RACE TWELVE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(1) LUSTER - Despite a very gray day, she really shined brightly, making every pole a winning one as the odds-on favoritre. She showed what she can do on when on the front end, quickly getting to the lead and then widening her advantage at every call. A horse with a future, she easily demolished an overmatched field today. (7) HOCHIS PONCHIS closed well to get the place. while backing sprinting over a conventional dirt surface. (2) GIRLS IMAGE - returning from a prolonged layoff, ran third in a useful effort with blinkers off in her first race for new trainer Tom Amoss. She might be best suited to a shorter distance and a drier track going forward.

PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS (Race Thirteen) by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 1) MR. RUFF does not have lasix today. (# 8) BOYHOOD DREAM had a poor appearance. 1st timer DELTA EMPERATOR wears blinkers for debut. (# 15) SOLDERO adds front bandages for the 1st time.

KENTUCKY DERBY OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(8) MINE THAT BIRD - Hindsight as you know, is 20/20. But, I think you need to have sharper vision than that to tab this horse as the Derby winner. Nevertheless, he is the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner, coming from dead-last to emerge victorious in an absolute shocker. His devastating closing rally would have made 2007 Kentucky Derby hero Street Sense proud, saving every bit of ground down the backstretch and around the far turn. Eventually, Borel put him on the rail once again after turning into the stretch, bursting through a narrow opening like a wild horse to engage (16) Pioneerof The Nile in midstretch for command. Once he switched leads, it was a done deal, as Mine That Bird literally sprouted wings to distance himself from the field and proceeded to carve out his niche into racing history. (16) Pioneerof The Nile raced outside runners and within striking distance of the lead down the backstretch, moved in earnest to engage the leaders in early stretch, gained a brief, but tenuous lead, and then was powerless to match strides with the winner while holding well enough to save the place. (2) MUSKET MAN - Moved to the extreme outside for his bid racing around the far turn, continued to be widest of all while closing steadily in deep stretch, and just missed the place by a nose. In all likelihood, he probably would have been second with a better trip. (7) PAPA CLEM - Moved in tandem with the Musket Man in the stretch, and continued on willingly to get fourth money in a surprisingly good effort, despite his pre-race antics in the post parade. (6) FRIESAN FIRE and (15) DUNKIRK made little impact in this race and simply did not bring their ‘A’ game to Churchill Downs, as did many others.

RACE TEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(6) EINSTEIN - Sat a perfect trip behind the early leaders down the backstretch, angled outside of runners around the far turn, continued to improve his position into the stretch, and then proved best in a hard-fought a victory. (8) COWBOY CAL - Never far back while outside of runners, moved in tandem with Einstein while just off that runner on the turn and into the stretch, continued his stretch-long battle with the winner to drop a tough decision. (4) COURT VISION - Made up ground and loomed a dangerous presence in the stretch, but was unable to sustain his bid and settled for third. (3) PROUDINSKY - Sat a perfect ground-saving trip, continued along the inside around the far turn and into the stretch, moved to challenge for the lead and weakened under pressure thereafter.

PRESS CONFERANCE IN A FEW MINUTES by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

I have a birdseye view from my desk to hear the press conferance of the connections of Mind That Bird. I am interested to listen to the trainer, owner and rider Borel. It just shows you, that anything in life is possible, if you believe. They serve good meals at the auxillary press box. Hope they have some New Mexico Beer shipped in for the occasion. I can certainly use a nice cold one. I will tell you anything I hear that is worth passing on. A colorful story, from colorful people.

CALVIN BOREL STUNNER by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

All I can say is my hats off to Calvin Borel and the connections of Mine That Brid, who crushed the field, with an "eye opening" closing rally from dead last up the rail. He is not even a three year old until May 10th. Borel has now won two Derby's, with Street Sense and this colt, as well as yesterday's Kentucky Oaks. A fairy tale ending over the slop at Churchill Downs. Lets tip our hats to the Cowboys, who took Mine That Bird, in back of a van, driving 21 hours, from Sunland Park in New Mexico. Let the fiesta begin!

BACK IN MY SEAT by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Friesan Fire looked best of them all. Dunkirk is a big long grey horse, who if he handles the wet going, should be able to close well in the stretch. Pioneerof the Nile was also nice and relaxed. All the others looked just fine except a couple of horse who were fractious. If you have an opinion, just bet it, because these were very well behaved three year olds.

Friesan Fire and Chocolate Candy Look Best Leaving Paddock by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

#6 Friesan Fire and #11 Chocolate Candy looked the best leaving the paddock and heading out onto the track.

