The track started out speed favoring, but in mid day, the wind direction changed, which changed the bias to an honest surface. The inside and outside paths were equally good.
NOTE: I did not see any horses to watch from today which I would suggest to bet back next time they run. There was one, but the trip was too obvious, and the horse will be grossly overbet next time out.
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BIG UNDERLAY
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
(# 4) GRAND MOUNTAIN is 2-1, despite a 0-18 record. Not for me!
PADDOCK NOTES RACE 12
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
1st timer (# 8) ERNEST DREAM, 9-2 with 3 minutes to go, is wearing front bandages for his debut. That's a negative.
THE WAGER I GAVE OUT ON MY STAKES PACKAGE
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
$1 Trifecta 13 / 1-2-3-5-9 / ALL = $55
$1 Trifecta 13 / 1-2-3-5-9 / 1-2-3-5-9 = $20
$2.00 TRIFECTA PAYS: $216.20
$1 Trifecta 13 / 1-2-3-5-9 / 1-2-3-5-9 = $20
$2.00 TRIFECTA PAYS: $216.20
WIZARD SCORES WITH RACHEL IN THE PREAKNESS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
HERE WAS MY WRITE UP:
RACHEL ALEXANDRA
Once in awhile, a horse runs a race in which you are mesmerized by the performance. You never forget where you were at the time. I was at Churchill Downs for this year’s Kentucky Oaks. Since I was stationed in the press box, just a stone’s throw from the paddock, I watched the Oaks on a large screen television. Rachel Alexandara was attempting to win her fifth straight race. As the overwhelming 1-5 favorite, it was just a matter of how many lengths she would win by, against six other fillies that were way overmatched. Trainer Bob Baffert, who saddled the second choice in the wagering, said a couple days before the race, “it would only be fair if Rachel Alexandra gave us a 1/16th of a mile head start, and maybe we would have chance to defeat her”. The head start would not have mattered, because she would have won anyway. Rachel’s margin of victory of 20 ¼ lengths was not what impressed me, as much as the way she did it.
Prior to the race, I was in the paddock to observe all the fillies entered in the Oaks. I looked closely at each filly in their stalls, and when they were saddled, took a few spins around the walking ring. I had never seen Rachel up close and personal. If looks could kill, her six rivals should have stayed in the barn. What impressed me most about Rachel, was her physical makeup. I had never seen a three year old filly that was as long as she was from her regal head to the end of her hind quarters. Her coat glistened under the gray skies. When Jockey Calvin Borel was hoisted into the saddle, Rachel immediately arched her head towards the ground and both hers ears pricked up to the skies. Her eyes moved left and right to acknowledge the many eyes glued upon her as she made her way through the tunnel. It was game time. She was ready to step onto the field and acknowledge to the crowd of 150,000 who had traveled far and wide, that it was Rachel Alexandra who they came out to see, and she was not going disappoint them. The prior nine races on the card were just a dress rehearsal for the main event.
Through the years, I have seen several fillies defeat their male counterparts in major stakes races. In the 1980 Kentucky Derby, Genuine Risk defeated the boys by one length. In 1988 Winning Colors scorched the boys in the Santa Anita Derby as a prelude to the Derby four weeks later. In a stirring finish, Winning Color defeated one of the toughest fields ever assembled for the Run for the Rose, by a neck. In her wake were Risen Star, Seeking The Gold, Forty Niner and Regal Classic, who all went on to win several prestigious Grade 1 events. In 2007, Rags To Riches upset Curlin in the Belmont Stakes. Curlin was coming off an impressive victory in the Preakness, and later went on to be horse of the year. Ruffian, who was the best filly I have ever seen in over forty years, was entered in what was called “The Great Match Race”. Ruffian would square off against Foolish Pleasure, who was considered the best male in the land. The two hooked up right out of the gate with Ruffian securing her position inside her rival. Both fought tooth and nail down the backstretch. The pace was fast and furious as the two gladiators moved down the backstretch. Ruffian put her nose in front, and it was just a matter of time, that she would kiss her rival goodbye and good riddance. In a gut wrenching blink of an eye, Ruffian broke down. The crowd was stunned and horrified, and then tears flowed throughout the cavernous Belmont Park.
