Outside paths and tactical speed were best on the polytrack. The soft grass course favored tactical speed.
HORSES TO WATCH AUG 8
1st race GENERAL CHARLEY
7yo looked great in the paddock. Normally a stalker, he found himself setting a pressured pace. He held the lead into deep stretch before yielding to the heavily favored winner. The rest of the field was far back. Should run big right back.
4th race JIMMY GOT EVEN
Son of Stephen Got Even was far back in his debut then rallied strongly and missed by just 4 lengths. He is bred for a route, so look for Divito to stretch him out, possibly with another sprint under his belt.
5th race SHE BE WILD
Filly from the first crop of Offlee Wild (Wild Again) had been off since she blasted maiden claimers in her debut in May. She dusted a very decent field of stakes fillies, an effort that was visually extremely impressive. Unlimited potential at this point.
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BOMBS AWAY IN RACE TWELVE
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
The last of the day resulted in a 30-1 winner first and a 60-1 horse second. The exacta paid $2,176. The Trifecta paid $29,435 and the 10 cent superfecta paid a whopping $6,770. God bless anyone that cashed any of these. Nice end to a great racing day at Arlington. Funny how those 2 looked poor in the paddock. That is a very rare occurance.
NOTE: Arlington racetrack did a fantastic job putting this day together. If you have never been to Arlington, it would be treat to come here.
NOTE: Arlington racetrack did a fantastic job putting this day together. If you have never been to Arlington, it would be treat to come here.
RACE TWELVE PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 2, 4, 5 7, 12, and 13 all looked poor. The rest were ok
RACE TWELVE BETTING ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 8 CLASSIC ACTRESS, 5-2 on the morning line, opened up at 6-1, but is the clear cut favorite in all pools.
RACE ELEVEN TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
U APPEAL TO ME and TURF MELODY dueled for the early lead with favorite DIXIE BAND stakling in 3rd from the rail. DIXIE BAND came out for the drive, wore down the leaders and pulled clear under a hand ride. The pace setters held on to finish 2nd and 3rd. The others were not a factor.
THE WIZARD'S PRODUCT LINE
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
THE WIZARD’S PRODUCT LINE
CALL 800-354-9206 AND ASK FOR CUSTOMER SERVICE TO SIGN UP FOR ANY WIZARD PRODUCTS. YOU CAN ALSO DO IT ON LINE AT BRISNET.COM
I offer Wizard daily selections for all the major race tracks from around the country. At the present time, I am covering Arlington, Saratoga, Delaware, Philadelphia Park (Mondays and Tuesday’s only), Del Mar and Monmouth. ($ 6.00)
My Pick of the Day includes in depth analysis, comments & wagering strategies on the one race which the Wizard has selected as his Pick of The Day. ($6.00)
The Simulcast Best Bets sheets are The Wizard's strongest plays from tracks around the country, compiled into one easy-to-use report. Includes The Wizard's Pick of the Day FREE OF CHARGE! ($10.00)
My Pick 3 / Pick 6 and Trifecta sheet includes these “exotic wagers” as well as Pick 6 wagering strategies from major tracks around the country, all in one report. At least 9 plays in total per report, with a focus on New York and Southern California. ($10.00)
I also offer the Superfecta play of the day. Expert advice on the new 10 cent Superfecta wager. Includes in-depth analysis and wagers on the race the Wizard has deemed the best wagering opportunity from tracks in So. California, Kentucky, Chicago and more. Available Wed. - Sun. ($5.00)
CALL 800-354-9206 AND ASK FOR CUSTOMER SERVICE TO SIGN UP FOR ANY WIZARD PRODUCTS. YOU CAN ALSO DO IT ON LINE AT BRISNET.COM
I offer Wizard daily selections for all the major race tracks from around the country. At the present time, I am covering Arlington, Saratoga, Delaware, Philadelphia Park (Mondays and Tuesday’s only), Del Mar and Monmouth. ($ 6.00)
My Pick of the Day includes in depth analysis, comments & wagering strategies on the one race which the Wizard has selected as his Pick of The Day. ($6.00)
The Simulcast Best Bets sheets are The Wizard's strongest plays from tracks around the country, compiled into one easy-to-use report. Includes The Wizard's Pick of the Day FREE OF CHARGE! ($10.00)
My Pick 3 / Pick 6 and Trifecta sheet includes these “exotic wagers” as well as Pick 6 wagering strategies from major tracks around the country, all in one report. At least 9 plays in total per report, with a focus on New York and Southern California. ($10.00)
I also offer the Superfecta play of the day. Expert advice on the new 10 cent Superfecta wager. Includes in-depth analysis and wagers on the race the Wizard has deemed the best wagering opportunity from tracks in So. California, Kentucky, Chicago and more. Available Wed. - Sun. ($5.00)
*** RACE TWELVE ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
RACE 12
6 RICHWOOD SILVER
Will help set what should be a quick or honest pace in this grass event. Enters in sharp form for Simon barn. Benefits from switch to Elvis today.
8 CLASSIC ACTRESS
Favorite will take some beating in this spot. She is capable of rating and will need to do that with Richwood Silver in the field. Four time winner on the lawn and has never been worse than second here at Arlington. Regular rider up.
9 NICK’S GIRL
Was claimed back by veteran outfit who has had success with this daughter of Ecton Park. Seems better on the main track but has run some good ones on the grass.
11 ELEGANTE
Takes sharp drop in second race off the claim for capable trainer. Returns to her preferred surface on the lawn and gets a major switch to excellent grass rider Eddie Razo Jr. Can upset at a square price!
RACE 12
6 RICHWOOD SILVER
Will help set what should be a quick or honest pace in this grass event. Enters in sharp form for Simon barn. Benefits from switch to Elvis today.
8 CLASSIC ACTRESS
Favorite will take some beating in this spot. She is capable of rating and will need to do that with Richwood Silver in the field. Four time winner on the lawn and has never been worse than second here at Arlington. Regular rider up.
9 NICK’S GIRL
Was claimed back by veteran outfit who has had success with this daughter of Ecton Park. Seems better on the main track but has run some good ones on the grass.
11 ELEGANTE
Takes sharp drop in second race off the claim for capable trainer. Returns to her preferred surface on the lawn and gets a major switch to excellent grass rider Eddie Razo Jr. Can upset at a square price!
MORE BETTING ACTION
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 3 continues to get crushed in all the pools. Down to even money with 5 minutes to go.
RACE ELEVEN PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
DIXIE BAND looked very good. AUSPICIOUS RISK had a shiny coat and looked good. FANTASTICO ROBERTO also looked good. U APPEAL TO ME was fractious. GORDON BENNETT had a dull coat. LETSGETITONMON looked good. TURF MELODY had kidney sweat. EVEN WILDER just looked awful.
RACE TEN TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
IVORY EMPRESS stalked longshot BLUE HAZE DAY, took over in the lane and was not threatened in the drive. BREEZING RAIN rallied from mid-pack to edge CLEAR CUT for 2nd. MORE KISSES was never a factor
RACE ELEVEN BETTING ACTION ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
2 clear cut favorites in # 2 FANTASTICO ROBERTO and # 3 DIXIE BAND. The rest are well spread out in the wagering.
*** RACE ELEVEN ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
RACE 11
1 AUSPICIOUS RISK
Emerged victorious despite a bumping incident when unveiled by trainer Bret Calhoun on July 19. Has a recency edge over most rivals and is well drawn on the rail. Projects to work out a ground-saving trip under jockey E. Razo Jr.
2 FANTASTICO ROBERTO
Makes his North American debut for trainer Todd Pletcher. He won both starts on turf abroad in very easy fashion. Looks to transfer that form to the U.S. and to a synthetic surface as well. Attracts jockey Ramon Dominguez, a definite plus.
