeks to reload with six stiff drills since that last start. Figures to offer a square price. (# 6) COACH MIKE 5yo mare won 5 of her 10 starts last year, all of them stakes. She handled Sax Appeal on Champions Day but was beaten at 3-5 by that rival last time at Delta Downs. She needs frequent breaks but Tony Richey always has her ready. She has won 3 of her 4 starts over this course and seems best on a mile track. (# 4) DANCING REBECCA Hard to knock a filly who is undefeated after four starts. She has never been headed, nothing but 1's in her past performances. She is out of conditions and looks like a snug fit here. She will be blazing away on the lead once again. Quite a bargain as a $2000 weanling.

RACE FOUR OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

9-5 second choice MA RAINEY stalked along the inside to the top of the stretch. Rallied between horses in deep stretch to edge clear of the favorite SWEET LEMONADE who stalked DICTINA TOO from the start. Bobbled midway on the turn going up for the lead. Recovered to take command top of the stretch, but was unable to hold off the winner late. DICTINA TOO pulled up lame after trying to fight on in deep stretch.

BIAS AND TRACK CONDITION UPDATE THORUGH THE FIRST THREE RACES by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

MAIN TRACK HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO FAST, BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT IN THE DIRT. THERE IS A STRONG HEAD WIND DOWN THE BACKSTRETCH AND A TAIL WIND IN THE STRETCH WHICH HELPS FRONT RUNNERS. FRONT RUNNING HORSES SCORED IN RACES TWO AND THREE WITH A 99-1 SHOT SCORING IN RACE TWO. I WILL KEEP YOU ABREAST IF I FEEL THAT THERE IS A STRONG SPEED BIAS, BUT AT THIS POINT I FEEL IT IS NOT YET DEFINATIVE.

*** RACE FOUR ANALYSIS *** (OFF THE GRASS) by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 4) SWEET LEMONADE Lemon Drop Kid filly blossomed after being switched from Pletcher to Calhoun after her first two starts. She comes off a powerful win over a 1st tier allowance field in a turf sprint. In those first two starts she showed the ability to handle a middle distance as well as poly. Think she will be just as effective at a middle distance. Should be able to handle dirt and especially the stretch out in distance. (# 7) FLAMING SLEW Showed enough promise as a 3yo to be tried in the prestigious CCA Oaks. She comes off two solid efforts under these conditions. Last out she roared home from the back of the pack with a final quarter in :22.4 when finishing a close 3rd to Tizaqueena. That rival came back to win a stakes in her next start. The 2nd place finisher won her next start as well. (# 3) MA RAINEY is no doubt a very dangerous rival in here. Freshened up off the Autrey claim. This trainer very strong with new purchases. He is also having a strong meet. Solid win last out going grass to dirt. Gets barns main go to rider.

RACE THREE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

2-1 favorite LUCKY ALEC jumped right out to the lead and wired the field as much the best. 50-1 shot CAJUN LEGEND just outfinished OKIE OKIE for second after that one was unable to change leads in the stretch. The rest of the field showed little.

RACE THREE EXPLANATION OF SELECTIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

NOTE: THIS RACE WAS TAKEN OFF THE GRASS. SELECTIONS GIVEN OUT WERE BASED ON THE CHANGE OF RACING SURFACES EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A REFERANCE IN THE WRITING ABOUT GRASS.

LATE JOCKEY CHANGE RACE THREE by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

WITH 4 MINUTES TO GO, (# 3) OKIE OKIE HAS RETURNED TO THE PADDOCK FOR A RIDER CHANGE. LOW % RIDER MARTIN BROWN WILL REPLACE BOURQUE

*** RACE THREE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

( #8) ELLE RAY DEW Took a lot of betting action then chased a fast pace before tiring in the lane going a mile on dirt. That was a race he likely needed following a 10-week break. 4yo gelding was hung wide on the first turn and the fractions were quite fast for that level. This time he cuts back in distance while dropping into a weak maiden claimer. Handled the grass well in his previous start going a longer distance. Theriot has won 3 out of 9 for Eric Guillot. (# 11) LUCKY ALEC Had worked brilliantly prior to his debut in which he tired in the slop. He looked better in his 2nd start, an even 3rd place finish against a soft Delta Downs MSW field. Bred for dirt, but so are most of the other Bayou-breds. Switch to Albarado makes him a top contender (# 12) T Z TOP Once had some speed but has been coming from off the pace in all of his recent races. He finished a very decent 3rd over the turf course two starts back. Contender in this weak field despite appearing to be more of a follower than a leader. Tries a rider switch from Donnie Meche to Gonzalez. (# 9) EXPLOSIVE PIPE Previously a mid-pack presser, he was gunned to the lead last time going 7 1/2F on turf. He lead for more than 5F before weakening. Would like him a whole lot better with a stronger rider. Bonnet. (# 6) DR. CUTRONG Makes first start off the claim for Journet who scored with a longshot off a similar move this meet. Takes a confident boost in class adding lasix for the first time.