Rachael Alexandra is poised to add her name to the list of great fillies that defeated their male counterparts. If she runs her race, the Preakness will be added to her lofty resume. The question Rachel must answer Saturday is: can she fend off several rivals, whose jockey’s will be eyeballing her as soon as the gate opens? Rachel will have to earn the victory, as it will not be handed to her. Since she has not faced a stern battle in all four starts this year, it will be interesting to see how she will react to the heat. There are three scenarios: When the onslaught starts on the far turn, Rachel could succumb to the pressure. I don’t envision this happening. The second is she could be caught up in a hard fought battle the length of the stretch, while feeling the whip from Borel for the first time since she was a two year old. The third scenario, which is possible, is Rachel Alexandra cruising to the lead on the far turn, and drawing off to an easy victory.
The three year olds that Rachel will be facing in the Preakness are ripe for a quality filly to defeat. Only Quality Road, who was victorious in the Florida Derby, showed me any brilliance. Unfortunately, he suffered from two quarter cracks, which prevented him from making the Derby. He would have been my top selection. When I look over the horses that raced in the Derby, several looked alike in ability. Mine That Bird who demolished field at 50-1, may have exposed them as just an ordinary bunch that have distance limitations. Obviously, you can say that Mine That Bird clearly relished the wet track, and his other eighteen rivals did not. All this will be answered in the Preakness, which is run at 1 3/16th mile. There is a slight chance as of this writing, that there may be some rain on Saturday. Most likely the track will be dry. If so, no horse will have any excuses unless they suffer a bad trip. With Rachel Alexandra’s superb tactical speed, and the fact that there is not much early lick in the field, especially when Hull was taken out of the race to await a stake on Belmont Stakes day. Rachel is more likely than not, to a have a good journey over a course that favors her running style. With seven wins, and two second place finishes in ten career starts, she clearly knows her way to the winners circle. Her lone defeat was in her debut going 4 ½ furlongs at Churchill.
Soon after the Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra was sold for a reported ten million dollars to Jess Jackson, who also owns Curlin. She was transferred into the barn of Steve Asmussen, whom I consider one of the very best horseman in the country. However, I must tip my hat to her former trainer Hal Wiggins, who did an unbelievable job developing Rachel Alexandra. This change is unfortunate, but Jackson put up his money, and his decision to switch trainers is his prerogative. At least he has decided to keep Calvin Borel aboard the filly, who has proven to have great rapport with her. Borel is five for five on Rachel. His confidence is definitely in another stratosphere at the present time. When jockeys are in this kind of zone, horses know it. Rachel is fully aware of this. When you add up all the ingredients, it will take a big performance by her foes on Preakness day to upend a potential superstar. Her rival trainers know it, and so do all the others, who have witnessed Rachel Alexandra’s recent triumphs.
What should we expect from Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness? I am aware she is the 8-5 favorite, and must win breaking from the far outside post (13). Nevertheless, I believe she could be something real special, while the others are not. Because of her draw, Rachel is expected to be loaded last. This is a plus, as the other horses inside of her, will be standing in the gate longer than her, especially the horses breaking from inside posts. Rachel Alexandra is no Big Brown at this point of her career, but when he won from post twenty in last year’s Kentucky Derby, many people said he could not overcome the draw. I felt it did not matter. Big Brown had proven he was far superior than then his opposition. Rachel Alexandra has superb tactical speed, with no horses breaking to her outside. She always breaks well from the gate, which is imperative on Saturday. If she does, Borel can watch the race develop inside of him, and take up a stalking position in third or fourth position. Rachel likes racing outside of horses. Hopefully Borel does not lose too much ground into the first turn. He does have the length of the stretch to avoid this. Rachel Alexandra, has never lost when she has the lead at the top of the stretch. Her race will be won or lost midway on the far turn, when Borel makes his move. If she can bust the race open at that point, I expect the rest of the field to be running for second money. If Rachel is unable to go by, and has to work hard to pass the front runner, this will be the moment of truth, as to whether or not she is as good as I think she is.