3 DIXIE BAND
Sharp pace-pressing debut win in good time on June 21. Broke well from an outside post to stalk the frontrunner, and then drew clear willingly. Meets winners today while stepping up, stretching out and moving inside. Gets a huge rider upgrade as well for her second career start. Seems to possess a tactical edge over her main rivals.
7 TURF MELODY
Won by a 'pole' switching to Colonial on June 26 at today's distance. Vote of confidence shipping to Arlington and switching to Polytrack which he is bred to handle. Continues to train well in the interim and attracts Leparoux.
1 AUSPICIOUS RISK
Emerged victorious despite a bumping incident when unveiled by trainer Bret Calhoun on July 19. Has a recency edge over most rivals and is well drawn on the rail. Projects to work out a ground-saving trip under jockey E. Razo Jr.
2 FANTASTICO ROBERTO
Makes his North American debut for trainer Todd Pletcher. He won both starts on turf abroad in very easy fashion. Looks to transfer that form to the U.S. and to a synthetic surface as well. Attracts jockey Ramon Dominguez, a definite plus.
3 DIXIE BAND
Sharp pace-pressing debut win in good time on June 21. Broke well from an outside post to stalk the frontrunner, and then drew clear willingly. Meets winners today while stepping up, stretching out and moving inside. Gets a huge rider upgrade as well for her second career start. Seems to possess a tactical edge over her main rivals.
7 TURF MELODY
Won by a 'pole' switching to Colonial on June 26 at today's distance. Vote of confidence shipping to Arlington and switching to Polytrack which he is bred to handle. Continues to train well in the interim and attracts Leparoux.
RACE TEN PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
MORE KISSES, off since last year, looked fantastic. BREZING RAIN looked very good as well. IVORY EMPRESS also looked very good. MONEDA DE ORO looked just awful in the paddock. ADDED DELIGHT was fractious and had a dull coat. The other four all looked OK.
THE MILLION TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
PRESIOUS PASSION opened his usual long lead but was done by the time the field turned for home. GIO PONTI stumbled and was shuffled back at the start. Dominguez worked his way up to mid-pack, found room to rally on the outside and surged to the front in mid-stretch. He had plenty left to hold off the closing runs of JUST AS WELL and STOTSFOLD. The others were far back. EINSTEIN was in good stalking position but came up empty in the drive.
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RACE TEN BETTING ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 3 BREEZING RAIN, # 5 MORE KISSES and # 9 IVORY EMPRESS are all vying for the favorites roll at 3-1 at the open.
*** RACE TEN ANALYSYS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
RACE 10
3 BREZING RAIN
This filly was a tactical winner to begin her career on June 20 over today's track. Overcame a lack of racing room to contend, and then slowly pulled her way clear late. She takes the next logical step up the class ladder for her owner/breeder. Has not skipped a beat in the morning since that debut score. Can work out a good inside trip under J. Alvarado.
5 MORE KISSES
Returns to make her first start of the year. Well-spaced races hint at infirmities. She gave nobody a chance when last seen under silks on Dec. 7 at Turfway Park. Brushed aside early pace pressure and then won as her rider pleased. Has been burning up the imitation dirt at Keeneland in the morning. Well spotted meeting a vulnerable field off-the-shelf. Presence of Kent D. in the saddle speaks volumes.
7 EXCELENTE
Returns to an all-weather track, which she actually might prefer. Lone lifetime win came in her second start, her first over a synthetic course last year. She has failed to win since that effort. Could wake-up in a big way with a class drop and changes in surface and venue.
8 ADDED DELIGHT
Has not been disgraced in all three starts vs. winners over the Arlington Park Polytrack surface. She settled late on July 11 at seven furlongs after departing from a tough outside post. Might actually benefit from today's shorter distance and a bit better post as well.
9 IVORY EMPRESS
Improving filly overcame traffic problems to beat Churchill maidens in fast time. She had a next-out winner behind her in 2nd and earned a figure good enough to contend for the win in this entry-level allowance. Blueblood daughter of Seeking The Gold has a bright future for Ian Wilkes.
RACE 10
3 BREZING RAIN
This filly was a tactical winner to begin her career on June 20 over today's track. Overcame a lack of racing room to contend, and then slowly pulled her way clear late. She takes the next logical step up the class ladder for her owner/breeder. Has not skipped a beat in the morning since that debut score. Can work out a good inside trip under J. Alvarado.
5 MORE KISSES
Returns to make her first start of the year. Well-spaced races hint at infirmities. She gave nobody a chance when last seen under silks on Dec. 7 at Turfway Park. Brushed aside early pace pressure and then won as her rider pleased. Has been burning up the imitation dirt at Keeneland in the morning. Well spotted meeting a vulnerable field off-the-shelf. Presence of Kent D. in the saddle speaks volumes.
7 EXCELENTE
Returns to an all-weather track, which she actually might prefer. Lone lifetime win came in her second start, her first over a synthetic course last year. She has failed to win since that effort. Could wake-up in a big way with a class drop and changes in surface and venue.
8 ADDED DELIGHT
Has not been disgraced in all three starts vs. winners over the Arlington Park Polytrack surface. She settled late on July 11 at seven furlongs after departing from a tough outside post. Might actually benefit from today's shorter distance and a bit better post as well.
9 IVORY EMPRESS
Improving filly overcame traffic problems to beat Churchill maidens in fast time. She had a next-out winner behind her in 2nd and earned a figure good enough to contend for the win in this entry-level allowance. Blueblood daughter of Seeking The Gold has a bright future for Ian Wilkes.
MILLION BETTING ACTION
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
With 5 minutes to go, Gio Ponti continues to be the 9-5 favorite with Einstein second choice at 3-1. Precious Passion is 3rd choice at 9-2. Mr SIDNEY is 6-1, CIMI DE TRIOMPHE is 8-1, with 3-4-7 all double digits.
THE MILLION PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
GIO PONTI is a well made bay whose coat was gleaming. He looked just great. PRESIOUS PASSION may appear to be wet, but that was because he was being constantly sponged off to fight the heat. EINSTEIN's dark bay coat was sparkling and the old pro looked excellent. JUST AS WELL was not impressive. He was starting to wash out and also showed some kidney sweat. The other four starters all looked good.
MILLION BETTING ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
Not unexpected, Gio Ponti opens up the 8-5 favorite with Einstein close in tow at 5-2. Presious Passion, the main speed is the 3rd choice at 4-1. These odds reflect the same order as the one set by the the person who posts the morning line. The way this grass course is favoring speed, Gio Ponti will have to be much the best to close from well off the pace to win. He could just be that. Einstein will have first run on Passion. Great race where riding strategy will determine the outcome.
BEVERLEY D TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
Perfect tripper DYNAFIRCE tracked the soft pace set by longshot TIZAQUEENA, got the lead entering the final furlong and was able to hold the closers at bay. Irish filly ALNADANA stalked the leaders from the rail, got in a bit tight early in the drive then finished strongly for 2nd. Favorite PURE CLAN was rated at the back of the pack and did well to edge TIZAQUEENA for 3rd as she was closing into a slow pace.
TURF BIAS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
It's very difficult to close from the back of the pack on the grass course today. All winners and place horses have been on or near the lead throughout. This is the result of the soft turf and the tail wind down the backstretch.
POST TIME FOR THE MILLION
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
(39 minuters to go) Post time is 4:42 (central time) or 5:42 (eastern time). You can now take a break and get something to eat and drink. You have 15 minutes to do it.
DESORMEAUX and MOTT WIN THE BEVERLEY D
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
Kent Desormeaux scores his 2nd straight grass stakes win, this time hooking up with Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, with 7-1 upset winner DYNAFORCE. Similar stalking tactics as he employed with Secretartiat victor Take The Points.
