Live with The Wizard: May 15, 2009

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My Preakness Stakes Package is available through brisnet.com. Detailed analysis on all 13 horses. Selections and wagering strategies. I am focusing on Trifecta's and two exactas. The cost of my package is $10.00.

Also available are my Full Card Selections for Saturday at Pimlico. Includes 4 Best Bets. Only $6.00.

My Pick of the Day is my strongest selection, plus wagers from a a major track from around ther country. I have gone to Pimlico for Saturday's play. A nice price is expected. Only $6.00.

My Pick 3 / Pick 6 and Trifecta sheet will include several exotic plays from Saturday's Preakness card. In addition, my sheet includes several othjer plays from around the country. Only $10.00.

As this year’s result of the Kentucky Derby bears out, there is simply no “magic formula” for picking the winner of the “Run for the Roses”. And, for that matter, any thoroughbred race you handicap. Yet, year after year, handicappers spend hours trying to isolate the main contenders for the Derby, by speed figures, pace analysis, pedigree, connections, recency, last-out- performance, jockeys, and whatever other ‘pet handicapping aspect’ they hold dear in order to select the winner. As you well know, none of that worked in 2009. I don’t use speed figures in my handicapping, but to help explain Mind The Bird’s mind boggling improvement in the Derby, I will illustrate by using the BRIS numbers (generated by Brisnet.com). For example, looking at the first two finishers of this year’s Kentucky, Derby, The winner Mine That Bird and second place finisher Pioneerof the Nile, had never recorded a triple digit BRIS speed figure. In fact, Mine That Bird’s highest speed figure to date was 90, in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita He ran last of twelve that day. With that in mind, Mine That Bird’s electrifying performance at Churchill Downs two weeks ago obviously came out of left field. He his speed figure increased by 20 points. (Did I mention that he was winless in 2009, and could do no better than second in a stake at Sunland Park, in New Mexico?). While I take my hat off to Mine That Bird and his connections, his performance under the Twin Spires is a ‘head-scratcher’ to say the least. His victory will be remembered on two fronts, first, for its implausibility, and second, for the manner in which he accomplished his victory in an ‘Arazi-like’ manner. (Arazi won the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a similar explosive run from far off the pace). Only time will tell whether Mind That Bird’s Derby win was a complete fluke, or if the stars were in perfect alignment, as he delivered the race of a lifetime.

When handicapping the Preakness, one automatically looks at the Derby winner, and whether or not he can replicate that effort in Baltimore. Also, any horse that hit-the-board at Churchill Downs, is a good starting point as well, because it is indicative of recent good form. In addition, horses that were hindered by troubled trips in the Derby, might have been compromised by the track condition, or simply ran poorly with a substantive excuse, can be looked upon as contenders as well. There will obviously be some defections heading to Baltimore, and some new faces will emerge also. Rachel Alexandra, the Kentucky Oaks winner, and a recent private purchase, is expected to attract attention, both on track and off while coming off that blowout victory. Big Drama, who was forced to skip the Derby because of an injury he sustained this winter, should make his presence felt as well while returning to the racing wars. Sprinkle in a couple of other fresh faces, and the Preakness is yet another handicapping puzzle to solve, one in which should be scrutinized to the fullest.

As handicappers, there is no better feeling than playing a race which leads to a big score. We don’t even necessarily need to isolate the winner, but merely wager on a race in such a manner that generates a tidy profit. Don’t get me wrong, handicapping a winner has its own rewards, but our main objective is not to secure bragging rights, but to make money. That is a concept that is lost on many people who play the races. After an inconceivable result like this year’s Kentucky Derby, I tend to revisit a race to see what I might have overlooked, dissecting the past performances of the victor to come upon hints that led to his winning, and often times vastly-improved effort. Handicapping thoroughbred races is continual learning process. At times, it is an exercise in futility. It is a never-ending challenge, a task that many of us embrace on a daily basis.