RACHEL ALEXANDRA
Once in awhile, a horse runs a race in which you are mesmerized by the performance. You never forget where you were at the time. I was at Churchill Downs for this year’s Kentucky Oaks. Since I was stationed in the press box, just a stone’s throw from the paddock, I watched the Oaks on a large screen television. Rachel Alexandara was attempting to win her fifth straight race. As the overwhelming 1-5 favorite, it was just a matter of how many lengths she would win by, against six other fillies that were way overmatched. Trainer Bob Baffert, who saddled the second choice in the wagering, said a couple days before the race, “it would only be fair if Rachel Alexandra gave us a 1/16th of a mile head start, and maybe we would have chance to defeat her”. The head start would not have mattered, because she would have won anyway. Rachel’s margin of victory of 20 ¼ lengths was not what impressed me, as much as the way she did it.
Prior to the race, I was in the paddock to observe all the fillies entered in the Oaks. I looked closely at each filly in their stalls, and when they were saddled, took a few spins around the walking ring. I had never seen Rachel up close and personal. If looks could kill, her six rivals should have stayed in the barn. What impressed me most about Rachel, was her physical makeup. I had never seen a three year old filly that was as long as she was from her regal head to the end of her hind quarters. Her coat glistened under the gray skies. When Jockey Calvin Borel was hoisted into the saddle, Rachel immediately arched her head towards the ground and both hers ears pricked up to the skies. Her eyes moved left and right to acknowledge the many eyes glued upon her as she made her way through the tunnel. It was game time. She was ready to step onto the field and acknowledge to the crowd of 150,000 who had traveled far and wide, that it was Rachel Alexandra who they came out to see, and she was not going disappoint them. The prior nine races on the card were just a dress rehearsal for the main event.
Through the years, I have seen several fillies defeat their male counterparts in major stakes races. In the 1980 Kentucky Derby, Genuine Risk defeated the boys by one length. In 1988 Winning Colors scorched the boys in the Santa Anita Derby as a prelude to the Derby four weeks later. In a stirring finish, Winning Color defeated one of the toughest fields ever assembled for the Run for the Rose, by a neck. In her wake were Risen Star, Seeking The Gold, Forty Niner and Regal Classic, who all went on to win several prestigious Grade 1 events. In 2007, Rags To Riches upset Curlin in the Belmont Stakes. Curlin was coming off an impressive victory in the Preakness, and later went on to be horse of the year. Ruffian, who was the best filly I have ever seen in over forty years, was entered in what was called “The Great Match Race”. Ruffian would square off against Foolish Pleasure, who was considered the best male in the land. The two hooked up right out of the gate with Ruffian securing her position inside her rival. Both fought tooth and nail down the backstretch. The pace was fast and furious as the two gladiators moved down the backstretch. Ruffian put her nose in front, and it was just a matter of time, that she would kiss her rival goodbye and good riddance. In a gut wrenching blink of an eye, Ruffian broke down. The crowd was stunned and horrified, and then tears flowed throughout the cavernous Belmont Park.
Rachael Alexandra is poised to add her name to the list of great fillies that defeated their male counterparts. If she runs her race, the Preakness will be added to her lofty resume. The question Rachel must answer Saturday is: can she fend off several rivals, whose jockey’s will be eyeballing her as soon as the gate opens? Rachel will have to earn the victory, as it will not be handed to her. Since she has not faced a stern battle in all four starts this year, it will be interesting to see how she will react to the heat. There are three scenarios: When the onslaught starts on the far turn, Rachel could succumb to the pressure. I don’t envision this happening. The second is she could be caught up in a hard fought battle the length of the stretch, while feeling the whip from Borel for the first time since she was a two year old. The third scenario, which is possible, is Rachel Alexandra cruising to the lead on the far turn, and drawing off to an easy victory.
The three year olds that Rachel will be facing in the Preakness are ripe for a quality filly to defeat. Only Quality Road, who was victorious in the Florida Derby, showed me any brilliance. Unfortunately, he suffered from two quarter cracks, which prevented him from making the Derby. He would have been my top selection. When I look over the horses that raced in the Derby, several looked alike in ability. Mine That Bird who demolished field at 50-1, may have exposed them as just an ordinary bunch that have distance limitations. Obviously, you can say that Mine That Bird clearly relished the wet track, and his other eighteen rivals did not. All this will be answered in the Preakness, which is run at 1 3/16th mile. There is a slight chance as of this writing, that there may be some rain on Saturday. Most likely the track will be dry. If so, no horse will have any excuses unless they suffer a bad trip. With Rachel Alexandra’s superb tactical speed, and the fact that there is not much early lick in the field, especially when Hull was taken out of the race to await a stake on Belmont Stakes day. Rachel is more likely than not, to a have a good journey over a course that favors her running style. With seven wins, and two second place finishes in ten career starts, she clearly knows her way to the winners circle. Her lone defeat was in her debut going 4 ½ furlongs at Churchill.