*** THE ARLINGTON MILLION RACE ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
RACE 9
1 EINSTEIN
Einstein never really got a chance to strut his stuff on dirt in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster H. on June 13 at Churchill Downs. The Helen Pitts trained seven-year-old was trapped in and behind runners most of the way, lacking racing room at strategic points in the race. In his previous start, Einstein managed to annex the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs, posting a dramatic head victory over Cowboy Cal. Equally proficient on both turf and dirt, Einstein returns to grass today. He ran a creditable fifth in last year’s Arlington Million, and if afforded clear sailing while boasting previous experience over this course; he has every right to improve upon his recent third-place finish. Handles soft footing well.
2 PRESIOUS PASSION
Nobody plays “catch me if you can” better than Precious Passion. And, even when he is caught, like on June 13 at Monmouth Park for instance, he still managed to keep his nose in front to post a gritty win. Barring an unforeseen incident at the start, Precious Passion is going to be the pacesetter in the Million. Whether he can carry his speed 1 1/4 miles against Grade 1 rivals while toting 126 lbs. remains to be seen. He did win the McKnight last year at Calder at 12 furlongs, relaxing kindly on the front end under jockey Elvis Trujillo. Lone speed runners get brave when left unoccupied on the lead. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Precious Passion won’t do the same again today, especially when you consider his knack for accomplishing that exact task. Major question he must answer is if he can handle this soft going. That will be a tough task with the likes of Einstein and Gio Ponti, who have shown a fondness for that surface.
5 MR. SIDNEY
Despite all three of his turf wins coming at a flat mile in 2009, Mr. Sidney is an interesting entrant in the Arlington Million. He was allowed to drop too far behind on Feb. 21 at Gulfstream Park in a marathon turf route behind Presious Passion while adding blinkers. He closed with good energy in that contest, and nearly got the show, a strong effort all things considered. Back against Grade 1 company today at ten furlongs is unquestionably a tall order for him, but trainer Bill Mott has worked miracles on the grass in the past. He should at least make his presence felt with his typical race.
6 GIO PONTI
Since being transferred back to the lawn by trainer Christophe Clement as a four-year-old in 2009, Gio Ponti has done nothing but win. He captured the Frank Kilroe Handicap in March by a scant nose, signaling that his best game was definitely on grass. That victory was used as a springboard to capture the Grade 1 Manhattan Handicap at Belmont Park nearly three months later, and then the Grade 1 Man O’ War four weeks hence. Each victory did nothing but enhance his reputation as the best turf horse in North America. In his most recent win in New York, he sat closer to the lead, albeit tracking pedestrian fractions in the process. Regardless, his strong late kick was present, as he overhauled runners in the stretch to win going away. Gio Ponti is a star in the making, and he will go a long away towards solidifying that status with yet another victory in the Arlington Million. In this year’s renewal of the race, he catches a rather vulnerable field. The fact that he can adapt to any pace scenario that he is confronted with, and does have to carry his turf course around with him, makes him not only an obvious selection, but the right one! Handles soft footing well.
7 GLORIA DE CAMPEAO
This Brazilian-bred runner has not competed since a well-deserved head victory in Singapore last May, annexing the Group 1 Singapore Airlines International Cup under jockey Tiago Pereira. A winner in Dubai as well prior to that effort his presence today gives the Arlington Million a definite International flavor. Trained by Pascal Bary, Gloria De Campeao possesses versatile running styles, and he should have no trouble getting today’s 1 1/4 mile Million distance.
RACE 9
1 EINSTEIN
Einstein never really got a chance to strut his stuff on dirt in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster H. on June 13 at Churchill Downs. The Helen Pitts trained seven-year-old was trapped in and behind runners most of the way, lacking racing room at strategic points in the race. In his previous start, Einstein managed to annex the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs, posting a dramatic head victory over Cowboy Cal. Equally proficient on both turf and dirt, Einstein returns to grass today. He ran a creditable fifth in last year’s Arlington Million, and if afforded clear sailing while boasting previous experience over this course; he has every right to improve upon his recent third-place finish. Handles soft footing well.
2 PRESIOUS PASSION
Nobody plays “catch me if you can” better than Precious Passion. And, even when he is caught, like on June 13 at Monmouth Park for instance, he still managed to keep his nose in front to post a gritty win. Barring an unforeseen incident at the start, Precious Passion is going to be the pacesetter in the Million. Whether he can carry his speed 1 1/4 miles against Grade 1 rivals while toting 126 lbs. remains to be seen. He did win the McKnight last year at Calder at 12 furlongs, relaxing kindly on the front end under jockey Elvis Trujillo. Lone speed runners get brave when left unoccupied on the lead. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that Precious Passion won’t do the same again today, especially when you consider his knack for accomplishing that exact task. Major question he must answer is if he can handle this soft going. That will be a tough task with the likes of Einstein and Gio Ponti, who have shown a fondness for that surface.
5 MR. SIDNEY
Despite all three of his turf wins coming at a flat mile in 2009, Mr. Sidney is an interesting entrant in the Arlington Million. He was allowed to drop too far behind on Feb. 21 at Gulfstream Park in a marathon turf route behind Presious Passion while adding blinkers. He closed with good energy in that contest, and nearly got the show, a strong effort all things considered. Back against Grade 1 company today at ten furlongs is unquestionably a tall order for him, but trainer Bill Mott has worked miracles on the grass in the past. He should at least make his presence felt with his typical race.
6 GIO PONTI
Since being transferred back to the lawn by trainer Christophe Clement as a four-year-old in 2009, Gio Ponti has done nothing but win. He captured the Frank Kilroe Handicap in March by a scant nose, signaling that his best game was definitely on grass. That victory was used as a springboard to capture the Grade 1 Manhattan Handicap at Belmont Park nearly three months later, and then the Grade 1 Man O’ War four weeks hence. Each victory did nothing but enhance his reputation as the best turf horse in North America. In his most recent win in New York, he sat closer to the lead, albeit tracking pedestrian fractions in the process. Regardless, his strong late kick was present, as he overhauled runners in the stretch to win going away. Gio Ponti is a star in the making, and he will go a long away towards solidifying that status with yet another victory in the Arlington Million. In this year’s renewal of the race, he catches a rather vulnerable field. The fact that he can adapt to any pace scenario that he is confronted with, and does have to carry his turf course around with him, makes him not only an obvious selection, but the right one! Handles soft footing well.
7 GLORIA DE CAMPEAO
This Brazilian-bred runner has not competed since a well-deserved head victory in Singapore last May, annexing the Group 1 Singapore Airlines International Cup under jockey Tiago Pereira. A winner in Dubai as well prior to that effort his presence today gives the Arlington Million a definite International flavor. Trained by Pascal Bary, Gloria De Campeao possesses versatile running styles, and he should have no trouble getting today’s 1 1/4 mile Million distance.
MORE BETTING ACTION
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 2 PURE CLAN is the heavy 8-5 favorite. Clearly the filly to beat, but she is overbet at those odds.
BEVERLEY D PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
MAD ABOUT YOU had a gleaming coat and looked extremely good. TIZAQUEENA also looked very sharp. PURE CLAN, a very big filly, was beginning to wash out slightly. POINTS OF GRACE, also a large filly, looked good despite a small amount of kidney sweat. BLACK MAMBA and DYNAFORCE both had bright and shiny coats. The others looked good.
NOTE: All 3 European imports are handling the heat very well.
NOTE: All 3 European imports are handling the heat very well.
RACE SEVEN TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
Longshot HOOSIER KINGDOM was allowed to set a slow pace but he was tracked by BLACK BEAR ISLAND and TAKE THE POINTS. BLACK BEAR ISLAND got first run on his rival when he drove to the lead on the stretch turn. TAKE THE POINTS engaged 'ISLAND at the top of the lane and wore him down in the last strides. LAUREATE CONDUCTOR edged OIL MAN for 3rd.
