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FINAL TRACK BIAS AND HORSE TO WATCH
TRACK BIAS

Polytrack: Favored stalkers and closers at all distances.

Turf sprints: Fair
Turf routes: Favored closers.


HORSE TO WATCH

7th LUNAR MIST is a very promising filly for Chris Block. She was rank from the beginning, rated behind the leaders in 3rd, moved quickly to the lead despite veering in badly. Once straight she bounded clear. Her breeding and way of going indicate that she should love a route of ground.
TRIP NOTES RACE ELEVEN
#11 MOJITO MAN tracked #9 BULLET FROM ABROAD early, looked that one in the eye at the quarter pole and took the lead. He held a clear lead to the wire. 'ABROAD was able to hold on for the place. #7 BROOKS STAR rated in 4th, came out and finished well for 3rd.
PADDOCK RACE ELEVEN
These veterans all looked ok.
BETTING RACE ELEVEN
#9 BULLET FROM ABROAD is an overwhelming favorite, 4-5 with 10 minutes to post.
TRIP NOTES RACE TEN
The turf course had favored closers but not this time. Favored #1 TAZZ took the early lead but was soon headed by #4 AGNOSTIC. The latter opened a lead in the lane and held on tenaciously for the win. #1 TAZZ held on for 2nd but could not stay with the winner. #3 WEGGIE rated in 5th on the rail, gained steadily down the lane to get 3rd.
ANALYSIS RACE ELEVEN
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 11

2 WHO LET THE CAT IN
Honest 5yo has yet to finish out of the money in 2009 for trainer Richard Scherer while winning 5 of 9 starts. Is well managed allowing for top efforts each race and, although all have come on the dirt, he can score sprinting on the turf today with Razo up.

3 HAPMAN
Toss his last after a poor break but he posted a game second and a win in his previous two starts, both sprinting over this course. Positive rider change today and certainly can prove a factor.

9 BULLET FROM ABROAD
5yo is a perfect 3 for 3 sprinting on the turf here since moving to the barn of Mike Dini, all while facing quality company. Meets a lot of other speed today but still must be considered the main threat.

11 MOJITO MAN
Ran a big race when stepped up to face a 2nd tier allowance field at this distance. He set a fast pace and held well for the place. Strong contender with the move back into a starters allowance.
PADDOCK RACE TEN
All looked good.
BETTING RACE TEN
With 13 minutes to post #1 TAZZ has been hammered down to even money.
TRIP NOTES RACE NINE
This race was set up fpr the closers when #3 JONI'S JUSTICE and #6 PISTOL PETE AFLEET dueled though a fast half mile. #2 EIGHTEENTHOFMARCH rated in 4th after a half mile, took the lead when the leaders began to tire then was able to hold off #5 RAVENSWORTH. The latter was far back early, came widest on the turn and was getting to the winner at the wire. #9 REY DEL SOL came from far back to get 3rd.
ANALYSIS RACE TEN
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 10
1 TAZZ
3yo has done little wrong for trainer Christine Janks, finishing worse then second only once while winning 2 of 5. Beaten a neck under these same conditions last out but can return to the winner's circle with blinkers off and Emigh riding.

4 AGNOSTIC
3yo was purchased privately since his last start and is now in the Catalano barn. The Cat Man does even better with private acquisitions than he does with new claims. Covered the final quarter in :22 4/5 over this course two starts back.

6 EAT N RUN
4yo ran well on the turf here last summer and returned from a year absence in late July to score back to back wins for Neil Pessin. Can take another step forward today in that crucial third start back.

8 FULL FLAME
3yo has continued to improve since stretching out on the turf here this summer and turned in a career best last out despite missing by 3/4 length. Back at the same conditions today and a major player with Alvarado.
PADDOCK RACE NINE
#6 PISTOL PETE AFLEET adds the four wraps that came off for his last start. #10 TONY TERRIFIC looks terrific, others ok.
BETTING RACE NINE
With 19 minutes to post #10 TONY TERRIFIC has been bet from 8-1 down to the 2-1 favorite. M/L choice #6 PISTOL PETE AFLEET is 11-1.
TRIP NOTES RACE EIGHT
#1 DREAMINOFJOSEPHINE was hustled to the front immediately by Baird, maintained a clear lead throughout and won as if much the best. She was chased all the way by #4 COUNT THE CHANGE and #5 SPUNKY MONKEY with 'MONKEY winning the photo for place.
ANALYSIS RACE NINE
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 9

2 EIGHTEENTHOFMARCH
5yo was claimed by Catalano following a game win at a level lower. The Cat Man wins at a rather amazing 55% clip when raising his new acquisitions in class. Recorded his career best over this turf course as a 3yo.