Soon after the Kentucky Oaks, Rachel Alexandra was sold for a reported ten million dollars to Jess Jackson, who also owns Curlin. She was transferred into the barn of Steve Asmussen, whom I consider one of the very best horseman in the country. However, I must tip my hat to her former trainer Hal Wiggins, who did an unbelievable job developing Rachel Alexandra. This change is unfortunate, but Jackson put up his money, and his decision to switch trainers is his prerogative. At least he has decided to keep Calvin Borel aboard the filly, who has proven to have great rapport with her. Borel is five for five on Rachel. His confidence is definitely in another stratosphere at the present time. When jockeys are in this kind of zone, horses know it. Rachel is fully aware of this. When you add up all the ingredients, it will take a big performance by her foes on Preakness day to upend a potential superstar. Her rival trainers know it, and so do all the others, who have witnessed Rachel Alexandra’s recent triumphs.
What should we expect from Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness? I am aware she is the 8-5 favorite, and must win breaking from the far outside post (13). Nevertheless, I believe she could be something real special, while the others are not. Because of her draw, Rachel is expected to be loaded last. This is a plus, as the other horses inside of her, will be standing in the gate longer than her, especially the horses breaking from inside posts. Rachel Alexandra is no Big Brown at this point of her career, but when he won from post twenty in last year’s Kentucky Derby, many people said he could not overcome the draw. I felt it did not matter. Big Brown had proven he was far superior than then his opposition. Rachel Alexandra has superb tactical speed, with no horses breaking to her outside. She always breaks well from the gate, which is imperative on Saturday. If she does, Borel can watch the race develop inside of him, and take up a stalking position in third or fourth position. Rachel likes racing outside of horses. Hopefully Borel does not lose too much ground into the first turn. He does have the length of the stretch to avoid this. Rachel Alexandra, has never lost when she has the lead at the top of the stretch. Her race will be won or lost midway on the far turn, when Borel makes his move. If she can bust the race open at that point, I expect the rest of the field to be running for second money. If Rachel is unable to go by, and has to work hard to pass the front runner, this will be the moment of truth, as to whether or not she is as good as I think she is.
RACE ELEVEN OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Even money favorite BERGMAN blew away the field, with a powerful stretch run, after sitting in mid pack and switching out in mid stretch. The rest of the field were left in his wake.
RACE TEN OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Fourth straight front running win as the winds have appeared to subside and change course. 5-2 co-favorite MIZZCAN'TBEWRONG set a pressured but comfortable pace from the start. Put away the other speed, and drew clear to a comfortable margin. NAN'S JOY swung out wide into the stretch, then finished willingly for 2nd, though no match at all.
PADDOCK NOTES RACE TEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
NOTE: This stake scheduled for the grass as been taken off and switched to the polytrack at the same 1 mile distance.
All horses look very good.
All horses look very good.
RACE NINE OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Third straight front running victory, when (# 3) CHECK MY DADDY scores at 8-1. All out, as the even money favorite IT'S A MIRACLE who finished boldly too late and just ran out of ground. She was tons the best after checking with run at the top of the stretch. Raced in traffic until finding a seam very late.
*** PICK OF THE DAY SCORES AGAIN ON PREAKNESS UNDER CARD!!! WINNING AT 50 % SINCE LATE LAST YEAR
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
WIZARD'S PICK OF THE DAY DOES IT AGAIN!!! SCORES ON THE PREAKNESS UNDERCARD AND KEYS COLD EXACTA: Here was my write up.
Pick of the Day:# 8 RAVALO Dueled through the first six furlongs of the Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland last time out, and that is rarely what you want to be doing over the Polytrack there going 7 furlongs. Despite that, he held well to finish a close fourth, in a race he had to need, which was his first start since late January. 5yo gelding now drops a notch in class, benefits from that race under his belt, and returns to Pimlico where he is one for one lifetime. Son of Mutakddim captured the Allens Prospect last Spring here in very fast time. He is proven over this course and is also fond of wet tracks (6-2-2-1), so the conditions should suit well this afternoon. There isn't that much pace in this race, especially for a Grade 3 sprint, so Ravalo should sit a favorable, forward running trip, before taking over for good turning for home. Top speed rider John Velasquez got to know him in that Keeneland race, and is back aboard today.