UPDATED WEATHER REPORT AND TRACK BIAS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
The rail is off on the Polytrack with horses racing on the outside clearly doing best. Tactical speed has been doing well Speed has held very well on the wet grass course, but the winners have been favorites who simply handled the going. It is very humid and hot, with blowing winds.
RACE EIGHT BETTING ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
The # 2 PURE CLAN, the clear cut 8-5 favorite on the open. Co-second choices # 4 BLACK MAMBA and # 5 MAD ABOUT YOU, both at 4-1.
*** RACE EIGHT ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
RACE 8
1 ALNADANA
French filly by the great Danehill had some problems earlier in the year but Alain Dupre has her in top form now. She comes off a dominant performance in a Group 3 stakes that she won under wraps. Normally a deep closer, she was on the lead all the way in that last win. Regular rider Christophe Soumillon comes along with her.
2 PURE CLAN
Impressive showing to win her Arlington Park grass debut on July 11. She sat a perfect stalking trip off the early pace, improving her position steadily leaving the far turn. She subsequently edged away in the stretch en route a very convincing victory. A veritable win machine, she looks well-placed to keep her unblemished record at AP intact. Her lone off-the-board effort at today's distance was in the Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf last year. She faces no such competition like that today and her recent works are indicative that another typical effort is in the offing with Leparoux, who seems to know her and ride her well.
3 POINTS OF GRACE
Employed frontrunning tactics to defeat a good field of runners in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly at Woodbine on July 11. She returns to the U.S. in an attempt to register back-to-back victories for trainer Malcolm Pierce, who is lethal with returning winners. She has shown that she can either set or stalk the early pace and has been a gem of consistency on grass. Dominguez rides.
4 BLACK MAMBA
Closed determinedly to post a dramatic head victory on June 28 at Hollywood Park, reuniting with jockey Garrett Gomez for that effort. Today, she heads east to Arlington Park for a contest that is also at 1 1/4 miles, the distance of her most recent win and a distance where she does well.
7 DYNAFORCE
Offered an improved 3rd-place finish behind Pure Clan July 11, her 3rd start off a long layoff. Appears to be slowly rounding back into her best form. She captured the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at Belmont Park in 2008. Projects to be on/near the lead from the outset.
RACE 8
1 ALNADANA
French filly by the great Danehill had some problems earlier in the year but Alain Dupre has her in top form now. She comes off a dominant performance in a Group 3 stakes that she won under wraps. Normally a deep closer, she was on the lead all the way in that last win. Regular rider Christophe Soumillon comes along with her.
2 PURE CLAN
Impressive showing to win her Arlington Park grass debut on July 11. She sat a perfect stalking trip off the early pace, improving her position steadily leaving the far turn. She subsequently edged away in the stretch en route a very convincing victory. A veritable win machine, she looks well-placed to keep her unblemished record at AP intact. Her lone off-the-board effort at today's distance was in the Breeder's Cup Filly and Mare Turf last year. She faces no such competition like that today and her recent works are indicative that another typical effort is in the offing with Leparoux, who seems to know her and ride her well.
3 POINTS OF GRACE
Employed frontrunning tactics to defeat a good field of runners in the Grade 2 Dance Smartly at Woodbine on July 11. She returns to the U.S. in an attempt to register back-to-back victories for trainer Malcolm Pierce, who is lethal with returning winners. She has shown that she can either set or stalk the early pace and has been a gem of consistency on grass. Dominguez rides.
4 BLACK MAMBA
Closed determinedly to post a dramatic head victory on June 28 at Hollywood Park, reuniting with jockey Garrett Gomez for that effort. Today, she heads east to Arlington Park for a contest that is also at 1 1/4 miles, the distance of her most recent win and a distance where she does well.
7 DYNAFORCE
Offered an improved 3rd-place finish behind Pure Clan July 11, her 3rd start off a long layoff. Appears to be slowly rounding back into her best form. She captured the Grade 1 Flower Bowl at Belmont Park in 2008. Projects to be on/near the lead from the outset.
BETTING ACTION
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
The 8 and 9 continue to be the ones the public are betting. Giant Oak, the home town favorite, is dead on the board at 6-1.
RACE SEVEN PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
REB looked fit and ready....really good. Big question is if he can handle the soft turf. TAKE THE POINTS also looked good. PROCEED BEE AND QUITE A HANDFUL were both washy. The others all looked OK.
RACE SIX TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
Favored ROMACACA sprinted into a clear lead immediately, controlled the pace and widened on them down the lane to win easily. AFTERNOON STROLL chased the runaway leader all the way and was able to hold off SENIGA for 2nd.
RACE SEVEN BETTING ACTION ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
THE GRADE 1 SECRETARIAT STAKES
# 8 REB and # 9 BLACK BEAR ISLAND are the clear 3-1 co-favorites. # 10 GIANT OAK, who was 3-1 on the morning line, is a bit dead on the board at 6-1 on the open.
# 8 REB and # 9 BLACK BEAR ISLAND are the clear 3-1 co-favorites. # 10 GIANT OAK, who was 3-1 on the morning line, is a bit dead on the board at 6-1 on the open.
*** RACE SEVEN ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
RACE 7
5 OIL MAN
The third-place finisher behind Reb on July 11, Oil Man has also flourished of late. He closed stoutly to just miss by a half-length in that race, and can move forward off that showing. He remained in Illinois after that contest, and has trained remarkably well. He will benefit from a rider upgrade to Garrett Gomez for trainer John Sadler.
7 TAKE THE POINTS
Has been close in both of his grass starts without winning. He was a strong third adding blinkers on July 18 in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. That day he was with the pace from the start and then continued on well in the stretch while beaten only a length. He looks to have a tactical edge over his chief rivals, and should enjoy a good stalking trip with a rider change to Kent Desormeaux, which may be just enough to get him over the hump.
8 REB
Young, lightly raced horses learn at varying rates during their racing careers, case in point, Reb. Since heading to Kentucky this spring after a winter campaign at Gulfstream Park, Reb sports a perfect 3 for 3 record on turf and dirt with the distances increasing with each victory. Reb’s win at Arlington on July 11 was visually impressive to say the least. Despite jockey Julien Leparoux’s prowess as a rider; Reb was never in a position to win the Grade 2 American Derby. Under a snug hold by Leparoux around the far turn and into the stretch, Reb lacked clear sailing while obviously ready to roll. In upper stretch, Reb was guided to the extreme outside by Leparoux. Once in the clear, he took off like a shot, settling suddenly past midstretch while closing like a runaway train to reel in the leader who looked absolutely home free with the finish line rapidly approaching. Needless to say, his trip line doesn’t do him justice. That kind of performance is a sign of better things to come. Any kind of trip by Reb should enable him to come away with another victory, as he seems to be a horse that drama is his constant companion in every score. But, when you win, nothing else matters.
10 GIANT OAK
He ran creditably behind Reb last out on July 11, his first start off a freshening while encountering a bit of trouble. He was victorious is his two prior starts at Arlington Park, and looks to exact his revenge on Reb today at today’s 1 1/4 mile distance with a clean trip. He has shown tactical speed in the past, and his outside post should not be that much of a hindrance. He has worked thrice since and now appears to be set for his best.
RACE 7
5 OIL MAN
The third-place finisher behind Reb on July 11, Oil Man has also flourished of late. He closed stoutly to just miss by a half-length in that race, and can move forward off that showing. He remained in Illinois after that contest, and has trained remarkably well. He will benefit from a rider upgrade to Garrett Gomez for trainer John Sadler.