Quick Update by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

#1 is good nice and relaxed
#2 is nice and relaxed
#3 is nice and relaxed
#4 is a little fractious
#5 is nice
#6 looks great nice and relaxed (perfect)
#7 looks ok
#8 looks ok
#9 looks ok
#10 looks ok
#11 looks excellent
#12 looks good
#14 looks good
#15 looks good
#16 looks good
#17 fractious
#18 OK
#19 looks good
#20 looks good

All horses behaving well... by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

All horses so far behaving well. Nobody acting up.

Friesan Fire by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Friesan Fire - Extremely relaxed with a beautiful coat. In his stall. Still hasn't come out (15MTP). Not even moving a hair. Just what you want to see with a horse going 1 1/4 miles.

More horse observations.. by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Chocolate Candy Excellent appearance

Join in the Dance Excellent appearance

General Quarters Nice and relaxed

Behavior.. by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

All horses behaving calmly/well so far (19 MTP)

Chocolate Candy by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Chocolate Candy looks great.

Hold Me Back - Looks excellent

First glimpse of Pioneerof the Nile... by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Pioneerof the Nile Looks really good. Shiny coat. Nice and relaxed

Dunkirk relaxing... by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Dunkirk getting more relaxed as time winds down in paddock.

Papa Clem, Atomic, Rain, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Mr. Hot Stuff and Papa Clem Look OK.

Chocolate Candy Looks Excellent.

Atomic Rain OK.

Advice Looks OK.

Friesan Fire... by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Friesan Fire looks good.

Shiek Mohammed in Stall by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

..with Regal Ransom.

Hold Me Back, Join in the Dance, by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

#5 Hold Me Back - Just OK

#9 Join in the Dance - Good Appearance

Dunkirk, Regal Ransom, Desert Party... by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Dunkirk - Good appearance. Looking around at the crowd

#10 Regal Ransom - OK appearance

#19 Desert Party - Just OK

#18 Nowhere to Hide - Fair appearance

#12 General Quarters - Just OK

#1 West Side Bernie by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

West Side Bernie - Very good appearance.

Horses Are Entering the Paddock - Musket Man by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

#2 Musket Man - Looks good (appearance). First one in the paddock

42 MTP - Horses Have Not Yet Entered Paddock by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

With 42 MTP no horses have entered the paddock.

Horses Circling on Track by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Horses on on Main Track walking in a circle. Waiting for them to arrive in paddock.

FINAL TRACK CONDITIONS FOR DERBY 135 by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Main track for the Derby will be SLOPPY.

STARS IN THE PADDOCK by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Michael Phelps is in the paddock (crowded by a throng of women) Was it 8 Gold Medals he won in China?

PICK 6 WILL PAYS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

6 Friesan Fire: $29103
15 Dunkirk: $30230
16 Pioneerof the Nile: $37773

Huge payoffs on the rest.

EXOTIC WAGERS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Pick 3's, Pick 4's the top three choices are clearly (Friesan Fire, Pioneerof the Nile and Dunkirk) the favorites. No one even remotely close.

UPDATED ODDS (64 MTP) by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

With 64MTP Friesan Fire is the 7-2 favorite and Pioneerof the Nile and Dunkirk are co-second choices at 6-1. The rest of the board is well spread out.

Friesan Fire by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

The question is whether he can run 1 1/4 miles off a long layoff and having never run beyond 1 1/16 miles. Proved in La. Derby that he relished the wet going. Churchill slop is a lot different. If anyone could accomplish the task of winning The Derby, Larry Jones can.

Dunkirk by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

I spent time alone with trainer Todd Pletcher on Monday and he told me that Dunkirk has not missed a beat or an oat since January. The main question he must answer is if he can handle the big crowds b/c of his possible lack of seasoning and can he handle the Churchill wet surface.

Pioneerof the Nile by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

This week I have had the pleasure of spending time with Ahmad Zayatt owner of Pioneerof the Nile. I find him a very interesting and knowledgeable man. He is quietly confident that Pioneerof the Nile will run a big race. He must answer the question if he can handle dirt and a wet track.

UPDATED WEATHER REPORT by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

With 79 MTP Getting colder. Very cloudy and the track should be SLOPPY for Derby. Track currently listed as SLOPPY and probably will be for post time.

Paddock Report #1 by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

In paddock, first one here. Stay tuned....

UPDATED TRACK CONDITION by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Main track continues to be sloppy.