THANK YOU TO EVERYONE WHO SUPPORTS THE PICK OF THE DAY ON A DAILY BASIS. I HAVE SELECTED 50% WINNERS SINCE LATE LAST YEAR, ALL AT A FLAT BET PROFIT - NOT COUNTING EXOTIC PAYOFFS.
> NOTE: Pick of the Day available 7 days a week through brisnet.com
Pick of the Day:# 8 RAVALO Dueled through the first six furlongs of the Grade 2 Commonwealth Stakes at Keeneland last time out, and that is rarely what you want to be doing over the Polytrack there going 7 furlongs. Despite that, he held well to finish a close fourth, in a race he had to need, which was his first start since late January. 5yo gelding now drops a notch in class, benefits from that race under his belt, and returns to Pimlico where he is one for one lifetime. Son of Mutakddim captured the Allens Prospect last Spring here in very fast time. He is proven over this course and is also fond of wet tracks (6-2-2-1), so the conditions should suit well this afternoon. There isn't that much pace in this race, especially for a Grade 3 sprint, so Ravalo should sit a favorable, forward running trip, before taking over for good turning for home. Top speed rider John Velasquez got to know him in that Keeneland race, and is back aboard today.
THANK YOU TO EVERYONE WHO SUPPORTS THE PICK OF THE DAY ON A DAILY BASIS. I HAVE SELECTED 50% WINNERS SINCE LATE LAST YEAR, ALL AT A FLAT BET PROFIT - NOT COUNTING EXOTIC PAYOFFS.
> NOTE: Pick of the Day available 7 days a week through brisnet.com
*** PRELUDE TO THE PREAKNESS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
As this year’s result of the Kentucky Derby bears out, there is simply no “magic formula” for picking the winner of the “Run for the Roses”. And, for that matter, any thoroughbred race you handicap. Yet, year after year, handicappers spend hours trying to isolate the main contenders for the Derby, by speed figures, pace analysis, pedigree, connections, recency, last-out- performance, jockeys, and whatever other ‘pet handicapping aspect’ they hold dear in order to select the winner. As you well know, none of that worked in 2009. I don’t use speed figures in my handicapping, but to help explain Mind The Bird’s mind boggling improvement in the Derby, I will illustrate by using the BRIS numbers (generated by Brisnet.com). For example, looking at the first two finishers of this year’s Kentucky, Derby, The winner Mine That Bird and second place finisher Pioneerof the Nile, had never recorded a triple digit BRIS speed figure. In fact, Mine That Bird’s highest speed figure to date was 90, in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, over a synthetic surface at Santa Anita He ran last of twelve that day. With that in mind, Mine That Bird’s electrifying performance at Churchill Downs two weeks ago obviously came out of left field. He his speed figure increased by 20 points. (Did I mention that he was winless in 2009, and could do no better than second in a stake at Sunland Park, in New Mexico?). While I take my hat off to Mine That Bird and his connections, his performance under the Twin Spires is a ‘head-scratcher’ to say the least. His victory will be remembered on two fronts, first, for its implausibility, and second, for the manner in which he accomplished his victory in an ‘Arazi-like’ manner. (Arazi won the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a similar explosive run from far off the pace). Only time will tell whether Mind That Bird’s Derby win was a complete fluke, or if the stars were in perfect alignment, as he delivered the race of a lifetime.
When handicapping the Preakness, one automatically looks at the Derby winner, and whether or not he can replicate that effort in Baltimore. Also, any horse that hit-the-board at Churchill Downs, is a good starting point as well, because it is indicative of recent good form. In addition, horses that were hindered by troubled trips in the Derby, might have been compromised by the track condition, or simply ran poorly with a substantive excuse, can be looked upon as contenders as well. There will obviously be some defections heading to Baltimore, and some new faces will emerge also. Rachel Alexandra, the Kentucky Oaks winner, and a recent private purchase, is expected to attract attention, both on track and off while coming off that blowout victory. Big Drama, who was forced to skip the Derby because of an injury he sustained this winter, should make his presence felt as well while returning to the racing wars. Sprinkle in a couple of other fresh faces, and the Preakness is yet another handicapping puzzle to solve, one in which should be scrutinized to the fullest.