7 TAKE THE POINTS
Has been close in both of his grass starts without winning. He was a strong third adding blinkers on July 18 in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. That day he was with the pace from the start and then continued on well in the stretch while beaten only a length. He looks to have a tactical edge over his chief rivals, and should enjoy a good stalking trip with a rider change to Kent Desormeaux, which may be just enough to get him over the hump.
8 REB
Young, lightly raced horses learn at varying rates during their racing careers, case in point, Reb. Since heading to Kentucky this spring after a winter campaign at Gulfstream Park, Reb sports a perfect 3 for 3 record on turf and dirt with the distances increasing with each victory. Reb’s win at Arlington on July 11 was visually impressive to say the least. Despite jockey Julien Leparoux’s prowess as a rider; Reb was never in a position to win the Grade 2 American Derby. Under a snug hold by Leparoux around the far turn and into the stretch, Reb lacked clear sailing while obviously ready to roll. In upper stretch, Reb was guided to the extreme outside by Leparoux. Once in the clear, he took off like a shot, settling suddenly past midstretch while closing like a runaway train to reel in the leader who looked absolutely home free with the finish line rapidly approaching. Needless to say, his trip line doesn’t do him justice. That kind of performance is a sign of better things to come. Any kind of trip by Reb should enable him to come away with another victory, as he seems to be a horse that drama is his constant companion in every score. But, when you win, nothing else matters.
10 GIANT OAK
He ran creditably behind Reb last out on July 11, his first start off a freshening while encountering a bit of trouble. He was victorious is his two prior starts at Arlington Park, and looks to exact his revenge on Reb today at today’s 1 1/4 mile distance with a clean trip. He has shown tactical speed in the past, and his outside post should not be that much of a hindrance. He has worked thrice since and now appears to be set for his best.
MORE BETTING ACTION
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 1 continues to take all the money in each pool. With 5 minutes to post, she is 8-5.
RACE SIX PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
ROMACACA had a blooming coat and looked good. AFTERNOON STROLL had a small amount of kidney sweat. TAILBYTHERAIL had a dull coat. The others looked OK.
RACE FIVE TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
SHAKE N QUAKE cut out a blazing pace with WINNING TALE just behind her and SHE BE WILD rating in 3rd. On the stretch turn SHE BE WILD swooped into the lead and proceded to dust the field with Alvarado wrapping up on her late. UPPERLINE made a late move to get 2nd ahead of SISTER RESISTOR. Catalano has a very nice filly here.
RACE SIX BETTING ACTION ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 1 ROMACACA opened up tyhe clear cut 7-5 favroite. Rest of the field is well spread out in price between 5-1 and 24-1.
NOTE: Race 6 is the start of a middle Pick 4 combining races 6-7-8-9
NOTE: Race 6 is the start of a middle Pick 4 combining races 6-7-8-9
*** RACE SIX ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
RACE 6
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
1 ROMANACCA
She is unbeaten in all four turf starts, two of which have come at Arlington Park. Sharp wire-to-wire win on July 11 with a fine ride by jockey Eddie Baird. Has demonstrated in the past that she does not like to yield the lead. Hustling tactics expected drawing the rail for Dan Miller, a "sneaky good" turf trainer.
2 FLEET STREAK
Filly might have moved prematurely on July 6 at Indiana. Slipped thru along the inside to get the lead, and then gave way grudgingly in the final yards. Needs her late kick to be timed to perfection to be most effective, especially at this advanced level. Lanerie ships in for the ride.
3 PRYTANIA
Finished a non-threatening seventh at Churchill on June 13, failing to lift a hoof in a paceless race. Closed well late to finish fourth over today's course in her prior start. Vast improvement expected with the drop in class with a much livelier pace scenario expected as well. Has picked up the pace in the morning as well and gets one of the best come-from-behind grass riders in the country in Ramon Dominguez.
5 AFTERNOON STROLL
She was dueled into defeat in the Grade 1 American Oaks on July 5, finishing a respectable 6th. She was a close-up 3rd to Prytania in her prior start and should bounce back with some much needed class relief today. Has proven that she is capable of either setting or stalking the pace. James Graham climbs aboard for trainer Timothy Hamm.
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
1 ROMANACCA
She is unbeaten in all four turf starts, two of which have come at Arlington Park. Sharp wire-to-wire win on July 11 with a fine ride by jockey Eddie Baird. Has demonstrated in the past that she does not like to yield the lead. Hustling tactics expected drawing the rail for Dan Miller, a "sneaky good" turf trainer.
2 FLEET STREAK
Filly might have moved prematurely on July 6 at Indiana. Slipped thru along the inside to get the lead, and then gave way grudgingly in the final yards. Needs her late kick to be timed to perfection to be most effective, especially at this advanced level. Lanerie ships in for the ride.
3 PRYTANIA
Finished a non-threatening seventh at Churchill on June 13, failing to lift a hoof in a paceless race. Closed well late to finish fourth over today's course in her prior start. Vast improvement expected with the drop in class with a much livelier pace scenario expected as well. Has picked up the pace in the morning as well and gets one of the best come-from-behind grass riders in the country in Ramon Dominguez.
5 AFTERNOON STROLL
She was dueled into defeat in the Grade 1 American Oaks on July 5, finishing a respectable 6th. She was a close-up 3rd to Prytania in her prior start and should bounce back with some much needed class relief today. Has proven that she is capable of either setting or stalking the pace. James Graham climbs aboard for trainer Timothy Hamm.
RACE FIVE PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
UPPERLINE had a shiny coat and looked the best of these. CHANTILLY NAYLA had a dull coat and was also fractious. GABBA GIRL did not look good. MAYTWOOSEVEN did not look good either and is adding front wraps. SURELY IRISH and SHAKE N QUAKE each looked fair. The others were OK.
RACE FOUR TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
THIS IS MY HOUSE was reluctant to load but broke sharply and took the lead immediately, closely pursued by OAK MOTTE and THE A. T. M. OAK MOTTE waited in 3rd then came out for the drive and won as if much the best. The other two pacesetters held on well for 2nd and 3rd. SKY TIGER, who along with HAKAMIAH missed the break, was a fast closing 4th.
MORE BETTING ACTION
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
The 1 entry and the # 4 are the big favorites in both the doubles and Pick 3's. Far back in price to the rest of the field.
RACE FIVE BETTING ACTION ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 4 UPPERLINE opened up the clear cut 2-1 favorite but is expected to drift up in price. The 1 entry opened up at 4-1, but will no doubt drop in price, as either one has a good chance to run well here.
*** RACE FIVE ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
RACE 5
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
1 WINNING TALE
The “other” half of the Calhoun entry improved noticeably in her second career start on July 23. Chased the pace once again, but finished with good energy to eventually draw clear late. Should sit a ground-saving trip breaking from the rail with Razo on board.
4 UPPERLINE
Maria’s Mon filly overcame a tardy break from post 1 to win going away on July 15. She sat a good trip after a slow start that day. Regardless, she was still able to sustain her rally past mid-stretch and slowly drew clear. Has continued to train exceptionally well in the interim. Loses Hamilton to Deceptive Glory but gets Garrett Gomez.
1A DECEPTIVE GLORY (post 6)
She was a professional, yet decisive winner to begin her career when well-meant over this track on July 4. Relaxing nicely behind the early pacesetters, she accelerated quickly to split runners to reach contention in the stretch. She then generated a noteworthy burst of late speed to draw clear in very fast time, leaving behind a subsequent next-out winner. That was a remarkable showing all things considered for a two-year-old filly without any racing experience. That performance should set her up perfectly for her initial start vs. winners while stretching out to seven furlongs. Trainer Bret Calhoun has pumped three works her into since that sparkling effort, and she projects to sit a 'mirror like' trip yet again with Quincy Hamilton returning.