PADDOCK NOTES RACE TEN by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

All horses looked great in the paddock. But, (6) EINSTEIN made an absolutely spectacular appearance

RACE NINE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(3) INFORMED DECISION - Settled nicely behind hot fractions while relaxed near the inside, continued to rate behind the leaders heading into the far turn. She was out-moved while full run and nowhere to go, moving outside and then finally inside by Leparoux when finally in clear, settling suddenly in the final 1/16 of a mile to win going away. (6) TEMPLE STREET - Was dead last turning for home, angled out widest for her rally, continued to race well-out in the middle of the track while improving her position, and then closed with a flourish late to get the place. (2) DUBAI MAJESTY - Outsprinted the field to get the lead, held that an advantage into the stretch, raced erratically while weaving past midstretch and then tired in inside the final 70yds but managed to deadheat for the show. (8) MODIFICATION - She was angled very wide turning home for a stretch bid, continued to make up ground while well out in the track, and then closed with interest to finish on even terms for third. (9) GAME FACE - Moved three-wide to commence her bid around the far turn, darted to inside shortly after entering the stretch and then lacked a late response. (5) SECRET GYPSY - Chased the fast early pace two-wide until the far turn and then gave way badly.

THE CROWD AND THE SHEIKH by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

From my vantage point, I don't feel how crowded it is, but when I get to the paddock it's flooded with people. Fans are at least five deep along the rail to get a glimpse of the horses. His highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai, is here. (He owns Regal Ransom and Desert Party). I heard he will be interviewd on ESPN. Maybe I will be standing next to him. If so, I will ask him for a loan or free heating oil for next winter. You can feel the excitement in the air.

UPDATED BIAS THROUGH NINE RACES by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

THE TRACK BIAS IS BEGINING TO EVEN OUT A BIT. LONGSHOT LEADER DUBAI MAJESTY SET THE PACE AND TIRED LATE SETTING UP THE CLOSERS WHO RAN 1-2. I STILL SAY SPEED IS GOOD, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE RACES PROGRESS. THERE IS NO BIAS IN ROUTES.

UPDATED WEATHER AND TRACK CONDITIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

STILL VERY COOL WITH CLOUD COVER. TRACK MAY EVEN BE VERY WET FOR THE DERBY. THEY SHOULD BE HARROWING THE TRACK BETWEEN RACES 10 AND 11. THIS WILL TAKE SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THE SURFACE THAT HAS SEEPED DEEP INTO THE DIRT, BUT WHEN THE GATES OPEN, THE FIELD WILL BE RACING OVER A WET TRACK. HOW WET? HARD TO PINPOINT EXACTLY RIGHT NOW. BUT I WILL KNOW BY 5:30. STAY TUNED.

HORSE ON HIS TOES WARMING UP ON TRACK by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(4) BEAR NOW - really on his toes in the post parade!

PADDOCK NOTES RACE NINE AND BEND SHOES by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

All nine horses look fantastic! BEND SHOES ON 5-8-9

UPDATED WEATHER FORECAST by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

WEATHER HAS NOT CHANGED. WE ARE GOING INTO RACE NINE, AND THE TRACK IS STILL SLOPPY AND THE GRASS IS SOFT. I AM BEGINNING TO THINK THAT THE TRACK COULD BE BETWEEN SLOPPY AND GOOD FOR THE DERBY. NO SUN, AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES WHICH WILL PREVENT IT FROM DRYING OUT VERY MUCH.

*** UPDATED DERBY ODDS AS OF 3:30 PM *** by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

FRIESAN FIRE IS THE 7-2 FAVORITE, DUNKIRK AND PIONEEROF THE NILE ARE BOTH 6-1. THE REST OF THE FIELD IS WELL SPREAD OUT IN THE BETTING.

RACE EIGHT OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(3) TIZAQUEENA - Disputed the lead from the inside under rating, continued to battle for the lead while on the rail into the stretch, dug in gamely while battling for the command and then simply refused to yield the lead in a gritty performance. (11) DAWN AFTER DAWN - Raced outside while in the second flight runners, moved closer to leaders upon entering the stretch, continued on willingly to the finish, but could not overhaul the winner. (1) LEMON CHIFFON - Was outrun while settling along the inside down the backstretch, cut the corner turning into the stretch, but could not quicken when called upon. (8) STEALIN' KISSES - Made a menacing move around the far turn to join the leaders, but then weakened under pressure. (2) VISIT - Raced towards the rear early on while rank, fought her rider down the backstretch while a bit headstrong, raced wide around the turn, and when finally set down in the stretch, came up empty. (9) ELUSIVE LADY - Launched a strong bid towards the inside in early stretch but had nothing left shortly thereafter.