As handicappers, there is no better feeling than playing a race which leads to a big score. We don’t even necessarily need to isolate the winner, but merely wager on a race in such a manner that generates a tidy profit. Don’t get me wrong, handicapping a winner has its own rewards, but our main objective is not to secure bragging rights, but to make money. That is a concept that is lost on many people who play the races. After an inconceivable result like this year’s Kentucky Derby, I tend to revisit a race to see what I might have overlooked, dissecting the past performances of the victor to come upon hints that led to his winning, and often times vastly-improved effort. Handicapping thoroughbred races is continual learning process. At times, it is an exercise in futility. It is a never-ending challenge, a task that many of us embrace on a daily basis.
When handicapping the Preakness, one automatically looks at the Derby winner, and whether or not he can replicate that effort in Baltimore. Also, any horse that hit-the-board at Churchill Downs, is a good starting point as well, because it is indicative of recent good form. In addition, horses that were hindered by troubled trips in the Derby, might have been compromised by the track condition, or simply ran poorly with a substantive excuse, can be looked upon as contenders as well. There will obviously be some defections heading to Baltimore, and some new faces will emerge also. Rachel Alexandra, the Kentucky Oaks winner, and a recent private purchase, is expected to attract attention, both on track and off while coming off that blowout victory. Big Drama, who was forced to skip the Derby because of an injury he sustained this winter, should make his presence felt as well while returning to the racing wars. Sprinkle in a couple of other fresh faces, and the Preakness is yet another handicapping puzzle to solve, one in which should be scrutinized to the fullest.
As handicappers, there is no better feeling than playing a race which leads to a big score. We don’t even necessarily need to isolate the winner, but merely wager on a race in such a manner that generates a tidy profit. Don’t get me wrong, handicapping a winner has its own rewards, but our main objective is not to secure bragging rights, but to make money. That is a concept that is lost on many people who play the races. After an inconceivable result like this year’s Kentucky Derby, I tend to revisit a race to see what I might have overlooked, dissecting the past performances of the victor to come upon hints that led to his winning, and often times vastly-improved effort. Handicapping thoroughbred races is continual learning process. At times, it is an exercise in futility. It is a never-ending challenge, a task that many of us embrace on a daily basis.
BETTING ACTION RACE NINE
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
IT'S A MIRACLE opened up an overwhelming 2-5 favorite. The closest price after her is 7-1.
RACE EIGHT OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
5-1 winner FIGHTER WIN cleared early, setting a moderate pace from the start. Stiff drive to hold winning advantage late. KISS THE QUEEN rated in mid pack. Came just outside winner in deep stretch and then just ran out of ground. LITTLE NANCY closed from far back racing widest to be a no threat 3rd.
PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS (Race Eight)
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
(# 1) STEP SISTER was very fractious in the paddock and again in the post parade. The rest of the field looked ok.
RACE EIGHT BETTING ACTION
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Race 8, scheduled for the grass, is switched to the polytrack. The favorite (# 3) has drifted up to 7-2. This is an extremley wide open race.
BETTING ACTION IN RACE EIGHT
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
(# 3) KISS THE QUEEN who is 9-2 on the morning line, opened upthe 5-2 favorite. The rest of the field is well spread out in the wagering.
RACE SEVEN OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
13-1 upset by ALABAMA CLAY, who was the first wire to wire winner on the day. This was more a result of the slow pace he set, rather than a change in the bias. Rated well on the front end. Opened up nice lead in mid stretch, then was all out to hold off the well meant B L's PAPA CO COO, who nearly ran him down, but was beaten a nose. Another step he wins. Both clearly best of the rest.
PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS (Race Seven)
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
(# 10) continues to get hammered in the wagering for very sharp connections. Was 9-2 in the morning line. NOTE: He gets front bandages removed today. wore them last out off the Miller claim. The betting action, front off and a smart drop, spell a well meant horse in this 7th race.
BETTING ACTION IN RACE SEVEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
(# 10) B L'S PAPA COO COO, who was 9-2 in the morning line, opened up as a 2-1 clear choice in the wagering. The closest to him is a 5-1 shot and the rest are well spread out. This 5 year old hails from a hot barn, but this is a very competitive race.