6 SHAKE N QUAKE (post 7)
Has run well in both starts at AP. With a change in tactics on July 11 she set all of the pace and then quickly drew clear in deep stretch to score by 4+ lengths. An ability to run well without the lead should serve her well today. Maintains her current level of sharpness since then and switches to Dominguez today.
8 SISTER RESISTOR (post 9)
Steps up and switches to Polytrack today. Overcame a bit of a wide trip in her debut on the turf at Ellis Park when well-backed to score by daylight. Has a "good bottom" as she turns back in distance vs. a field that is suspect at seven furlongs. Gets a good come-from-behind rider in Kent D.
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
1 WINNING TALE
The “other” half of the Calhoun entry improved noticeably in her second career start on July 23. Chased the pace once again, but finished with good energy to eventually draw clear late. Should sit a ground-saving trip breaking from the rail with Razo on board.
4 UPPERLINE
Maria’s Mon filly overcame a tardy break from post 1 to win going away on July 15. She sat a good trip after a slow start that day. Regardless, she was still able to sustain her rally past mid-stretch and slowly drew clear. Has continued to train exceptionally well in the interim. Loses Hamilton to Deceptive Glory but gets Garrett Gomez.
1A DECEPTIVE GLORY (post 6)
She was a professional, yet decisive winner to begin her career when well-meant over this track on July 4. Relaxing nicely behind the early pacesetters, she accelerated quickly to split runners to reach contention in the stretch. She then generated a noteworthy burst of late speed to draw clear in very fast time, leaving behind a subsequent next-out winner. That was a remarkable showing all things considered for a two-year-old filly without any racing experience. That performance should set her up perfectly for her initial start vs. winners while stretching out to seven furlongs. Trainer Bret Calhoun has pumped three works her into since that sparkling effort, and she projects to sit a 'mirror like' trip yet again with Quincy Hamilton returning.
6 SHAKE N QUAKE (post 7)
Has run well in both starts at AP. With a change in tactics on July 11 she set all of the pace and then quickly drew clear in deep stretch to score by 4+ lengths. An ability to run well without the lead should serve her well today. Maintains her current level of sharpness since then and switches to Dominguez today.
8 SISTER RESISTOR (post 9)
Steps up and switches to Polytrack today. Overcame a bit of a wide trip in her debut on the turf at Ellis Park when well-backed to score by daylight. Has a "good bottom" as she turns back in distance vs. a field that is suspect at seven furlongs. Gets a good come-from-behind rider in Kent D.
MORE BETTING ACTION WITH 5 MINUTES TO GO
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 10 continues to be bet heavy in all pools as the clear cut favorite. none of the 1st timers are showing the kind of action I like to see on a very "live" horse making their debut.
RACE FOUR PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 10 OAK MOTTE had a gleaming coat and looked sharp. # 8 DOWN WITH DIXIE had a dull coat and # 9 LAUGHING CHARLIE exhibited some kidney sweat. The others looked OK.
RACE THREE TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
CONCHACER broke on top but was content to press FUFTY TOO who wanted the lead on the rail. CONCHACER got a head in front inside the furlong pole then gradually increased his advantage. HIS GREATNESS rated in 4th on the outside then closed steadily to edge a game FUFTY TOO for 2nd.
RACE FOUR BETTING ACTION ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 10 OAK MOTTE is the clear favorite at 5-2 with the other 10 well spread out in the betting. He is the heavy favorite in the doubles and Pick 3's.
*** RACE FOUR ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
RACE 4
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
1 SKY TIGER
Homebred first timer is by strong debut sire Sky Mesa. Trainer Jeff Thornbury is quite proficient with MSW debut runners. He hails from a winning family, his dam having already produced a juvenile first-out winner. Sports a steady, well-spaced workout regimen at Keeneland. May just leave the gate running with Leparoux.
10 OAK MOTTE
Comes off an encouraging outing in his well bet/well meant career debut. He held well while chasing a decisive daylight winner who has since returned to win again. He was reported to have bled in the race and returns with Lasix. This is a deadly move for trainer Tom Amoss. Recent near-bullet work on July 30 is indicative that he is primed for another good effort.
11 THE A. T. M.
Encouraging effort to begin his career on June 21. He was one-paced throughout and finished third despite racing greenly in the stretch. He will benefit from that experience and profit from the rider switch to Fernando Jara as well.
12 THIS IS MY HOUSE
Colt from the first crop of Limehouse debuts off a solid work tab for Mike Stidham. He shows 9 works in less than 9 weeks with several 5F stamina drills. Stidham, who is having his usual 20%+ meet, has positive stats with first timers. Will receive Lasix and should get a good trip from the open outside post.
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
1 SKY TIGER
Homebred first timer is by strong debut sire Sky Mesa. Trainer Jeff Thornbury is quite proficient with MSW debut runners. He hails from a winning family, his dam having already produced a juvenile first-out winner. Sports a steady, well-spaced workout regimen at Keeneland. May just leave the gate running with Leparoux.
10 OAK MOTTE
Comes off an encouraging outing in his well bet/well meant career debut. He held well while chasing a decisive daylight winner who has since returned to win again. He was reported to have bled in the race and returns with Lasix. This is a deadly move for trainer Tom Amoss. Recent near-bullet work on July 30 is indicative that he is primed for another good effort.
11 THE A. T. M.
Encouraging effort to begin his career on June 21. He was one-paced throughout and finished third despite racing greenly in the stretch. He will benefit from that experience and profit from the rider switch to Fernando Jara as well.
12 THIS IS MY HOUSE
Colt from the first crop of Limehouse debuts off a solid work tab for Mike Stidham. He shows 9 works in less than 9 weeks with several 5F stamina drills. Stidham, who is having his usual 20%+ meet, has positive stats with first timers. Will receive Lasix and should get a good trip from the open outside post.
UPDATED WEATHER REPORT
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
It's hot and humid as the day goes on. There is a good tail wind down the backstretch. Both dirt races have been won by horses racing along the outside paths.
RACE THREE PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 2 FLUFFY TOO, # 4 DYNAMITE BOB and # 5 CONCHACER all displayed gleaming coats in the paddock. The others all looked good as well, but those 3 looked best.
RACE TWO TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
RED NATION and TWO BEE hooked up in a wicked pace duel through a :44 2/5 half mile. TWO BEE got the edge on the stretch turn but raced a bit erratically while tiring. Perfect tripper SPANISH BARON swooped by on the outside for the win with LAST WOMPUS making a late move between horses to get the place. Favored GALLOPING GULCH was along late for 3rd.
RACE THREE BETTING ACTION ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 2 FUFTY TOO and # 6 HIS GREATNESS opened up the co 2-1 favorites. The 4 other horses are spread out from 4-1 to 10-1. # 5 CONCHACER, 5-2 on the morning line, opened up at 7-1, which is a bit cold on the board, but figures to drop for the always dangerous Dale Bennett stable. # 2 is the favorite in the doubles, with # 3 close behind.
*** RACE THREE ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
RACE 3
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
2 FUFTY TOO
Finished a sharp second on grass at Canterbury on July 3. He stalked, and then disputed the lead, finishing gamely to miss by only a neck. Returns to AP and Polytrack today. He boasts a fitness edge over his main rivals while back at his home base. He won his lone effort over this track. Shorter distance and the return of jockey Chris Emigh are definite pluses.
3 RETAP
Returns from a layoff, obviously shelved due to some type of ailment. Atypical effort at Oaklawn necessitated the layoff. He was a strong second on Polytrack at Turfway Park last fall. Has fine tactical speed when in the mood and has worked steadily for his comeback at AP since June.
5 CONCHACER
Another returning vacationer. Flashed brief speed at Prairie Meadows on June 26 and then succumbed badly. Drops in class while turning back to a sprint for high % trainer Dale Bennett who excels with this maneuver. He makes his all-weather debut today. Has handled the Arlington Park surface in the AM and gets Graham.