GRASS BIAS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

THERE IS NO BIAS ON THE GRASS AFTER TWO RACES

MY PADDOCK STRATEGY FOR THE KENTUCKY DERBY by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

I am going to shoot right out to the paddock for the Derby as soon as race ten is official. There is at least 40 minutes which I will be able to go to all 19 stalls and observe each horses behaviour. I will be using my cell phone to communicate my observations, and they will be sent to you in rapid fire succession. Anything I see which is important, you will know. I feel paddock inspection for the Derby, is huge! These three year old will face crowds and noise like they have never seen or heard before. Some could freak out and leave their race right there, and some will remain cool and calm which is very important. Tune in.

PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS (Race Eight) by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

All horses looked very good.

SLIGHT PROBLEM CORRECTED by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

For some reason my race seven observations went up three times. I have deleated two of them. Should be correct now.

RACE SEVEN OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(4) FOUR GIFTS - Stalked the pace while saving ground down the backstretch, angled off the inside around the turn, had to change lanes while in the midst of her rally in the stretch, and responded readily when afforded clear sailing and then drew away. (1) JUST JENDA - She was angled off the rail shortly after the start, showed a quick burst of speed between rivals to get striking position down the backstretch. Moved in earnest to vie for command in the stretch, seized the lead but could not match strides with the winner late. (5) WARRIOR MAID - She was outrun early, and finished with interest to pass tired horses late. (8) LADY'S LAUGHTER - Broke well but was taken back to stalk the pace two-wide, eventually gained the lead around turn, lacked a sufficient response when headed in early stretch and steadily tired therafter. (10) AUSPICIOUS - Set the pace until the far turn under rating, and then readily relinquished the lead in the vicinity of the far turn.

UPDATED TRACK CONDITIONS AND BIAS REPORT by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Track still SLOPPY, grass is SOFT, not "good" as they are posting. I have now made a split track bias. Strong speed favoring track in sprints. In routes it is now an honest track. Fields are spread out, but you can rally from a bit off the pace. Deep closers are at a big disadvantage, especially in sprints. There is no path bias, but riders are avoiding the rail. When the Derby comes, there is no way it will be listed FAST. GOOD at best.

BEND SHOES RACE SEVEN by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, bends behind for more traction in the slop.

*** LATE SCRATCH RACE 10 *** by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 1) ARTISTE ROYAL is a late scratch in race 10

PADDOCK NOTES RACE SEVEN by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Everyone look good, but the (3) C. S. SILK looked exceptional

BETTING ACTION RACE SEVEN by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 1) JUST JENDA at 8-5 with 24 minutes to go, is the clear favorite in all pools. The rest are 4-1 and higher.

RACE SIX OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(6) ACCREDIT - Came out of the gate extremely well to set a modest pace under a snug hold, maintained an easy lead while never asked for his best, kicked into overdrive once set down by Leparoux in the stretch, and then preserved a safe lead to the wire. (1) MY PAL CHARLIE - Outrun early along the rail, got off the inside while rallying around the far turn, dove back to the inside in upper stretch, and was making up ground late on the winner. (2) THE ROUNDHOUSE - Raced without early speed while far back, launched his bid when maneuvered outside horses around the far turn, sustained that bid while losing ground upon entering the stretch, and then closed widest and probably best of all in the stretch to get the show. (9) SOK SOK - Was relegated to a wide trip off a less-than-energetic pace, remained outside of runners while trying to reduce his deficit in the stretch, and was one-paced late. (3) KODIAK KOWBOY - trailed early, then moved to the outside of horses down the backstretch behind modest fractions. He continued to race wide throughout, losing valuable ground and never made an impact in a dull effort as he merely spun his wheels over the sloppy track.

BIG SPEED BIAS THROUGH SIX RACES by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

THERE IS AN INTENSE SPEED BIAS TODAY. THROUGH SIX RACES, ONLY 1 HORSE WON FROM OFF THE PACE, BUT THAT WAS DUE TO A A SPEED HORSE WHO FIGURED TO STOP. VERY DIFFICULT TO PLAY HORSES WHO MUST RALLY FROM OFF THE PACE AST THIS POINT.

BEND SHOES by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Bend shoes on # 1, # 2 # 3 # 6 and # 9

BETTING ACTION RACE SIX by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 3) KODIAK COWBOY, is the solid 8-5 favorite. The rest are 9-2 and higher.

PADDOCK NOTES RACE SIX by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(3) KODIAK KOWBOY - Looked alert and ready. (6) ACCREDIT - appeared to be in good health as well.