3 JONI’S JUSTICE
6yo posted a career best around two turns on the turf this spring while in the barn of Hugh Robertson then continued to run well all summer, winning stake in July at Canterbury. He can prove a factor here at a good price.

6 PISTOL PETE AFLEET
4yo colt has been a consistent performer the past two years on the synthetic surfaces in California but also showed ability on the turf last fall. He makes his first start today for Daniel Smithwick, who excels with new acquisitions and is the choice for the win back on the grass.

8 KING OF SPEED
10yo is still going strong for trainer Bret Calhoun and, although has made only two starts on the turf since end of last year, he has won both including over this course last out for this same tag. Razo stays and must respect.
PADDOCK RACE EIGHT
The 2yo fillies all looked good.
BETTING RACE EIGHT
Nothing unusual about the betting with 12 minutes to post. #1 DREAMINOFJOSEPHINE is favored at 6-5 as expected.
TRIP NOTES RACE SEVEN
#5 LUNAR MIST is a very promising filly for Chris Block. She was rank from the beginning, rated behind the leaders in 3rd, moved quickly to the lead despite lugging in badly. Once straight she bounded clear. Should love a route of ground. #2 IDEALHOUSE and #7 MISS JENNIFER closed from behind for the minor placings. #4 FIGHTING JO JO set a strong pace, opened up while still in hand but tired after being headed by the winner.
ANALYSIS RACE EIGHT
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 8

1 DREAMINOFJOSEPHINE
Although the race came off the grass here last out this filly still turned in her best effort, finishing a game second in her first start since moving to the Canani barn. Sharp work since and a major player today with Baird back.

5 SPUNKY MONKEY
Forest Danger filly debuts sprinting on the turf for trainer Michael Stidham who hits over 20% with first time starters. Has shown plenty of ability in the morning and merits respect with Castanon riding.

7 BESITOS
2yo Greatness filly makes her career debut today for trainer Raja Malek and was also bred by her owners Edward, Krista and Amy Seltzer. Filly makes her first trip to the post sprinting on the turf and, although the barn has had a limited amount of first time starters this year, they are at their best with horses running on the grass. This filly has the breeding to excel at the 5F distance on the grass and the barn has prepared her well with a steady work tab in which she has also shown ability. Graham aboard is only a positive sign that she is well meant.
PADDOCK RACE SEVEN
First timers #4 FIGHTING JO JO and #5 LUNAR MIST both look sharp, others ok.
BETTING RACE SEVEN
With 13 minutes to post #5 FIGHTING JO JO, 2nd choice on the line, is the strong 3-2 favorite. M/L favorite #2 IDEALHOUSE is 8-1.
TRIP NOTES RACE SIX
#5 ALL TANKED UP raced behind the leaders in 5th, came wide for the stretch run and got the win in the final jump. #2 OFFICER FRANK in a very game effort, set a pressured pace, held a narrow lead down the lane but was nailed on the wire. #6 EXECUTIVE COACH also closed well between horses and was beaten just a neck for all the money. #4 WAKEUPBRANDON found room on the rail to rally from far back. He finished 4th in a blanket finish.
ANALYSIS RACE SEVEN
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 7

2 IDEAL HOUSE
2yo LImehouse filly has turned in solid efforts in both of her career starts here at Arlington for trainer Steve Asmussen. Lands in a good spot for her third outing today and a major player. Castanon up.

4 FIGHTING JO JO
Distorted Humor filly was bred by owner Frank Calabrese and makes her career debut today for trainer Nick Canani. Filly has worked well and has the breeding and connections to fire at first asking with Baird.