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
2 FUFTY TOO
Finished a sharp second on grass at Canterbury on July 3. He stalked, and then disputed the lead, finishing gamely to miss by only a neck. Returns to AP and Polytrack today. He boasts a fitness edge over his main rivals while back at his home base. He won his lone effort over this track. Shorter distance and the return of jockey Chris Emigh are definite pluses.
3 RETAP
Returns from a layoff, obviously shelved due to some type of ailment. Atypical effort at Oaklawn necessitated the layoff. He was a strong second on Polytrack at Turfway Park last fall. Has fine tactical speed when in the mood and has worked steadily for his comeback at AP since June.
5 CONCHACER
Another returning vacationer. Flashed brief speed at Prairie Meadows on June 26 and then succumbed badly. Drops in class while turning back to a sprint for high % trainer Dale Bennett who excels with this maneuver. He makes his all-weather debut today. Has handled the Arlington Park surface in the AM and gets Graham.
MORE BETTING ACTION
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
The # 6 just got hit from 8-5 to 6-5 and hammered in the exactas with 3 minutes to go.
RACE TWO PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
GALLOPING GULCH looked very sharp, the best of the lot. Favorite CROWNED ROYAL was slightly nervous in the paddock. The others all looked good
MORE BETTING ACTION RACE 2
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 6 continues to be the clear favorite at 8-5 with 6 minutes to go. He is also the clear choice in all pools.
RACE ONE TRIP NOTES
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
In a virtual match race GENERAL CHARLEY was pressed all the way by the 4-5 favorite WICKED STYLE through solid fractions. 'CHARLEY held on with dogged determination and 'STYLE only got a head in front in the final strides. CABERNEIGH was a non-threatening 3rd and the others were far back. Fine effort by the runner up.
RACE TWO BETTING ACTION ON THE OPEN
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 6 CROWNED ROYAL, the morning line favorite, opened up at 2-1. He is the clear choice in the early betting. Top rider Leparoux is the replacement rider for Garrett Gomez on Crowned Royal. Leparoux going for a sweep of the early double.
NOTE: Race 2 is the start of the early Pick 4, (races 2-3-4-5)
NOTE: Race 2 is the start of the early Pick 4, (races 2-3-4-5)
*** RACE TWO ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
RACE 2
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
# 4 RED NATION
Comes off a fine front running score July 5. Dictated all of the pace and held well in a much-improved effort. Gets a vote of confidence stepping up to the $50,000 claiming level. He can be the controlling speed in a race lacking much in the way of early pace from a good post. Shows three maintenance type works since.
# 5 SPANISH BARON
Reported home one length behind Crowned Royal on July 19 when adding both fronts and Lasix. He finished with interest late without clear sailing in the stretch run. Can obviously move forward with a clean trip. Gets a rider upgrade to James Graham.
# 6 CROWNED ROYAL
Just failed to last on July 19 despite an eventful trip. He was a very bad actor in the starting gate just prior to the break. Leveled off nicely leaving the far turn, but raced extremely wide while making his rally, losing by only a scant nose. Cuts back in distance with a rider switch to Gomez.
# 7 TWO BEE
Tired slowly behind two of these on July 19, weakening under pressure in deep stretch. Today's shorter distance should suit him, as his only career win was at six furlongs at Arlington Park with Emigh up.
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
# 4 RED NATION
Comes off a fine front running score July 5. Dictated all of the pace and held well in a much-improved effort. Gets a vote of confidence stepping up to the $50,000 claiming level. He can be the controlling speed in a race lacking much in the way of early pace from a good post. Shows three maintenance type works since.
# 5 SPANISH BARON
Reported home one length behind Crowned Royal on July 19 when adding both fronts and Lasix. He finished with interest late without clear sailing in the stretch run. Can obviously move forward with a clean trip. Gets a rider upgrade to James Graham.
# 6 CROWNED ROYAL
Just failed to last on July 19 despite an eventful trip. He was a very bad actor in the starting gate just prior to the break. Leveled off nicely leaving the far turn, but raced extremely wide while making his rally, losing by only a scant nose. Cuts back in distance with a rider switch to Gomez.
# 7 TWO BEE
Tired slowly behind two of these on July 19, weakening under pressure in deep stretch. Today's shorter distance should suit him, as his only career win was at six furlongs at Arlington Park with Emigh up.
MORE BETTING ACTION
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 2 continues to take all the cash at even money. Co-second choice # 1 and # 6 both at 2-1 with 2 minuters to post.
PADDOCK OBSERVATIONS AND WARM UPS RACE ONE
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
NOTE: I am in the paddock all day.
# 1 on his toes with a nice coat. # 6 has some kidney sweat. # 4 has a very dull coat. The other 2 look fine.
# 1 on his toes with a nice coat. # 6 has some kidney sweat. # 4 has a very dull coat. The other 2 look fine.
MORE BETTING ACTION RACE ONE
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
With 14 minutes to go, # 2 has drifted up to even money, with the 1 and 6 the co second choices at 2-1. Favorite is still overbet.
RACE ONE BETTING ACTION
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
# 2 WICKED STYLE is the heavy favorite at 3-5, despite having little form on a wet turf course. Clearly overbet. # 1 GENERAL CHARLEY and # 6 CABERNEIGH are the clear second choices at 5-2 in this small 5 horse field.
*** RACE ONE ANALYSIS ***
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
RACE 1
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
# 1 GENERAL CHARLEY
7yo exits the same race as Wicked Style. Raced evenly that day to finish fifth. He is obviously capable of much better and has since come back to work an eye-catching four furlongs. Usually performs well over this turf course. Also has proven form over wet turf. Draws the rail and jockey E. E. Perez.
# 2 WICKED STYLE
Returned from a layoff to run a strong second in his Arlington Park debut on July 16. Despite setting and/or disputing deliberate fractions, he was unable to quicken when the pace accelerated late. With that effort under his belt he will obviously be much fitter today. His lone win on grass came from slightly off-the-pace, and he may revert to rating tactics once again today reuniting with jockey Julien Leparoux. He has worked twice since for trainer George Arnold and draws a cozy inside post. In addition, the fact that he stretches out a bit in distance to 1 1/16 miles also enhances his chances, as his lone grass score at Gulfstream Park this winter was at nine furlongs.
# 6 CABERNEIGH
Finished a strong third behind Wicked Style on July 16. He closed with interest despite a lack of pace from a tough outside post to take down the show. He should also appreciate today's extra distance making his second start off-the-bench. Fits well at this level with Junior Alvarado aboard.
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.
# 1 GENERAL CHARLEY
7yo exits the same race as Wicked Style. Raced evenly that day to finish fifth. He is obviously capable of much better and has since come back to work an eye-catching four furlongs. Usually performs well over this turf course. Also has proven form over wet turf. Draws the rail and jockey E. E. Perez.
# 2 WICKED STYLE
Returned from a layoff to run a strong second in his Arlington Park debut on July 16. Despite setting and/or disputing deliberate fractions, he was unable to quicken when the pace accelerated late. With that effort under his belt he will obviously be much fitter today. His lone win on grass came from slightly off-the-pace, and he may revert to rating tactics once again today reuniting with jockey Julien Leparoux. He has worked twice since for trainer George Arnold and draws a cozy inside post. In addition, the fact that he stretches out a bit in distance to 1 1/16 miles also enhances his chances, as his lone grass score at Gulfstream Park this winter was at nine furlongs.
# 6 CABERNEIGH
Finished a strong third behind Wicked Style on July 16. He closed with interest despite a lack of pace from a tough outside post to take down the show. He should also appreciate today's extra distance making his second start off-the-bench. Fits well at this level with Junior Alvarado aboard.