*** UPDATED WEATHER REPORT by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

STILL OVERCAST AND COOL. NO RAIN AROUBD RIGHT NOW, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE. THERE IS NO WAY THIS TRACK WILL DRY OUT COMPLETLY BY POST TIME OF THE DERBY BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN NO SUN. TRACK STILL LISTED AS SLOPPY

RACE FIVE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(11) JAZZ IN THE PARK - With the pace from the start, raced wide into the stretch, finished well while on the extreme outside and wore down the leaders in the final yards. (2) DESERT WHEAT - Badly outrun, closed from far back to loom a danger in the stretch and finished well for the place PICK SIX - Well off the pace, closed gamely between runners in the stretch and was outfinished between in final yards while getting the show. (1) WHY TONTO - set a slow, but pressured pace along the inside, held well until midstretch, and then tired to finish fourth without any real excuse. (8) GENTLEMAN CHESTER - Stalked the slow fractions set by Why Tonto, continued on well into the stretch but weakened under pressure.

RED HOT JOCKEY by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Calvin Borel, who rode Rachel Alexandra to a monster victory in Friday's Kentucky Oaks, has ridden two winner on today's card. He is clearly in a zone.

TURF COURSE CONDITION by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

They are labeling this turf course "Good". I would call it "YIELDING". The horses kicked up clods of grass on the clubhouse turn and the backstretch.

*** PICK 6 *** by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

The Pick 6 begins in race 6. There will be plenty of money in the pool, especially with the $130,000 + carryover from Friday.

PADDOCK NOTES RACE FIVE by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(1) WHY TONTO - Gave an outstanding appearance in the saddling area. Everyone else look good except for (13) LEADING ON, who looked terrible. (5) HYRACOTHERIUM is a late scratch.

LATE SCRATCH RACE FIVE by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 5) HYRACOTHERIUM is a late scratch in race five

BETTING ACTION RACE FIVE by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 1) WHY TONTO and (# 7) PICK 6 are both the 5-2 favorites and are also the choices in the Pick 3's and the rolling double. The Turf is listed as "GOOD".

RACE FOUR OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(3) GLENWOOD CANYON - Reserved off the early pace, angled off the inside around the far turn, made a strong bid for the lead in stretch and then proved best late while drawing clear. (1) NORTHERN PRINCE - Alternated on the lead from the inside from the start, held well while disputing for the lead into the stretch, but ultimately was no match for the winner while clearly second best. (2) A. U. MINER - Badly outrun early, improved his position while outside of runners around the far turn, but had no punch in the stretch. (6) BROTHER KEITH - Hopped into the air at the break. Raced widest around the clubhouse turn, continued wide down backstretch and then proceeded to move inside and outlast the others. (5) ZIEGFELD - Raced within striking distance of the lead down the backstretch, raced forwardly until the far turn and then steadily dropped back.

BIAS AND WEATHER REPORT by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

It is overcast, but no more rain so far. The track maintainence crew will start harrowing the track within the next couple of races. They can squeeze water out of the surface. It is still very early for the track to dry out, but if they upgrade the track to FAST when the Derby rolls around, there will still be plenty of moisture to it. Through four races, the track is speed favoring. Two front running winners in the first two races. The speed collapsed in race three, which it figured to do anyway, setting up an off the pace runner who loved the footing. Race four was won by a stalker in second who wore down the inside speed. Both were well clear of the rest.

BEND SHOES by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 6) BROTHER KIETH is wearing bend shoes behind

PADDOCK NOTES RACE FOUR by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

No negatives to report on in my paddock inspection. In fact, they all looked good!

RACE THREE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(5) LUV GOV - Moved up along the inside down the backstretch, and continued to save ground around the far turn. He was then angled to the outside for a stretch bid, collared the leader past midstretch and then drove clear. (7) GOLD BREW - Improved his position approaching the far turn, easily disposed of the frontrunner in upper to gain a daylight lead, but could not repel the winner’s late bid. (9) BIG FLIRT - Gained ground around the far turn, was maneuvered to the inside for a stretch bid, and lacked the necessary late response while managing to hold on to the show. (6) Prospective Love - Outrun early on, lost valuable ground while attempting to around the far turn and into the stretch, was one-paced late and finished fourth. (2) EAGLE POISE - hesitated at the start, and then was bumped shortly thereafter. He raced at the back-of-the-pack and never made his presence felt. (8) Gold Schleiger - Carved out all the pace until early stretch, and then succumbed badly once displaced on the front end.