BOMBS AWAY RACE TWO by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

99-1 upset winner HIGH KICKING DREAM set a pressured pace throughout. Drifted in and out through the stretch but was clear of WAH MEI who had every chance to go by but could not. Another 99-1 shot PEGGY SUS PATH held on for third for a monumental trifecta and superfecta. This was clearly an impossible result to predict over what appears to be a very quirkydrying out surface today.

ADDITIONAL CONTENDER RACE TWO by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 4) LOOKING DUBAI looked very good on the track. Ok third in debut and has since been freshened for this. Shows 4 works since her debut and Albarado back aboard.

*** RACE TWO ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 12) SWEET MIS KITTY Raced evenly in her first start of the season then was given a stamina-building trip around two turns. She set a slow but pressured pace before tiring in the final furlong of a turf miler. She has dirt brreeding and seems to have been pointed for this spot. David Banks wins at a 29% clip with the "route race as prep" move and 25% with the drop from MSW to maiden claiming. (# 5) RIVIERA CAFÉ Comes off two sharp efforts against maiden special company on the grass. She showed more speed last time when she pressed the pace into the final quarter behind the undefeated filly She's Yummy. Daughter of Orientate is bred to handle the main track and has trained fast over it. She is also bred to relish a wet track. (# 6) JUNIOR’S ACES Drops into maiden claiming company after showing sharp early speed in two tries at the MSW level. One was on poly and the other on turf. The $200,000 Boundary filly is bred to do her best running on the main track. Trainer Eric Guillot is doing well following a slow start. (# 10) WAH MEI In her only dirt sprint she closed from the back of the pack to finish 2nd in a key race field. The winner and 3rd place finisher both came back to win impressively. Raced evenly after bobbling at the break going a mile last time. Will be picking up the pieces. (# 1) SUPER INDEED Dangerous speed from the rail and a drop into a maiden claimer for the 1st time. Main problem is that she faces pressure to her outside.

RACE ONE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

10-1 upset winner, 1st timer PERTINENT rallied from well back widest in the stretch. Proved how weak this field was. DELWOOD chased on the rail all the way. All out to gain second. 3-1 COSTNER showed nothing. 8-5 favorite ETERNAL PURSUIT stalked bad speed. Unable to go by at the top of the stretch, then faded in the late stages. No excuse.

*** RACE ONE ANALYSIS *** by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

(# 1) COSTNER Made a wide move into contention on the turn then sustained his rally through a fast final quarter to finish a clear 2nd in a strung out field. Closer was hurt by the slow pace but figures to get faster fractions to rally into this time. Class drop makes him the one to beat at a square price. Only negative is his 3rd start in 21 days. (# 7) ETERNAL PURSUIT Likely favorite double-drops in class following a sharp effort against $50,000 maidens. He set a pressured pace into deep stretch before tiring. He is once again the speed of the field and will probably shake loose on the lead. He has tired badly in the lane in each of his last two. (# 3) DELWOOD Won a stiff pace duel, opened a daylight lead in mid-stretch but was unable to hold it. Had been tried twice on the grass but seems better on dirt. Asmussen has him on an improving pattern and three drills since his last start is a plus. Figures to stalk Eternal Pursuit. (# 6) MARKET MOVER Looked much better when dropped to this level last time. He stalked early, challenged with a 3-wide middle move then weakened gradually down the lane. $150,000 son of Mineshaft has been a disappointment but can compete with these.

TRACK CONDITIONS AS OF 12:45 pm (EST) by The Wizard on Saturday, March 28, 2009

MAIN TRACK IS GOOD. ALL GRASS RACES HAVE BEEN TAKEN OFF AND SWITCHED TO THE MAIN TRACK.