MID DAY BIAS UPDATE THRU 6 RACES
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
The track clearly favors horses closing from off the pace. (A STRONG BIAS!) There is no path bias, as horses have shown they can win inside and outside.
RACE SIX OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
7-2 winner MANEKE, whose all 7 career wins have been on grass, won his first start on polytrack. Race along rail in mid pack. Continued to race inside, taking a short lead at the 1/16th pole, and held well late. SWEETEN WITH GOLD raced behind the winner, but took the same inside path down the stretch to get up for second late. BOOTS ARE WALKING sat a perfect inside oout trip. Had dead aim from mid stretch but could not punch it in late.
BETTING ACTION IN RACE SIX
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Wide open betting board. 2 horses at 9-2 and the rest well spread out in a very competitive dash
RACE SIX
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Race 6 was originally scheduled for the grass but is switched to the polytrack to be run at the same 5f distance.
RACE FIVE OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
9-5 favorite CURE was our throw out because of the 1st time fronts. He had dead aim on the leaders turning for home, but had nothing late. 7-2 wiunner GLORY TO SPARE was the 5th off the pace runner to win in 5 races. tucked in with cover along the inside until tipping out in mid stretch to run down longshot REMEMBER ROBIN at the wire. Both were well clear of cure at the wire.
PADDOCK NOTES RACE FIVE
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
(# 5) CURE, the 2-1, favorite with 7 minutes to go, is adding front bandages for the first time, being reunited with Reavis. Don;t like this move as this 5 year old never wore the fronts when in his barn. Cure actually has never worn them in 24 career starts.
BETTING ACTION IN RACE FIVE
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Only 2 horses are getting bet. (# 9) FARRAGOTS FOLLIES, 9-2 morningline, is 2-1 with 11 minutes to. Makes first start for red hot Catalano who is deadly with new aquisitions. 5-2 second choice CURE makes his first start for Reavis off the re-claim. Reavis, like Catalano, wins a high % of races with horses making first start for this barn. Reavis did train him during the winter.
BIAS UPDATE THROUGH RACE FOUR
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
All 4 races havde been won by horses rallying wide from off the pace. This is a result of a stiff head wind in the stretch which is hindering the front runners.
RACE FOUR OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Rider Junior Alvarado wins his 2nd race on the day with 9-1 winner CAFFEINE FREE who raced in mid pack. Swung wide into the stretch, and wore down ANN'S APPROVAL who rated in 3rd. Moved to a narrow lead in mid stretch, but was outfinished in the final 50 yards. Tough trip for long shot A.J.'s LOVE who raced in good striking position from the start. Tried to split horses through a narrow hole between the pacseetter and Ann's Approval at the top of the stretch, but was forced to check. Recovered in mid stretch to rally along the rail late, then finished evenly. Would have been 2nd with a cleaner trip.
BETTING ACTION IN RACE FOUR
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
(# 10), who is the big favorite in the Pick 3's has gotten pounded down to the 8-5 favorite with 3 minutes to go.
PADDOCK NOTES RACE FOUR
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
All horses look ok. (# 5) ANN'S APPROVAL is being equipped with front bandages for the first time.
BETTING ACTION IN RACE FOUR
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
NOTE: This race originally scheduled for the grass is switched to the polytrack at the same 1 1/16 mile distance.
Wide open board on the opne, with the favorite at 3-1 and the rest well spread out. (# 10) LLAMREI is a satrong favorite in the Pick's (ending in this race). She is 6-1 with 14 minutes to go.
Wide open board on the opne, with the favorite at 3-1 and the rest well spread out. (# 10) LLAMREI is a satrong favorite in the Pick's (ending in this race). She is 6-1 with 14 minutes to go.
RACE THREE OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Another off the pace win, as the two speeds tired very late. 18-1 winner HEZA GAMER was last into the stretch. Steady grinding rally widest to just get up at the wire nipping ARCH'S ARROW, who moved just before the winner, but could not hold on. PETERMAN had a mild rally along the rail to get 3rd. KID GUSTO and LOGAN'SSHOREBREEZE locked horns from the start. They continued to duke it out until tiring very late. Kid Gusto came out late bumping Logan who was placed ourth on the DQ.