PADDOCK NOTES RACE THREE by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(2) EAGLE POISE - Bends behind, (7) GOLD BREW - Looked exceptional being saddled. Has bends behind. (8) GOLD SCHLEIGER - Bends Behind. (11) TIGER TRACKS - Very fractious and unsettled.

RACE TWO OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(4) RILEY TUCKER - Was immediately sent to the lead and carved out a very comfortable pace. He was under a rating hold by Gomez while well within himself, and drew spurted away from the field to win by a huge daylight. *** Two races thus, two wire-to-wire winners by huge margins. *** (3) HEAVENLY CHORUS - Stalked the winner’s pace from the outset, continued on well into the stretch, but was unable to quicken when called, holding on well to save the place. (7) MAJOR PLEASURE made a ground along the rail in stretch, closing belatedly to take down the show. The rest of the field appeared to race without incident.

TRACK CONDITIONS AND BIAS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

MAIN TRACK CONTINUES TO BE SLOPPY. WINNERS IN RACES 1-2 RACED ON THE LEAD FROM THE START.

BEND SHOES RACE TWO by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 2) and (# 3) Both wearing bend shoes behind

PADDOCK NOTES RACE TWO by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(1) IZANAGI - Made a nice appearance, as did (4) RILEY TUCKER. (6) INDIAN SILVER looked exceptional in the paddock.

LATE RIDER CHANGE IN RACE THREE by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 9) BIG FLIRT gets a rider change to Ramon Dominguez

RACE ONE OBSERVATIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(3) RAPOSA - Broke alertly to set a fast early pace from just off the inside, was nicely handled on the front end by Borel, responding nicely once set down in the stretch and then ran clear to win by daylight. (1) MOTHER RUTH - Raced bottled up towards the inside down the backstretch, was maneuvered of the inside for a bid around the far turn, continued on willingly in the stretch but was no match for the winner. (4) AWESOME GRANNIE - Was well back early on in the second flight of runners down the backstretch, made up ground in the stretch and was never a serious threat. (5) BRITANNIA ROSE - Raced two-wide disputing the pace until early stretch, and then weakened noticeably under pressure in the final furlong. (8) SECRET HUMOR - flashed speed while racing outside, gave ground approaching the far turn and lacked a response in the stretch. (2) LANGILA and (7) FAITH IN ME broke awkwardly and never got involved.

RACE ONE BETTING ACTION by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 8) 1st timer Secret Humor continues to take money. Dropped to 3-1 with 3 minutes to go.

*** UPDATED WEATHER REPORT (10:30) *** by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Weather has improved considerably. It's nice and cool, and the sun is trying to break through. Hopefully the rain will hold off.

"" LIVE FIRST TIMER *** by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(8) SECRET HUMOR - Appears to be a live firster from trainer Ronny Werner. She currently stands at 7-2 odds, bet down from a morning line of 8-1.

PADDOCK NOTES RACE ONE by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Race 1 Paddock

(1) MOTHER RUTH - Made a good impression while being saddled. (2) LANGILA - Disappointing appearance in paddock, very dull coat. Had fronts on as well. (4) AWESOME GRANNIE - Very fractious in saddling area. (8) SECRET HUMOR - Will race with bends behind in debut.

LATE JOCKEY CHANGE RACE ONE by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

(# 5) BRITANNIA ROSE gets a rider change from Trujillo to John Velazquez.

RACE ONE BETTING ACTION by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

With 40 minutes to go in race # 1, first time starter (# 8) SECRET HUMOR opened up at 8-5 and has drifted up to 4-1. She is the second choice in the wagering. The favorite (# 1) MOTHER RUTH, just got hit to 4-5 (odds on) from 7-5. She will clearly be a huge favorite at post time.

POSTS I AM MAKING by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

If you are just tuning into "livewiththewizard", it is important you scroll down and read all the nposts i have made from the beginning of the morning. This will give you insights to what has been going on since 6:30 this morning.

BEND SHOES AND MUD CAULKS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Because the track is sloppy, some horses will be equipped with mud caulks and or bend shoes. These are added to give horses a bit more traction over the surface. I will do everything I can to provide you with this information.

WHAT THE INJURY TO I WANT REVENGE IS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

TRAINER JEFF MULLINS HAS JUST SAID THAT THERE WAS A SLIGHT INJURY TO THE LEFT FRONT ANKLE AND IT WAS INFLAMMED. HE JOGGED A LITTLE BIT, BUT WAS A BIT SORE. NOTHING SERIOUS. THE X RAYS AND THE ULTRA-SOUND WERE NORMAL, BUT THE CONNECTIONS FELT THEY HAD TO SCRATCH FOR THE SAFTEY OF THE HORSE. I COMMEND THEM BIG TIME!!! THEY WERE VERY HUMBLE, AND HAD NO DEBATE, WITH THE VETS AND THE TRAINER ABOUT NOT RUNNING.