5 LUNAR MIST
Malibu Moon filly debuts for Chris Block who always has his 2yo's ready to fire at first asking. Has been well prepared with a steady work tab over this strip and must be considered a contender today.
MID-DAY TRACK BIAS REPORT
The polytrack has favored stalkers and closers. The yielding turf course favors closers.
PADDOCK RACE SIX
#2 OFFICER FRANK looks best of these. #3 SHARP TRICK was a bit dull, others ok.
BETTING RACE SIX
With 13 minutes to post the betting is orderly with #6 EXECUTIVE the 5-2 favorite as expected.
TRIP NOTES RACE FIVE
When the early leaders, #10 HALFA TONA ORNERY and #9 ZYANARA, cut out fractions of :23 and :46.2 you knew the closers would get the cheese. #8 CLICKER rated in 6th, moved out 4-wide on the turn and outgamed #11 CANARY KID. 'KID trailed the field early, came with a big 5-wide move to challenge for the lead but was outfinished. #3 MING GLO ns #7 WILD COMEDY, also far back early, dead-heated for 3rd.
ANALYSIS RACE SIX
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 6

4 WAKEUPBRANDON
Hit the board in 3 of 4 sprinting at this level before being compromised by a troubled trip last out. More then capable of rebounding for a share today reuniting with Karlsson.

6 EXECUTIVE COACH
3yo has done little wrong here at Arlington, finishing in the money in all 7 starts while scoring 2 wins for trainer James DiVito. Must be considered a major player against this group with Sanchez back aboard.

8 BIG SIX
Moved to allowance company here last out in his first start since moving to the barn of Wayne Catalano and, despite stumbling at the break, he still beat over half the field. Bullet drill since and, with the turn back to 5F and Castanon up, is the one to beat.
PADDOCK RACE FIVE
These bottom-level conditioned claimers all looked ok.
BETTING RACE FIVE
With 13 minutes to post there is no unusual betting activity and #2 LEOPOLD BLOOM is the 5-2 favorite.
ANALYSIS RACE FIVE
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 5

2 LEOPOLD BLOOM
3yo from the barn of John Good just missed at this mile trip here last month and, with the drop in half today, must be considered a contender with Karlsson aboard.

6 GLORY CREEK
Has been consistent this year for Steve Hobby and has run well enough in his last two here at this mile distance to be considered today dropping in half.

8 CLICKER
3yo wasn't as effective turning back to a sprint here last out in his third start off the layoff for trainer Steve Asmussen. Stretches back out to a mile now where has hit the board in 4 of 5 including a game effort here two back. Can contend on the drop.
TRIP NOTES RACE FOUR
Making just her 3rd lifetimer start, #8 PEACEFUL BATTLE rated in 5th, came around the leaders on the stretch turn then drew clear to win with authority. #5 SOUTHERN WONDER trailed the field early, looped the field with a 6-wide move on the turn and got the place in the final jump. #E EXPLOIT THE SUN was near the back to the stretch then found room on the inside to rally and just lost the place photo.
PADDOCK RACE FOUR
#8 PEACEFUL BATTLE looks sharp, others are all ok.
BETTING RACE FOUR
With 17 minutes to post #6 STORMY APRIL has been bet from 12-1 down to 4-1.
TRIP NOTES RACE THREE
#1 PRINCEVILLE CONDO rated in 3rd along the inside, then drove through a big hole along the rail that looked like the parting of the Red Sea. Graham drove him into a clear lead and he won handily. #5 LUCKMAN trailed the field early, followed the winner through the gaping hole on the inside to finish a clear 2nd.
ANALYSIS RACE FOUR
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 4

1 WHATA TATTLE TALE
3yo filly scored a game maiden win on the turf here last out in only her second try on the surface and first around two turns. Keeps Graham in the irons today and can expect to see another good effort.

2 EXPLOIT THE SUN
5yo mare was moved to the barn of trainer Mike Reavis in late June and has turned in three strong efforts on the lawn here including a close second last out. She’s given the edge today with the added ground and positive switch to Baird.

8 PEACEFUL BATTLE
4yo filly missed by a nose at a mile over a soft course here then came right back to score around two turns last out for trainer Neil Pessin. Another step forward today makes her a major contender with Alvarado up.