THE WIND (Race 2)
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
There is a stiff wind (known as a "tail wind") to the back of the horses on the backstretch. This is resulting in quick fractions early. When the front runners turn for home, they now must race into a head wind, which plays favorably to horses who come from off the pace. I will update you if the direction of the wind changes.
RACE TWO OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
9-5 favorite TAZZ, rated comfortably in mid pack racing widest. Cruised up to the leaders in hand at the top of the stretch. Drove clear under mild urging and had plenty left to hold off AND THE BEAST who chased along the rail. Appeared to dislike the inside, dropping back thru the turn. Swung out wide entering the stretch, then continued on willingly to be a clear 2nd, though no match for the winner.
PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS (Race Two)
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
All horses look good. (# 5) CANNON'S CALL removes the front bandages. Did not wear the fronts in his first 4 starts.
THE START OF THE PICK 4
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Race two starts the Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
RACE ONE OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
7-1 winner BULLET FROM ABROAD, sat a perfect rail trip, stalking the pacesetter JIM'S TRIPPIN. Swung out entering the stretch. Steady rally thru the lane to wear that one down. Had enough left to hold off WINNER'S STORY, who rallied in tight quarters along the rail, to snatch 2nd from the pacesetter.
SATURDAY SCRATCHES & CHANGES AT ARLINGTON
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Arlington ParkSaturday, May 16, 2009
Updated: 1145 AMWeather : 58* SunnyPolytrack: FASTTurf: CancelledLane: N/A
(All Post Times are approximate & Central Time Zone)
RACE 1 Post Time 12:15 PM
Scratch # 8 – Nafir’s Lad
RACE 2 Post Time 12:43 PM
Jockey Change - #1 – Eddie Perez
RACE 3 Post Time 1:12 PM
RACE 4 Post Time 1:40 PM 1 1/16 Mile Main Track
Scratch # 7 – Single Solution
RACE 5 Post Time 2:06 PM
Scratch # 2 – Apt to Shine
RACE 6 Post Time 2:34 PM 5 F Main Track
Jockey Change - # 10 - TBA
RACE 7 Post Time 3:03 PM
RACE 8 Post Time 3:36 PM 1 1/16 Mile Main Track
Jockey Change # 10 – Rene Douglas (117 lbs)
RACE 9 Post Time 4:04 PM
Scratch # 1 (poe) – Doc Kate
RACE 10 Post Time 4:32 PM 1 1/16 Mile Main Track
Scratch # 1 - SharbatScratch # 3 – Three GracesScratch # 4 – Sly StormScratch # 8 - Ciao
RACE 11 Post Time 5:01 PM
RACE 12 Post Time 5:46 PM
Scratch #6 – You The MonScratch # 12 – Salty’s Revelation
Updated: 1145 AMWeather : 58* SunnyPolytrack: FASTTurf: CancelledLane: N/A
(All Post Times are approximate & Central Time Zone)
RACE 1 Post Time 12:15 PM
Scratch # 8 – Nafir’s Lad
RACE 2 Post Time 12:43 PM
Jockey Change - #1 – Eddie Perez
RACE 3 Post Time 1:12 PM
RACE 4 Post Time 1:40 PM 1 1/16 Mile Main Track
Scratch # 7 – Single Solution
RACE 5 Post Time 2:06 PM
Scratch # 2 – Apt to Shine
RACE 6 Post Time 2:34 PM 5 F Main Track
Jockey Change - # 10 - TBA
RACE 7 Post Time 3:03 PM
RACE 8 Post Time 3:36 PM 1 1/16 Mile Main Track
Jockey Change # 10 – Rene Douglas (117 lbs)
RACE 9 Post Time 4:04 PM
Scratch # 1 (poe) – Doc Kate
RACE 10 Post Time 4:32 PM 1 1/16 Mile Main Track
Scratch # 1 - SharbatScratch # 3 – Three GracesScratch # 4 – Sly StormScratch # 8 - Ciao
RACE 11 Post Time 5:01 PM
RACE 12 Post Time 5:46 PM
Scratch #6 – You The MonScratch # 12 – Salty’s Revelation
TRACK CONDITIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, May 16, 2009
Polytrack is FAST. TURF racing has been cancelled for today.
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