\UPDATED TRACK CONDITIONS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

THE MAIN TRACK HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO "SLOPPY"

THE SHEIKH MAY BE ARRIVING FROM DUBAI by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

I heard that Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum and his wife, the ruler of Dubai, have flown in to Kentucky to watch his two horses, Desert Party and Regal Ransom, both owned by his stable Godolphin. The Sheikh rarely comes to the US to watch his horses or visit his huge farms. I know winning the Derby is his ultimate goal. The security around this place is UNBELIEVABLE!!!!

*** LATE SCRATCH IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY *** by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

I WANT REVENGE, WHO FIGURED TO BE FIRST OR SECOND CHOICE IN THE WAGERING, IS A LATE SCRATCH!!

*** LATE SCRATCHES *** by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Track Conditions: Current Turf-GOOD - Lane 1, on the hedge, Dirt-GOOD

Race 5

(9) HOLD THE SALT
(10) EBBTIDE
(12) STRATHAM

Race 7

(9) LARAGH

Race 8

(6) SUGAR MINT

Race 11

(13) I WANT REVENGE

Race 12

(6) GOLD N ESKIMO

Race 13

(2) AMBERGRIS CAYE
(13) VICTORY NOTION
(14) CALIMONCO
(16) RELVADO
(17) CITIZENS BRIGADE

FLOOD OF MEDIA by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

THERE IS A FLOOD OF CAMERAS AND MEDIA FROM ALL AROUND THE WORLD HUDDLED BY MY DESK AS ALL THE CONNECTIONS OF I WANT REVENGE WILL DISCUSS A POSSIBLE INJURY OR ILLNESS HE GOT THIS MORNING. HE FIGURED TO BE THE FAVORITE OR SECOND CHOICE IN THE WAGERING. A MONUMENTAL SCRATCH IN THE KENTUCKY DERBY! I HAVE THE BEST SEAT IN THE HOUSE TO HEAR WHAT THEY HAVE. WHAT A SHAME. I FEEL FOR ALL THOSE INVOLVED.

**** LATE BREAKING NEWS **** by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

*** I WANT REVENGE IS A LATE SCRATCH AS OF 8:30. ***

THE PRESS IS RIGHT BY MY DESK SO I WILL BE ABLE TO HEAR WHAT TRAINER JEFF MULLINS, SAYS SO I CAN REPORT IT TO YOU.

SCROLL DOWN (It's important) by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

It is important that you scroll down to see what I have written, as I will be making continuous posts throughout the day. You don't want to miss anything I write, as it is a steady flow of each race.

KENTUCKY DERBY INTRODUCTION by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

Experience in life usually counts for something. And I suppose it should. All of us, at one time or another, have strived to attain that so-called ‘dream job’, only to be passed over because we did not have the required ‘experience’.

Not so much with the Run for the Roses on Saturday, May 2, when twenty applicants will apply for their ‘dream job’ of sorts as they hope to be crowned the 2009 Kentucky Derby winner. Experience? None required. All you need to be is three-years-of-age, and boast enough graded stakes earning to get to a stall in the starting gate for the final interview. Sure, they all have varying degrees of accomplishments on their resumes. But, none of their previous successes insure that they are capable of carrying out the task at hand. This is a difficult job you see even though it only last for about two minutes, and many of these applicants will be found wanting.

Even the job of paring down the list of candidates to a workable number is a job. In previous years it was at least more easily attainable but has now become a monumental task. There was a time when guidelines could be used by looking to the major prep races such as the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial and the Blue Grass Stakes for probable winners because those races were fertile ground for producing past Derby winners. That is no longer the case as two of the last three winners of the Run for the Roses made their last start in the Florida Derby.
Many handicappers prefer to simply look at the ‘black and white’ the past performance lines of each runner, painfully forgetting, sometimes to their detriment the ‘human factor’ involved. This area of searching out winners has changed as well. Household trainer names such as Wayne Lukas, Nick Zito and Bob Baffert are no longer the dominant force that they once were. In fact, last year, Richard Dutrow Jr. gained immediate notoriety by saddling Big Brown to emerge victorious in the 2008 Ky. Derby despite bad feet and post twenty. Who’s to say another newcomer will not be successful in 2009 in their initial try at Churchill?