9 HELLO JAKE
Scored her maiden win at the expense of Peaceful Battle 3 starts back then finished close in both starts against winners. Castanon in the irons offsets the outside post.
PADDOCK RACE THREE
#4 WOLSFELD WOODS showed light kidney sweat, others all ok.
BETTING RACE THREE
With the line favorite scratched #1 PRINCEVILLE CONDO is the even money choice with 15 minutes to post.
TRIP NOTES RACE TWO
#7 CUPID'S BESTrated in 5th between horses, moved up to challenge the leaders from the outside, drove into the lead and proceded to dust the field. #1 FORTHELOVEOFMONEY was near the back early, came out for the drive and closed well to finish a clear 2nd. The others were not a factor. #4 DIVINITY DOLL broke 2 lengths slow.
ANALYSIS RACE THREE
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 3

1 PRINCEVILLE CONDO
4yo Morluc gelding has yet to finish out of the money in six career starts, all at a distance on the turf, for Michele Boyce while winning 3. Turns back to a mile today where he is a perfect 3 for 3. The choice with Graham up.

5 LUCKMAN
Posted back to back wins off the claim by Dale Bennett this spring and, after a troubled trip in stake at Canterbury, came back with a game effort here last out. Prefers more ground but still capable with Baird.
PADDOCK RACE TWO
All of these two year olds were well behaved and looked ok.
BETTING RACE TWO
Not much unusual with 15 minutes to post. #9 ECLIPTICALS WHISKY is dead on the board at 17-1, twice his line price.
#3 UNDAUNTED ONE tracked the early leader #4 MORITZ, drove into a daylight lead in mid-stretch then held the closers at bay. #1 DON PIETRO was near the back of the pack to the stretch turn, advanced between horses and was gaining on the winner at the wire. First timer #6 SWEEP AWAY found his best stride too late but finished well for 3rd.
ANALYSIS RACE TWO
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 2

2 ABLE
2yo Forest Camp filly turned in a solid debut here in July facing MSW company, beating over half of the 11 horse field at odds of 49-1. She failed to move forward in her second trip to the post after using up all of her energy prior to the start and while in the gate. Trainer Emmagene Schwan is definitely having one of her best meets here this year and has given this filly plenty of time to regroup. She just posted a sharp 5F work on 9-17. She’s the choice to earn her diploma this time around taking that big drop from MSW to maiden claiming. This barn has won with 2 of the last 4 horses making this move. Campbell has the return call.

6 MARDI GRAS INDY
Was compromised by a troubled break here last out under today's same conditions, her first start off the claim by Tom Amoss, but still ran 4th. Barn adds blinkers now, a winning move 30% of the time, making her the main threat with Razo up.

7 CUPID’S BEST
Posse filly from the barn of Wayne Catalano just missed in her 4th start here last out, beaten 1/2 length facing restricted MSW company. She faces open company for a tag today and merits respect.
PADDOCK RACE ONE
#2 PAPA RAFA was on his toes and looks good. The others were all ok.
ADDITIONAL LATE SCRATCHES
RACE 8
#2 Ice Mist

RACE 9
#1 Aka Lily's Lad

RACE 11
#4 X Marker
BETTING RACE ONE
With 20 minutes to post the first time starter #6 SWEEP AWAY has been bet down to 5-1 from a line price of 30-1.
ANALYSIS RACE ONE
ANALYSES OF THESE HORSES ARE PLACED IN POST POSITION ORDER. THESE ARE NOT MY SELECTIONS.

RACE 1

2 PAPA RAFA
3yo turned in an even effort in his debut here last out for triple today's tag. Has posted two good works since and with the drop in class this time around is more then capable of improving for a share.

7 REWIRING
3yo colt finished game 3rds sprinting at Turfway in his first two trips to the post last fall and returned to a sprint on synthetic here last out in his first start for Shannon Ritter. Strong effort pressing a quick pace before tiring and, with the drop in class, blinkers off and the switch to Karlsson, is the choice.

8 LITTLE FEAT
Has hit the board in both tries at today's distance and class level since dropping in late July for trainer Hugh Robertson. Beaten only a head last out and can prove a factor here with Castanon aboard.
WEATHER, TRACK CONDITION AND LATE SCRATCHES
Weather : 72* Mostly Cloudy
Polytrack: Fast as always
Turf: Yielding
Lane: 1 – Races 4, 9, 10
Lane: 5 - Races 3, 8, 11

LATE SCRATCHES

RACE 1
#9 Sweet Fleet Feet


RACE 3
#2 Tight Grip

RACE 5
#4 Penalty Kick
#12 Don Nico
#13 Saints Surrounded

RACE 11
#1 Professional Grade
#8 Waxing