SATURDAY SCRATCHES & CHANGES AT ARLINGTON
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
Program Changes
Arlington Park Saturday, August 8, 2009
Updated: 10:30 AM Weather : 85* Cloudy
Polytrack: FAST Turf: YIELDING
(All Post Times are approximate & Central Time Zone)
RACE 1 Post Time 12:15 PM
NO SUPERFECTA
Scratch # 3 – KiddoScratch # 7 – Starspangled Gator
RACE 2 Post Time 12:42 PM
RACE 3 Post Time 1:09PM
Scratch # 7 – Edopapaas Ekepapas
RACE 4 Post Time 1:37 PM
Scratch # 5 – Leroidugazon
RACE 5 Post Time 2:05 PM
Scratch # 11 – Richiesgirlgotgame
RACE 6 Post Time 2:34 PM
Scratch # 4 – CumulonimbleScratch # 10 – Romin RobinScratch
# 11 – Super PoniScratch # 13 – Always In My Heart
RACE 7 Post Time 3:05 PM
Scratch # 1a – Driving Snow
RACE 8 Post Time 3:52 PM
RACE 9 Post Time 4:42 PM (No Guarantee on the Turf Trifecta)
Scratch # 9 – Recapturetheglory
RACE 10 Post Time 5:20 PM
Scratch # 1 – Bar Babe
RACE 11 Post Time 5:50 PM
RACE 12 Post Time 6:18 PM
Scratch # 3 – Inbetween Rainbows Scratch # 14 – Ming Sling Jockey Change # 6 - TBA
Arlington Park Saturday, August 8, 2009
Updated: 10:30 AM Weather : 85* Cloudy
Polytrack: FAST Turf: YIELDING
(All Post Times are approximate & Central Time Zone)
RACE 1 Post Time 12:15 PM
NO SUPERFECTA
Scratch # 3 – KiddoScratch # 7 – Starspangled Gator
RACE 2 Post Time 12:42 PM
RACE 3 Post Time 1:09PM
Scratch # 7 – Edopapaas Ekepapas
RACE 4 Post Time 1:37 PM
Scratch # 5 – Leroidugazon
RACE 5 Post Time 2:05 PM
Scratch # 11 – Richiesgirlgotgame
RACE 6 Post Time 2:34 PM
Scratch # 4 – CumulonimbleScratch # 10 – Romin RobinScratch
# 11 – Super PoniScratch # 13 – Always In My Heart
RACE 7 Post Time 3:05 PM
Scratch # 1a – Driving Snow
RACE 8 Post Time 3:52 PM
RACE 9 Post Time 4:42 PM (No Guarantee on the Turf Trifecta)
Scratch # 9 – Recapturetheglory
RACE 10 Post Time 5:20 PM
Scratch # 1 – Bar Babe
RACE 11 Post Time 5:50 PM
RACE 12 Post Time 6:18 PM
Scratch # 3 – Inbetween Rainbows Scratch # 14 – Ming Sling Jockey Change # 6 - TBA
WHAT LIVEWITHTHEWIZARD WILL PROVIDE YOU AND MY PRODUCY LINE
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
LIVEWITHTHEWIZARD AT ARLINGTON (Aug 8, Million Day)
Livewiththewizard is a new concept, which provides the player “real time information”. In order to win in this game, it is imperative that you are kept abreast of anything that can help you win money. What I will provide you today are my contenders for each race placed in POST POSITION ORDER. These are not MY SELECTIONS! Weather reports, changing track conditions, betting action, bias information, paddock observations, equipment changes, late scratches, trip notes and horses to watch back the next time they run. Anything else I see, you will know. This is the purpose of “livewiththewizard”. It is not a selection sheet. My products are sold through brisnet.com at very affordable prices. Below is a listing of my product line. Not only do I give you selections, but I give you detailed information on why I like that particular horse for every product.
THE WIZARD’S PRODUCT LINE
(Phone 800-354-9206 to become a Wizard Customer or sign up quickly on-line at brisnet.com)
I offer Wizard Daily Selections for all the major race tracks from around the country. At the present time, I am covering Arlington, Belmont, Churchill, Calder, Delaware, Hollywood Park, Monmouth, and Philadelphia Park (Mondays and Tuesday’s only). *** ALL SELECTION SHEETS ARE ONLY $6.00 ***
My Pick of the Day includes in depth analysis, comments & wagering strategies on the one race which the Wizard has selected as his Pick of The Day. *** $6.00 ***
The Simulcast Best Bets sheets are The Wizard's strongest plays from tracks around the country, compiled into one easy-to-use report. Includes The Wizard's Pick of the Day FREE OF CHARGE! *** $10.00 ***
My Pick 3 / Pick 6 and Trifecta sheet includes these “exotic wagers” as well as Pick 6 wagering strategies from major tracks around the country, all in one report. At least 9 plays in total, with a focus on New York & California. *** $10.00 ***.
I also offer the Superfecta play of the day. Expert advice on the new 10 cent Superfecta wager. Includes in-depth analysis and wagers on the race the Wizard has deemed the best wagering opportunity from tracks in So. California, Kentucky, Chicago and more. Available Wed. - Sun. *** $5.00 ***
Livewiththewizard is a new concept, which provides the player “real time information”. In order to win in this game, it is imperative that you are kept abreast of anything that can help you win money. What I will provide you today are my contenders for each race placed in POST POSITION ORDER. These are not MY SELECTIONS! Weather reports, changing track conditions, betting action, bias information, paddock observations, equipment changes, late scratches, trip notes and horses to watch back the next time they run. Anything else I see, you will know. This is the purpose of “livewiththewizard”. It is not a selection sheet. My products are sold through brisnet.com at very affordable prices. Below is a listing of my product line. Not only do I give you selections, but I give you detailed information on why I like that particular horse for every product.
THE WIZARD’S PRODUCT LINE
(Phone 800-354-9206 to become a Wizard Customer or sign up quickly on-line at brisnet.com)
I offer Wizard Daily Selections for all the major race tracks from around the country. At the present time, I am covering Arlington, Belmont, Churchill, Calder, Delaware, Hollywood Park, Monmouth, and Philadelphia Park (Mondays and Tuesday’s only). *** ALL SELECTION SHEETS ARE ONLY $6.00 ***
My Pick of the Day includes in depth analysis, comments & wagering strategies on the one race which the Wizard has selected as his Pick of The Day. *** $6.00 ***
The Simulcast Best Bets sheets are The Wizard's strongest plays from tracks around the country, compiled into one easy-to-use report. Includes The Wizard's Pick of the Day FREE OF CHARGE! *** $10.00 ***
My Pick 3 / Pick 6 and Trifecta sheet includes these “exotic wagers” as well as Pick 6 wagering strategies from major tracks around the country, all in one report. At least 9 plays in total, with a focus on New York & California. *** $10.00 ***.
I also offer the Superfecta play of the day. Expert advice on the new 10 cent Superfecta wager. Includes in-depth analysis and wagers on the race the Wizard has deemed the best wagering opportunity from tracks in So. California, Kentucky, Chicago and more. Available Wed. - Sun. *** $5.00 ***
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MILLION DAY
by The Wizard on Saturday, August 08, 2009
The Chicago weather forecasters were incorrect in reporting the weather forecast for Friday and Saturday at Arlington. They did not predict as much rain as they got. It poured from early afternoon on Friday until Saturday morning. The polytrack is soaked, and the grass course is expected to be "SOFT". At best the turf could be listed as "GOOD", but that is unlikely. There could be a bias on the poly, which I will update you on throughout the day. At 8:30 AM central time Saturday, it is muggy and overcast. The forecast is for the temperature to rise into the low 90's, but they predicted the heat to be similar on Friday and they were dead wrong.
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