In addition, how an applicant will adjust and more importantly perform in his new surroundings is of paramount importance. With the advent of synthetic surfaces, the job has become even more cumbersome to discern who will handle a conventional dirt track, never mind the quirky Churchill Downs surface.

As a result, you can see selecting the right horse for the job is not easy. There are many factors to be taken into consideration in order to isolate the right applicant for the job. Diligence concerning the selection process will not always guarantee success as there are many factors which cannot be taken into account, not the least of which is ‘gut instinct’. Once the gates open, a little bit of luck can go a long way, and ultimately have a bearing on succeeding and failing. Good luck to all.

LIVEWITHTHEWIZARD by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

"LIVEWITHTHEWIZARD" (All posts are done by Michael Kipness A.K.A., "The Wizard".

Livewiththewizard is a new concept, which provides the player “real time information”. In order to win in this game, it is imperative that you are kept abreast of anything that can help you win money. What I will provide you today, is updated weather reports, changing track conditions, bias information, paddock observations, equipment changes, late scratches, trip notes and horses to watch back the next time they run. Anything else I see, you will know. I am the track, just feet away from the paddock. I have been provided a paddock pass, which very few people have, with the exception of trainers, owners and their families. This allows me to get up close and personal with all the horses being saddled and walking the ring. At times, I will also be able to speak to some trainers and owners, several whom I know personally and you will know anything they tell me that is important. This is the purpose of “livewiththewizard”. It is not a selection sheet. My products are sold through brisnet.com at very affordable prices. Below is a listing of my product line. Not only do I give you selections, but I give you detailed information on why I like that particular horse.

THE WIZARD’S PRODUCT LINE

If you would like to purchase “The Wizard’s” Special Kentucky Derby stakes package, it is available through Bloodstock Research Information Services (Bris). My selections, as well as wagering strategies, will be included. Exacta and trifecta plays will be given out. You always hope you can select the Derby winner, but what is more important is how you wager on the race. Form more information on how to become a Bris member, phone: 1 800-354-9206, and ask for customer service.

I also offer Wizard daily selections for all the major race tracks from around the country. At the present time, I am covering Arlington, Belmont, Churchill, Calder, Delaware, Philadelphia Park (Mondays and Tuesday’s only) and Hollywood Park. Monmouth selections will be coming shortly. ($ 6.00)

My Pick of the Day includes in depth analysis, comments & wagering strategies on the one race which the Wizard has selected as his Pick of The Day. I am winning at a huge 50 % rate since the beginning of the year, showing a flat bet profit as well as hitting many exactas and trifectas. ($6.00)

The Simulcast Best Bets sheets are The Wizard's strongest plays from tracks around the country, compiled into one easy-to-use report. Includes The Wizard's Pick of the Day FREE OF CHARGE! ($10.00)


My Pick 3 / Pick 6 and Trifecta sheet includes these “exotic wagers” as well as Pick 6 wagering strategies from major tracks around the country, all in one report. At least 9 plays in total per report, with a focus on New York and Southern California. ($10.00)

I also offer the Superfecta play of the day. Expert advice on the new 10 cent Superfecta wager. Includes in-depth analysis and wagers on the race the Wizard has deemed the best wagering opportunity from tracks in So. California, Kentucky, Chicago and more. Available Wed. - Sun. ($5.00)

TRACK CONDITIONS AND WEATHER AT 8 AM by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

The light mist I reported at 6:15 picked up in the last hour. I went to the rail a few minutes ago to get a good look of the track surface. It is deep mud right now and the grass course looks very soft. It's difficult to say how much rain will fall throughout the day, but one thing you know is that it will probably be muddy or sloppy as the day progresses. If there is a break in the weather during the afternoon, the track could be upgraded to "good" at best. There is no doubt in my mind, that by the time they run the Kentucky Derby, there will be plenty of moisture on the track. How much? It's difficult to predict right now.

DAWN AT THE DOWNS by The Wizard on Saturday, May 02, 2009

It is 6:15 AM and I am at Churchill Downs. You might be saying, why is the Wizard at the track so early? The reason is that even at this time, people are beginning to flow in. Mostly employees, but soon the crowds, because the gates open at 8. It rained all night, but at this moment, it is only a very light mist. It's a beautiful sight to see the Twin Spires at Churchill lite in the darkness of the morning. I have hunkered down at my desk in the auxillary press box, which is right near the paoddock. I have two computers on. One which will have the tote board, so I can watch the betting action and other things I might need. I then have this computer, to do "livewiththewizard". It will be a long day, with plenty of time between races. I will be making many posts to provide you with all the information, you will need to help you make better informed decisions when you wager.